David Saad's Final 2025 Draft Rankings

Welcome back everyone!

This one’s been a very long time coming and I cannot begin to emphasize how much relief this draft year’s conclusion has brought me (more on that later) but as I look back at the year in this final write-up I find myself with a lot to be thankful for. New friends, new lessons and a small nudge to the right on our old friend the Dunning-Kruger (I hope). In case you wanted a PDF version of this file to read offline, you can find it >here!<

Taking Care of Business

In case this your first time reading up one of my lists, I feel the need to explain that I am not the best writer by any stretch. These rankings are more about having a place to store the ideas I’ve generated over the course of the year. It’ll get a little messy at times but within the allotted time I have to work on projects like this I try to favor function over form.

In addition, I think a bit of background on myself to explain my thought process is important if you’re trying to see my angle, a list without a philosophy is just a list after all.

To me, hockey is a game of behavior and habit. Everyone on the ice is constantly reading and reacting to each other, influencing further and further decision-making at breakneck speeds, weaving a complex tapestry on the ice. What I look for is players that can hold the most authority on the canvas, who are able to influence the state of a game more then anyone else can. To identify these types of players I look for 3 things.

1) Activation. How quickly can a player recognize an action to take? Players who excel here are fast, engaged thinkers, that properly read play away from them and are quick to pounce on the opportunity to make a play. and take …

2) Action. Once you find the opportunity, what are you doing to push play positively? Players who excel here, are highly intelligent and highly skilled. These are the players you want to be the ones gaining, maintaining and building possession, that makes good stuff happen whenever they make a play. How often they are able to do that is informed by…

3) Access. How often is a player capable of activating? While the prior two are about how quickly a player engages, availability measures how often they engage. Players who excel here usually have the inherent athletic tools and/or behavioral traits that allow them play their game at the highest possible level.

To be a professional hockey player, I believe all of these are necessary. To break it down: You got to be able to put yourself in position to do good things, recognize when you can do good things, and then actually do those good things. That’s why you’ll find a pattern of speed, both mental and physical but especially the former, being something I greatly value. The NHL is the fastest game in the world, and its best go through this cycle at speeds that can jar the unprepared.

Where’s your head at?

Just like the reality that this article is 50k+ words of some guy talking about 17-year-olds, some context will be necessary. To be plain, this draft gets weak fast. Alarmingly so. This is the kind of year you want to trade your firsts and I expect a lot of movement to come close to the draft as a result. For comparison, I felt that the “just take who you like” vibe started hitting at around mid round 3 last year. This year, I can see it starting as early as round 2; hell maybe even round 1. Point is this draft’s depth is weak, it’s been known.

I’ve kinda resigned to being a good deal more forgiving then I’d generally be, as my threshold for ignoring my inner voice saying “I just like him” was at an all-time low. I do think I might have been too stubborn/too optimistic in some spots, but the draft is 3 days away at the timing of my writing this segment and I think this class has already received enough of my attention

Anyway enough of the preamble. On to the meat and potatoes.

Tier 1 - The Best … Around

1) Matthew Schaefer - LD - Erie Otters (OHL)

It’s been a real long time since any defenseman has been as universally acclaimed as Matthew Schaefer, and for good reason. There’s nothing lacking in this kid’s profile; he’s got the frame, tools, and skill necessary to play the position at the highest level, and his core strengths are just absurdly good.

The skating is the crown jewel in Schaefer’s repertoire. There’s no real spot of weakness; Schaefer explodes in straight lines, bringing agility and mobility in all four directions, has a gorgeous stride, and brings sharp, deceptive edge work as well. There’s virtually nothing keeping Schaefer from where he needs to be at any given moment, and Schaefer knows it but constantly applies it in an intelligent, thoughtful fashion. Sure, the moments Schaefer takes off to join the offense and contribute off the rush are awesome. He’s a rocket with the puck and has some of the most jaw-dropping three-zone carries I’ve seen this year, attacking with speed, deception, and decisiveness while bringing the intelligence to measure the risk. It’s great, but it’s the more practical stuff that I find Schaefer really excels in. He brings such a healthy aggressiveness to approaching attackers, closing gaps with remarkable speed and clamping options twice as quickly. Once Schaefer closes the distance, the space you have left to work with is generally suffocating. Schaefer always gets the most out of his range, keeping his stick active and in effective locations while being practically impossible to maneuver around. The application and omnipresence of Schaefer’s mobility is a testament to his skill level. Whether he's anticipating an opponent's move or quickly transitioning between offensive and defensive positions, Schaefer's agility and awareness make him a formidable presence in any situation.

Schaefer compounds that elite mobility with even more elite puck skill. It’s not just Schaefer’s ability to get places that makes him so special, but how he gets there. He’s so good at protecting the puck, toying with different parts of his skillset to problem solve in remarkable fashion. His stickhandling is so damn good. He’ll tap the puck through defenders triangles, accelerate and collect the puck behind them, and incorporate fakes and cuts with pace changes to throw off defenders’ timing. He anticipates when defenders close in on him, hard reads them, and finds ways to get himself out of harm’s way immediately. Schaefer’s not afraid of using that frame of his, either, placing the puck in one hand and driving the net with his shoulder if given the chance. Even in that position, Schaefer’s shown good accuracy and power at getting the puck off his stick with purpose.

Usually, this skill exists to enable his playmaking, another offensive tool where Schaefer lands among the top of the class. He’s got such a good map of the ice and brings outstanding vision. Always moving the puck with purpose and varying his approach with some of the nastiest feeds that we’ve seen this year. The output itself constantly impresses too; his placement, power, and angles are all virtually flawless. I really love watching how it adds a benefit to Schaefer’s defensive game, making stops and immediately building on it with fast one-touch plays or booming down-ice passes to hit a forward in stride. It’s a real testament to how quickly Schaefer thinks the game, and I think it’s what’s going to carry him to NHL stardom.

I can continue to glaze Matthew Schaefer until the entire article is about things he does right, because it really feels like there’s no limit to it. The better question really is: What doesn’t Schaefer do? I had the time to revisit him in getting this article ready, as the ghosts that saw Michael Misa land at 1 on my board in February taunted me to doubt him, but I came away with nothing to nitpick. Does he want to create offense a little too much? He’s too skilled and wants to use it too often? That’s not a complaint you’re going to see me make in my lifetime.

Schaefer is just that guy; he’s H.I.M. Being one of the best pure movers in the class, bringing a confidence and finesse to every shift, a super high-skilled handler and insanely high-IQ playmaker, and an efficient, calculated, smart defender wrapped up in all the physical tools you can ask for. For my money, this is the best defensive prospect since 2018. Sure, the bout with mono and the injuries muddy the timeline a little bit, but I can’t help but believe this isn’t a conversation in the slightest if we are talking about a Matthew Schaefer that played as the defensive anchor for Canada at the World Juniors as a 17-year-old. The runway, the potential, the skill, the general feel of the next coming drafts. Outside of Landon DuPont, there may not be a defenseman on the same level this decade. If I am the Isles, this is a no-brainer.

2) Michael Misa - C - Saginaw Spirit (OHL)

You guys know that one person who you find is living your ideal life? Their job is easy, their relationships are good, their family is fun, they do what they love, they are in fantastic shape, and so on and so forth. That’s sort of how I feel watching Michael Misa.

It feels like a century ago, but some might recall that wasn’t always the case. Misa had underperformed in his D-1, as he played his first full season after a knee injury that saw him miss almost the entirety of his D-2 season. Consensus coming into the season had Misa in the top 5 bubble alongside guys like Roger McQueen, Anton Frondell, and Ivan Ryabkin. Unlike the rest, though, Misa came into the season with a lot of questions to answer. Is he too soft? Is he a center? Why does he always look so lost? Without the elusive step, can he survive at higher levels?

Safe to say, Misa heard the music and came out with a vengeance and quickly put that skepticism to bed. We’ve always known Michael Misa to lead with his hockey sense and overall intelligence, but the degree to which we saw it applied this season was past the stratosphere. It’s one thing to be so smart and so skilled that you can do anything; it’s another to do everything. It all starts with his ability to get the puck; few players touched the puck more this season than Michael Misa, largely because he’s so good at positioning himself. Forget right place, right time; Misa plays in superposition, always finding himself in the perfect spot to make a play on the puck. Once in range, Misa’s tenacity to fight for possession is notable. He’s so good at typing up hands, lifting sticks, and swiftly taking and corralling the puck on a turn; but you can’t mind the tie-up too much because Misa’s swift stick-checking is just as prominent. He hits both of these with such consistently good timing so as to minimize the risk of getting a penalty called, which is something I really appreciate. Then, the vision to plan out transition shows up. Misa reads the ice like truly only a few can, like he’s entered a flow state. Misa picks his routes, plans his attacks, and penetrates defensive layers like nobody’s business. Skilled as he is, Misa never places himself in situations where he needs to rely on it to get out of a jam. More often than not, he does delegate the zone entry responsibility to Epperson or Chernyshov, but that’s another example of just how Misa orchestrates play, putting his teammates in spots where they can do the most damage. Even when delegating, the motor constantly keeps him in play, giving teammates an out in case things go south. Once in the zone, it’s practically a matter of time until Misa generates something; he is the leading scorer in the OHL for a reason. Again, the positioning never fails Misa as he constantly anticipates ways to get involved to maintain possession or stays open to let a teammate find him. No matter where Misa is in the offensive zone, he’s got a plan to score. Again, the ability to find gaps in defenses is best in class: east-west movement, precise and timely passing, a good release complimented by fantastic shot selection, deception to move defenders, constantly moving to soft ice, the desire to attack the middle, and the willingness to go to the net. There are a bajillion ways for Misa to beat defenders, and he employs them constantly, quickly, and efficiently, playing chess as the rest of us bang rocks together. I can’t begin to emphasize how important it is that Misa puts the whole package together at remarkable speed. Misa’s skill and IQ could offer him the opportunity to rest on his laurels without possession, but he doesn’t; rather, Misa is probably one of the better forecheckers in this draft. Same thing with defensive zone play, but again that’s not an issue because Misa hauls ass like few can, backchecking, getting into carriers faces, getting down low and supporting his defenders, and taking over for them positionally when they pinch. Misa works so damn hard to take every advantage, to make every play, and it’s what will jettison him into stardom and the hearts of his coaches and fans.

The only nitpick I can give is that Misa isn’t the most physically imposing player. But to call Misa soft would be to miss the mark, and to say Misa doesn’t play in contact would be to strike oncoming traffic. Misa’s physicality is subtle and usually applied for the purpose of buying himself space. Rather, it’s an honest skill how little Misa interacts with that physical game. Who cares about winning board battles when you never get pinned? Who cares about laying a dude out in open ice when you can pick his pocket and be two strides ahead of him by the time he notices?

So why Misa at 2? I honestly don’t have a good case other than “I like Schaefer more” and the scarcity of high-end defensemen that we’ve seen in recent history. Misa still absolutely projects as a first-line center, and I imagine San Jose is salivating at the idea. To me this is as cut-and-dry a 1A/1B situation as we have seen since Taylor/Tyler for me. Flip a coin. There’s no going wrong with Michael Misa, and I fully expect him to be the fastest player in this draft class to earn his stripes as an NHLer.

Tier 2 - Stand Proud. You’re Strong.

3) James Hagens - C - Boston College (NCAA)

Hagens, to me, is still the guy I saw as being a first overall option back in December. Sure, he’s dropped since then, but through no fault of his own. It’s just that his competition happens to be the best junior defenseman in the last half decade and a near goal-a-game center having the most productive OHL draft-eligible campaign since Connor McDavid. Hard to beat that.

But all of that aside, if Hagens wasn’t in the NCAA, would he be in the conversation all the same? This is still a supremely skilled player, particularly off the rush, where I find Hagens is second to none below him. He’s a dynamic skater that can show serious separation speed, bringing both fluidity to his stride and sharpness to his edges. When it comes to getting the puck through all three zones, nobody does it faster and with more control than Hagen. The pure skill level that he’s able to unlock in those situations is jaw-dropping, and boy, does Hagen ever try some crazy stuff. I’ve seen Hagens hit tape-to-tape passes out of mid-air; I’ve seen him pull pucks between his legs from a passing stance, getting passes off from behind his back, and his ability to use his backhand to swap between his hands at such quick speeds—there’s a bottomless bag of tricks. To pull off these plays at the speed and pace Hagen is able to is undoubtedly rare, and I’ve been consistently impressed at the creativity he employs to make these plays reality. There’s just not a lot of guys this year that can make these quick-strike passes while thinking on the fly so well, never mind the variety of contexts that Hagens pulls it out in. Along the walls, on a loose puck, off the cycle, I can go on, but they’re almost always concluded in strong ways. Shot attempts, high danger chances, or getting a guy into scoring position. It’s something I place a lot of value in as a really good indicator of some really strong processing that will help keep Hagens not only alive but effective at higher levels.

This slippery, finesse style has given Hagens the reputation of being “soft,” and that would’ve been a fair point to make going into the year; but Hagens has made a lot of progress adding that to his game as the year has gone on. He’s gotten notably more involved in the forecheck, sticking to guys and corralling them to the wall. He’s hitting way more, definitely involved in adding pressure. I think the largest thing gating Hagens physically is purely a lack of upper-body strength. Sure, he’s older for the class, but at almost 5’11 and 180, I’d say there’s still room to add there. I also think there are some footwork adjustments you can add so that he doesn’t bounce off those hits so much.

The big issue in Hagens’ game is that he doesn’t seem to quite understand how much is going to be demanded of him at higher levels yet. He’s had a fantastic season, but the bar for NHL players that play his style of game is on the ceiling. Hagens ’just doesn’t have that oomph in him every shift he’s out there, and it’s going to draw attention. His ability to throw himself into these unwinnable situations doesn’t do him any favors, but it certainly showed when he was the main carrier on that Leonard/Perreault line. I found too many moments where Hagens would be just a little too easy to beat, or suppress, or stall, and with the lack of strength to really hold his own, it often made him seem and be quite vulnerable. It’s a definite area for improvement, but I think there’s room for that here. We have seen “the good” Hagens is capable of already; we just need more. Boost the overall athleticism up, instill some habits to make him a bit more resilient, and I think you’ll find Hagens is more than willing to drive the net more often and battle along the wall.

I know Hagens has gotten a ton of flak recently, and I don’t exactly think it’s without cause, but my word, if it isn’t the strongest piece of evidence that the consensus at large will need to adjust to the NCAA timeline. The poor impression of his last game vs. reigning champion Denver not going the way he may have wanted and the 2 months of other players still putting out performances leaves a ton of room for recency bias to click in, and I think it’s on full display here, not to mention the late-stage overanalysis I am certain is happening. Like it or not, Hagens is definitely one of the highest-upside players this class has to offer and is one of the very few that presents high-end upside. I said at the start, I’m saying it to close, and I’ll say it again: Hagens was a first overall contender for a reason.

4) Porter Martone - RW - Brampton Steelheads (OHL)

If there’s anything Martone has done this season, it’s subvert expectations. He started his campaign on fire, going band for band with Michael Misa (and actually winning that race) going into the world juniors. At which point a gear seemed to have turned, and Martone slowly petered out for the rest of the season, causing a fair degree of spook in the community.

I would be wary of overcorrecting, though, as Martone still brings a ton of upside to the table. He’s got that size, skill, and playmaking combo that’s all the rave lately, and he has definitely shown a capacity to use all of it to great effect. Few players are able to see the ice as well as he does and then have the confidence to rifle the puck cross-ice on a dare. His ability to react to changes in play and time his passes through the chaos has been a consistent point that has stuck out to me as a strong showcase of his skill. The spots he does this can be ludicrous at times, making me question how he saw or even if he actually saw his opening, but I find it adds to the allure of the player. This is a guy that’s constantly finding ways to surprise, incorporating deception, and having these really advanced ideas while having the pinpoint accuracy to hit some really wacky stuff. This is a trait that I find carries over into his shot. Again, super accurate and explodes off his stick. The offensive zone package in Martone is just undeniably elite, and it’s got room to grow.

But when you zoom the lens out, there are a few holes to poke. For being such a big player, Martone is really selective on when to play like one. There definitely are strong moments; I think it comes out a ton when he’s active on the forecheck. He gets more than his fair share of hard reads and times his engagements with remarkable precision, but there are also moments when the engagement dries up and he makes himself an easy target to blow past. That lack of presence, dawg, is also notable on the puck. Martone stops up at the line a good deal and rarely makes something more than a turnover out of it if his teammates aren’t giving him routes to hit. There’s no reason for Martone to be placed in those situations; his skating isn’t so weak, and he’s definitely got the frame to protect the puck and power through these defensive lines, but he doesn’t. Martone could find ways to get pucks deep and get to the net, but he doesn’t. Martone doesn’t need to be a power forward to be effective, but that doesn’t mean his game must be absent of power. There’s also an inherent risk that Martone’s style of play demands. The reverse of hitting these big, banging passes is that when he misses, it’s noticeable. Doubly so when he’s not hustling back to cover up.

I think Martone is currently at a developmental crossroads. Either he keeps doing what he’s doing and he projects as this Dubois-type, bridesmaid-never-a-bride type of player that you need to shelter and create perfect conditions for to get the most out of. Or he locks in, plays with that engagement, urgency, and force that we know he can, and maybe he realizes some of that ceiling as a first-line, needle-moving playmaker he’s teased us with.

Personally, I am giving Martone the benefit of the doubt with this spot. I get the concerns and the desire to drop him out of a top 5; but he’s played a ton of hockey in the past 2 seasons, definitely had his confidence shot after the world juniors, and just seemed gassed by season end. I know his time with the Canadian men’s team for the IIHF World Cup was short, but it gave me a taste of that two-way effort I was looking for. Sure, it didn’t do much to bolster my opinion on his strengths or make me think he’s any closer to the NHL, but I think he’s proven that all his bigger faults are things that he can grow out of.

5) Victor Eklund - RW - Djugardens IF (HockeyAllsvesnskan, Sweden)

I can’t believe it is considering “reaching” to rate Victor Eklund this highly. For a draft starved for offensive talent, passing on the most productive draft-eligible forward the Allsvenskan has shot out since Elias Pettersson, while matching the Canucks star’s goal total, feels crazy to me.

Eklund’s highlight to me has always been the dawg in him. This is, for my money, the most competitive player in the class. Eklund just refuses to let himself get beaten, even; he’ll grind it out down-low, get in on races, and take all the punishment that comes as a result. Even when outmuscled, Eklund is never outworked; he will constantly find ways to reassert himself in these battles, get his stick in, and halt advances to get support. That tenacity constantly earned Eklund second and third opportunities, a pattern that continued in Eklund’s contributions on the forecheck. He closes his gaps so quickly and just manages to get enough contact to make plays turn with remarkable consistency. Even if Eklund doesn’t create a turnover immediately, the pressure is so immediate and often jarring that it disrupts a play’s rhythm and finds itself in Djugardens hands not long after. At times, it felt like an inevitability that the puck was going to find Eklund just because his relentless energy level kept him in every play, every contest, and every challenge that unfolded.

The dog kept giving Eklund opportunities to use that speed and skill of his, and as emblematic of his status defined above, it’s pretty good. Eklund’s skating has seen massive growth and has become a definitive strength. His evasiveness is a cut above the rest, using his edges to constantly mix up his directions and buy space for himself. The stuff he tries never fails to entertain: spins, feints, dekes, through the legs—stuff I don’t even think has a proper name—he pulls these out at such high speeds that you get the feeling this guy is just gonna do what he wants. A feeling that must be common for defenders tasked with holding Eklund back on zone entries. Eklund is generally not the most directly involved transition player, often presenting as a strong off-puck route runner in defensive transitions, but when he does, it often ends up on a highlight reel. Eklund is so good at finding soft ice, slamming the gas, and finding a way to penetrate defensive layers. Even if he’s not the one carrying the puck, Eklund’s naturally net-driven and brings a strong small-area game as well. Fighting for space, compounding advantages, and sustaining pressure for as long as possible. That’s not to say that Eklund’s purely a mover and facilitator; there’s a wicked shot on him too. Snappy and accurate, Eklund’s wrister constantly catches me off guard when watching it. He masks the timing of his release exquisitely and isn’t afraid to incorporate his deceptive footwork to further complicate things for opposing goaltenders.

While Eklund does bring value in transition, I still find it to be a major area for growth. Small as he is, Eklund struggles with protecting the puck super well with his body and is often reliant on his skill and spacing to keep defenders at bay. Rather, it’s what he does once he gets in the zone that can at times draw concern. Eklund’s a little too trigger-happy to shoot at nothing from the high circle, a pattern that’s definitely killed its fair share of plays. The shot is great, and I can understand Eklund’s desire to get the most out of it, but he’d find a lot more success holding the puck for a little longer and assessing his options deeper in the zone. A habit that should greatly decrease the number of chances wasted as well as give Eklund the time to correctly assess his options as well as close his distance so his shot doesn’t need to travel as far. I believe that this is a result of a disconnect between how fast Eklund is moving and his actual processing ability. There are times when Eklund bobbles pass receptions and others when he will think too far ahead of a play, overwhelming himself with scenarios and fanning on the requisite play as a result. I think tuning Eklund’s thinking away from the 1vAll situations he at times places himself into will greatly alleviate that.

In case it’s not clear, I adore this player, and I have found it increasingly challenging to not see him as a potential top-6 forward. He checks a lot of my boxes and plays such a projectable style that I feel it's a matter of time. With some added physical development and a full year in the SHL ahead of him, I am really excited to see the player that comes out the other side. I feel like he may be closer to the NHL than we think, and that should be a possibility that excites everyone.

6) Cullen Potter - F - Arizona State University (NCAA)

NASA’s Parker Solar Probe. Cosmic Rays. Gravitational Waves. Light. Cullen Potter. To me, speed is the biggest reason most NHL dreams die out; most players can’t think fast enough to survive the fastest game on earth. There is no such concern with Cullen Potter, who does both things at, dare I say, an NHL level already? If not, it’s pretty damn close; I’d bet he ends up as one of the best skaters in the NHL someday. There are few players, generally, who bring the full repertoire Potter has in his explosiveness in straight lines, dynamism on their edges, and fluidity in his motions. No matter how high you are on the player, it’s an elite tool; there’s little debate in that, but it’s the way Potter applies it that has him this high for me.

Sure, the flash that you’d expect on the puck is definitely present. Potter’s definitely demonstrated remarkable ability as a puck-carrier and off-puck route runner. He bursts through open ice like a bullet through a barrel, his speed in and of itself creating lanes by virtue of a couple of strides in the right direction. The skill is regularly on display too; Potter just refuses to let defenders close the gap on their terms. He can dangle his way out of trouble if need be, but more often than not, his evasive footwork does all the work for him. He’ll hit a couple shimmies, place defenders on their heels, and reload or just simply alter his angle to stay out of their effective range. Once in space, Potter has no issue letting that shot of his fly. It’s got some snap, and it comes out fast. Potter’s ability to get that release off accurately, even in motion, has the ability to catch goalies sleeping. Even though his counting stats don’t suggest it, I’d say he actually leans more as a playmaker. I find it’s the spot where his creativity comes out the most, as Potter elegantly problem-solves his way through pressure. One-touch plays, using the walls, drop passes, and using his speed to open up lanes are all things Potter finds ways to do with regularity. His handling elevates his angles of approach, letting Potter misdirect defenders, alleviating pressure as quickly as he draws it, and giving his teammates time to operate. Potter tends to apply this in subtle fashions, not really being one for big neutral-zone cross-ice plays, but he has high-end ideas that get the puck into the slot quick and often, while putting his teammates in good positions to make the most of it. I would really like to see Potter use it more, particularly when attacking the offensive zone laterally, but the foundations are here while carrying a ton of potential for growth.

The main stalling point for that growth, like Eklund before him, has been Potter’s bad habit of low % shot taking. His over 20 shot attempts per 60 placed him in the range of noted goal scorers like Matthew Wood and Aidan Fink. To be fair, Potter’s shot is good, as noted earlier, but he’s too inefficient in his application, far too willing to settle on ripping one from mid-range. At times, he’ll show some pretty damning tunnel vision and look off of teammates in favor of calling his own number. I’d really like to see Potter getting deeper in the offensive end and driving to the net more. Even if the end result is the same, Potter may surprise himself with the options that become available by taking the extra time.

But the offensive ability isn’t the only reason I have Potter rated so highly. Rather, it’s the off-puck game that’s done nothing but flourish since he landed in Arizona State. It’s one thing to be fast and skilled; players like that come and go all the time; just peep at Russian Junior. It’s another thing to be fast and constantly practical. Potter may miss a shot 20 ft wide and see a breakout go the other way as a result, but few of those skilled, offensively leaning players use that speed to haul ass on the backcheck, break plays up, and get the puck in the right direction again. Potter’s done that so many times in my viewings that it’s borderline comical. Covering his behind aside, Potter is playing center for a reason. He covers his defenders and supports play down-low; he remains engaged and positionally aware, staying in opposing forwards effective ranges. I have seen some really good man-to-man defending with Potter being able to match guys stride-for-stride along the blue line, keeping his stick active and timing his poke checks effectively. Sure, he’s not a physically dominating player, but he’s not afraid to throw his fair share of hits, take inside body positioning, move the puck along the wall, or get his hands dirty and compete. There’s no softness here.

The most initially perplexing thing I’ve heard all season was the term “stupid” being used to describe Potter. It took me a while to wrap my head around it, but I can understand why this opinion may be formed. Potter’s lack of efficiency, tendency to tunnel, and impatience can give that impression. At the least, it doesn’t let his hockey sense really shine in ways that it could. That said, I think that’s a really tough label to affix to a 17-year-old playing in the NCHC, the toughest division at the highest level of junior hockey. I find that speaks to the undervaluation of how difficult the NCAA is that came up with Hagens as well. Really, rather than a matter of intelligence or hockey sense, what I find Potter lacks is a sense of tranquility. The jump to NCAA speed definitely took him a while to get a hold of, and it’s only when Potter started going 100 miles a minute every time he touched the ice that things started to turn in his favor. The downside to that being, once you turn it on, it’s really hard to turn off. I wouldn’t deny that Potter is creating more as a result of his speed and what it can afford him rather than his sense. Still, that doesn’t mean the mental game isn’t present. I find that Potter’s main strength comes from being able to take these standstill, lulled moments and be the cause of change. He makes the game faster just by being on the ice. I expect that as Potter properly acclimates to playing this speed more consistently, the injection of habits will come in naturally.

Honestly though, even if it didn’t, it wouldn’t change my mind on Potter being one of the highest-upside guys the class has to offer and one of the few players I have had any measure of confidence seeing as a potential top-6 forward, while bringing an underrated floor due to just how otherworldly the skating is. To tell me Cullen Potter can’t at least be a Kasperi Kapanen? Ya. No chance.

7) Anton Frondell - F - Djugardens IF (HockeyAllsvesnskan, Sweden)

Frondell is a player I feel oddly attuned to. Community opinions on him have swayed back and forth wildly this season, but outside of a brief moment of weakness following the World Juniors, he’s always been in this range for me. That’s not to say that Frondell did not go without a ton of introspective scrutinizing, but I always came back to the idea that he may be the quickest player in the draft to find meaningful NHL minutes.

The traits that make Frondell valuable are evergreen. He’s super proactive, showcasing high-end awareness on the regular and constantly adjusting to fit what the play in front of him needs in real Swiss Army knife fashion. It’s not uncommon for Frondell to close a gap and take a dude to the wall and pin them up right as they receive the puck or find a way to get the inside step on his defensive assignments, contesting the skater’s route and then planting his feet. The effect of that physicality is well pronounced too. Frondell’s likely one of the more physically developed prospects this class has to offer. He’s a tank on his feet, immovable along the wall and a real pain to handle at the net front. He actively chases this action too; the first game I saw of Frondell last year had him just sitting around the net front, pushing defenders away from him until the puck came to his feet and he tapped a rebound. He’s insanely good at keeping his stick active in open-space playing, either by attempting to tip the puck or positioning himself to stay open even in these really tight situations. Really, that’s kind of Frondell’s theme: he gets open. He’s a good route-runner, rotates well, and gets where he needs to be. Generally, Frondell gets rewarded for this by getting to unload his cannon of a shot. It’s undoubtedly a weapon and my personal pick for best in-class, but he never locks into it. Frondell will deceive goaltenders who expect the one-timer and settle the puck first or feint a shot before passing it to a teammate. To do all of this, at the Allsvenskan level, against men, and to find offensive success at his historic rate is definitely impressive and proves he merits the hype he’s been getting.

That said, I do think there are some really severe limitations to Frondell’s game that will sort of shoehorn him into a very specific role. Frondell’s skating is average at best, and he really lacks that dynamic separating speed that will make his core tenet of “getting open” a good deal more challenging. Really, the biggest issue the skating creates is a really unemphatic transition game. Frondell is by no means a good neutral zone player; rather, I’d say his entire game revolves around staying out of the neutral zone for as much as possible. Even so, the amount of dumped pucks where Frondell could’ve at least tried to push his luck did leave me disappointed. Considering Frondell’s physical development has likely hit its apex and there’s not been very much progress in improving that this year, it’s hard to confidently say that Frondell won’t continue these struggles at higher levels. Really, I think Frondell is quite close to being a finished product, and while that does likely mean NHL games sooner rather than later, I also think that the room for him to add to his repertoire is sort of dwindling.

With that in mind, I really struggle to see Anton Frondell being a high-end center. I suppose you can play him as a 3rd liner there if you want, but I don’t think he will inspire very much. That said, Frondell’s whole picture really seems to fill a frame of a complementary winger quite well. I would love to see Anton Frondell next to a center like Jack Hughes, who can make up for Frondell’s general honesty by being the dynamic option that gets him out of the defensive zone and in the situations he can excel in. Find a ying to his yang, and you can have a guy that’s able to log a ton of minutes and bring some special team ability too. That would more than justify a top 10 selection.

Tier 3 - The Thick of It

8) Lynden Lakovic - LW - Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)

Lakovic is in the awkward spot of being better than everyone below him but not as good as everyone on top of him. He’s probably the combo of pick/player I am most secure in.

Lakovic, on paper, brings a ton of NHL appeal. He’s tall and lanky, with remarkably good feet for his size. He’s very mechanically sound and showcases his agility constantly, particularly in transition. Not being the type to bulldoze guys, Lakovic opts to dance on his edges, using his long reach and tall frame to constantly push the puck out of their reach. It’s not uncommon for Lakovic to bait defenders into attempting to play the puck just for him to pull it back or place it through their reach. Once Lakvoic creates that space in the offensive end, his strong hockey IQ and dual-threat ability take over, making him a dangerous dual-threat. For most of my viewings, Lakovic’s passing game was what shone; he’s a master at getting pucks off the wall and subsequently getting them through the middle of the ice or the slot for teammates. It’s definitely the more explored tool in his kit; few forwards in the CHL pass the puck more frequently than Lakovic, but revisiting him in making this list really sold me on his shot as well. He’s got a heat-seeker in his wrist, and like with his passing, the accuracy at which Lakvoic picks his spots is really remarkable. It’s already rare for players of this size to do this much on the puck, but the players who manage to do all of that while bringing a strong stride to the list? That’s a really small list and should speak really well to his NHL value.

But Lakovic has some allegations to address first. Sure, he doesn’t bring that typical power-forward game. Like I alluded to earlier, he’s not about bulldozing his way through pressure but rather absorbing and maneuvering around it. I am sure that’s put a frown on many a scout’s face this year, and it’s true that Lakovic must improve that side of the game. There’s no reason a player this big and strong should struggle against the boards and down-low as well as he does. Even compared to a similarly styled player in Martone, Lakovic makes him look like Ryane Clowe. He definitely started progressing to that as the season wore on, notably making an effort to make proactive contact and battle for inside positioning, but I still really wanted to see more fight in him. Even if I don’t think Lakovic is likely to grow much further, I still believe there’s some room to fill out and see him become the power forward GMs will want him for. If that added muscle creates a version of Lakovic that has an extra step or a thirst for blood, he’s going to make coaches and fans very happy and really do a lot for pushing the vision of this player being a top-6 forward.

Still, that lack of direct physicality has made some question his effort and competitive level. I don’t really buy into that. Lakovic’s 83-point pace this season may prevent him from topping the WHL table, but I think it’s also a testimony to the … situation in Moose Jaw at the moment. No draft-eligible player in the last decade has scored more than Lakovic while playing on a team that has failed to win 20 games; the Warriors won 15. Can’t say Lakovic isn’t driving the bus either, still holding a double-digit lead over the next highest teammate in points despite a difference in games played of over 20. That’s not even mentioning the lower-body injury that sidelined him for a month and a half. Even if I can empathize with wanting Lakovic to maintain more shift-to-shift intensity, I struggle to come away with the conclusion that he’s not a competitor, and if he isn’t, it surely hasn’t impacted his results. I really don’t know what more you could reasonably ask of him given the scenario.

There’s still some truth to the concerns levied with Lakovic. Yes, he absolutely does need to get more physical and is way behind the bar of where he could be as he is. Yes, there are swathes of time where Lakovic can fade into the background and really make you wonder if he can be a line driver at higher levels. I just think that these are easier issues, if they are issues at all, and are way easier fixes than players further down this list. Sure, you may not be getting a star player here, but there’s absolutely grounds for an elite complimentary option that will drive good results and push the needle offensively; something I think is in short supply this year. Give the kid a little faith, and I think the payoff can be massive.

9) Logan Hensler - RD - University of Wisconsin (NCAA)

I’ve been really up-and-down on Hensler all year. I went into the season thinking he was gonna round out my top 5, barely holding him in my first round come March and shooting him back up to the top 10 now. Hensler himself suffered from a very up-and-down year that reflects that, understandable considering the massive jump in responsibility and play in the NCAA. What made me come around? In a draft wrought with uncertainty and incomplete players, Hensler is a guy that I am comfortable picking.

The appeal in Hensler is plain. He’s got a good physical profile with super fluid skating. It’s the core tool that will keep people coming back to him. In his time with the NTDP, Hensler was highly exciting as a two-way option. He was contributing offensively, jumping into plays when appropriate, giving forwards outs in tough situations. There was a sinking feeling that Hensler could’ve used that offensive side of his a bit more, but I think his forte has always been off the puck. Hensler tries to play mistake-free hockey, and he fit in that club nicely as an insulator on the 2nd pair. His willingness to use his frame and physical tools behind in dirty areas as well as taking on all-comers off the rush made him a strong defensive option, with the puck distribution to push play out of his zone once he made that stop.

Like I alluded to earlier, the leap to the NCAA forced Hensler to adjust. He was no longer the 2nd pairing option but THE defensive anchor on a struggling Wisconsin team. Nothing that made Hensler appealing showed up in his early tape; he struggled heavily on retrievals, handling NCAA speed at both ends of the puck, and was largely playing to keep his head above water. As he got more comfortable, that slowly started to dissipate, and we started seeing a more confident, more equipped version of Hensler around mid-season. His added proactivity was the biggest difference maker; he was placing his body between opponents and the puck on retrievals and executing his plays with much more speed and decisiveness. From there, Hensler’s play really started to snowball. He was showing off his skill a bit more, getting confident with his hands. He was jumping on the rush again and trying to push play up-ice himself a lot more. He was playing more aggressively at the offensive blue line, working hard to extend offensive possessions. Away from the puck, Hensler started playing a tighter game, closing his gaps, stepping into attackers’ space, and disrupting advances and developments with strong stickwork. I think it’s a real shame that Wisconsin, as a team, struggled so heavily throughout the year. Their season ending in early March, right as Hensler was humming along, might’ve killed some strong momentum and soured him in the public eye, as it has been over 3 months as of my writing this that there’s been nothing to watch from him.

The more I’ve watched Hensler, the more confident I have grown in the belief that there is an NHL player here. He’s got everything he needs to be a top-4 defender to some capacity, but to what end was a bit of a mystery for most of the year. Personally, I think Hensler would really play well as a foil on a top pair to a high-offense team. Someone who can play with talent, facilitate it, while holding his own the whole way. If not, a play-driving top-4 option isn’t outside the realm of possibility either. There are a ton of players who have found success in this fashion, but Hensler’s got some ground to gain. Could he add some meanness and become a more physical option or unlock some more offense as he grows more comfortable, or is he just tailored to becoming a pure shutdown option? Only Hensler can answer that, but the wide range of possibilities does not discourage me from the upside and potential for growth here. If there’s anything I have gleaned from Hensler’s season, it’s that he’s a fast learner. The foundations, the trajectory, and the room for growth are all super appealing, and I believe that with some direction and a bit of support around him, Hensler can come out of this class as one of the premier defenders. He’s one of the very few players I am relatively confident in becoming an impact player at this range due to his comparative lack of weaknesses.

10) Carter Bear - LW - Everett Silvertips (WHL)

I really struggled to write about Bear; how do you analyze a player where so much revolves around determination and effort? Sure, anyone can point to it being there or not being there, but to actually point to it as a marquee tool, that’s something I find Bear is unique in. He plays a very demanding style of hockey, where he wills things into happening, and he does so at an alarming rate. But I don’t think that it’s all going to carry over, and he’s likely going to end up as a complimentary top-9 winger as a result. He has the skills to pay those bills. Bear is, for my money, the best puck retriever in the draft. Bringing the speed to get up in every battle, finding ways to take the inside away from defenders, and quickly finding a way to build on it. The details in his small area game never fail to impress. He approaches each battle with remarkable timing, hitting his intentional points of contact and immediately getting the puck into a spot where he can progress play. From there, he builds up pressure with his great hockey IQ, bringing a tactical understanding that lets him quickly string multiple ideas together. With his quick hands, strong puck protection, and decisive puck movement, Bear is just a naturally challenging forward to suppress. A skill that comes in handy away from the puck too, where Bear’s aggressiveness becomes intense coverage play. He dashes to cover lanes, corrals defenders into the boards, takes every wall play, and sacrifices his body on the regular.

Bear has played his game to great success at the WHL level; there’s no doubting that, but I do wonder about his ability to translate it to the NHL. Bear’s flaws are quite pronounced. He’s very straight-lined and doesn’t use the width of the ice as well as he could. He’s not the biggest player and, despite his strength and competitiveness, will probably struggle to replicate his current success. Bear is interior driven, but his game tends to find him struggling to get off from along the walls more often than not. He’s skilled but not likely to be a play-driver, projecting as a more complimentary piece. He’s physical, but he’s not imposing. He’s quick, but he’s lacking that separation gear in open ice. Generally, Bear’s game is very honest. Sure, there’s some deception in his handling, but he lacks the really high-end talent or agility to really stretch the ice and take over games.

What separates Bear for me is that he’s already shown precedent in adapting to different games. Prior to his junior career, Bear was a sniper. Then he adapted to a net-front option in his D-1, where he acquired those physical habits and the strong small-area game. This year, he’s become a play driver and a leader. He wears the ‘A’ on this Silvertips team for good reason, leading by example every night. Highly engaged, always aware, physically demanding. Even if I think Bear is more likely to be an energy middle-six option right now. I definitely see the potential for a highly effective top-6 complimentary option here in the same vein that some other outlets rate him as. Considering the history and the body of work Bear has put down, I think betting against him at the moment would be unwise.

At the end of the day, I just don’t feel any more confident in any of the players further down. Everyone in this tier has their own checks and balances, but Bear’s got the attitude, the potential, and the history to earn the benefit of the doubt that he can work through his flaws while still having the floor to get me believing there’s an NHLer here to some capacity. That’s enough for me.

11) Jake O’Brien - C - Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)

I’ve never been O’Brien’s biggest fan, but I’ve always held an appreciation for his game and acknowledged that I am just going to be lower on him than the average person. I was super sour on him at season start, worried he was a soft, perimeter playmaker that played dirty enough to facilitate that game. Something that he forced me to course correct at the midway mark this year.

J.O.’B is one of the smartest players in this draft class, no question about it. It’s always on display when he gets into the offensive end, manipulating defensive structures to create open lanes; he layers deception with feints and angle changes, and he brings strong body positioning to contested pucks, ensuring he’s never approaching a challenge at a disadvantage. He’s lethal in the cycle and on the power play, constantly finding ways to get the puck across the width of the ice and to teammates on the backdoor. The number of assists O’Brien collected by feinting shots just to aim for a yawning teammate’s stick disgusts me. No matter the situation, O’Brien is getting goaltenders to stretch out, and on a team with two amazing shooters in Vanacker and Lardis, it’s no surprise that O’Brien got a healthy number of counting stats under his belt.

While definitely a great tool for projecting O’Brien to the NHL, I do have concerns about the diversity of his game, and there are some underdeveloped factors in his game as a result. The ways O’Brien is finding success are relatively the same night-to-night, and he’s become predictable as a result. A lot of low cross-ice passes where he aims for deflections. A lot of quick plays of the face-off. A lot of quick switches as soon as he hits the line. A LOT of drop passes to Nick Lardis. O’Brien is so wired to move the puck that at times he doesn’t see that holding it is in his best interest. He's very liberal with possession, and I think he can use a bit more caution with the puck. It’s not biting him now, but as O’Brien climbs levels, he’s going to need to learn to use his entire repertoire and not be so honest with how he approaches different situations. O’Brien can deceive defenders on a micro level, changing his angles or his targets with ease, but he’s very honest on the macro level.

His shot is exhibit A; O’Brien’s release can be clunky, and he doesn’t get the best whip on it either. It’s accurate, but he generally gets his best chances from really close range. The rest of the package just sort of projects as average. He’s a fine handler but usually used it as a tool to reinforce the passing game. Layering his passes with changes in timing, angle changes, and subtle re-positioning. He’s a fine skater and a fine puck carrier at that, seeming to project as average across the board. He’s a fine physical player but largely uses it as a tool to protect the puck or get the inside on retrievals. You’re not going to see any highlight-reel hits or intense down-low battling out of O’Brien, and that’s fine. All these tools should serve him fine for his purposes, or at least not hinder his development going forward, but they are all spots you’d like to see improvement.

I really want to see some improvements in his off-puck play. There’s an immaturity there that I think gets often overlooked. When the puck is not in front of him, O’Brien can just be a little bit too unaware of the pressure that the situation calls for. He’s a player that does backtracks well, but the extra effort to stretch out and get his stick into situations isn’t. O’Brien places himself in proper position to collect loose change but doesn’t actually antagonize the opposing puck carriers. I think that with some polish you can rough this out, but what this is truly symptomatic of is a question in its own right. Is it a lack of physical tools that keeps him from getting there? Is it that he doesn’t anticipate the opportunities he has to move the needle in those situations? I think that the answer to that is something that’s going to elude me with the information I have, but I believe that it speaks to the uncertainty I have in projecting him.

Case and point, I do think that O’Brien is skilled, intelligent, and creative, but not to the point that is being advertised. There’s still some legwork to be done if O’Brien is going to be a top-6 center, but there’s a decent B-game for a 3rd-line center if that fails anyway. I find him to be a relatively safe bet, and I’m sure he will be given plenty of resources and opportunities to take his game to a higher level in the coming years. Can you take a guy like this to the top 10? I personally wouldn’t, but I can see the case being made. It would be fine, just fine.

12) Eric Nilson - C - Djugardens IF J20 (J20 Nationell, Sweden)

Oh man. I really do think Eric Nilson comes out of this class a top 5 center. That was not something I expected to happen as I was cooking up this list, but his game has grown on me a ton, and out of the players in this range, I don’t think anyone excites me more.

He plays a fluid, calculated game dictated by strong hockey sense and feet that never relent. He’s a true play-driver, constantly displaying a keen understanding of the game, knowing where to go, what to do, and how to make the best play happen regardless of game state. Nilson’s style of play naturally elevates the players around him, but it’s the details and maturity in his game that keep drawing me back in. These especially show up in how Nilson drives offensive transitions. Not shy to get low and assist defenders before revving his engine and joining his wingers on entries for give-and-gos or establishing possession. Nilson’s adaptability in motion, to see the ice so well that he’s able to confidently make changes on the fly and plan his next play, is a really good showcase of his hockey IQ. The finesse at which this is all executed is a gift that keeps giving, and the result is a shockingly smooth, agile player that feels like he glides into the offensive zone and sets up camp like he just strolled in for a picnic. Once he gets there, Nilson’s playmaking generally takes center stage as he focuses on creating space for teammates rather than solving problems himself. As the season wore on, though, a more inside-driven Nilson appeared, and he was far more willing to take risks and use that accurate release of his. It’s a work-in-progress, but a very promising one.

In true two-way fashion, Nilson’s application of this skillset isn’t limited to his play with possession. He’s a hound on the back and forecheck, a remarkable penalty killer, and brings a surprising amount of physical value as well. Nilson’s always one to finish his checks and maintain the pressure he starts, a strong habit that has netted him many turnovers. Nilson’s ability to read plays and constantly step into the action with precise timing, sticking out a strong step or stick, has been responsible for many a Djugardens breakout.

The craziest part is, Nilson can be better. A lot better. The key area for growth is well … growth. Nilson’s frame is quite small for NHL draft standards, but I don’t believe it’s going to be an issue for much longer. Eric, the son of former NHLer Marcus Nilson, grew to 6’2, 200 LB. Not to say that this is a guarantee for Eric going forward, but there is precedent. Even if he doesn't quite grow as big as his father, Eric is going to Michigan State next season, a school notorious for its ability to make players bulk up. In addition, Nilson has never been one to rely on his skill and doesn’t opt into playing a more honest game as a result, but I think there’s a ton of room to work with if Nilson can get a bit more confident in creating plays individually. A version of Eric Nilson that is bigger, faster, and stronger? Yeah, that will last in the NHL.

It really feels like we are just scratching the surface with what Nilson is capable of, but I am already sold. As he fills out, I expect Nilson to someday fit as a high-end 3C that fits on a PP2 and PK unit, but there’s genuine top-6 upside if the skill comes together too. I can’t help but think of what William Karlsson is like a little bit when I try to project Eric Nilson. That’s a very valuable player to have and one that I am definitely confident taking a gamble on. Really, a lack of boldness and a grown appreciation for some of the players above him are the only things keeping him this low on my list. I can take him higher though. Dare me to do it. I will.

13) Bill Zonnon - F - Rouyn-Nouranda Huskies (QMJHL)

I have a huge soft spot for Zonnon, and I don’t think I’m alone in that. Few players this year have managed to instill as much joy in me as he has, and he brings the tools and the profile to make him a playoff-projectable forward; well, that’s just a bonus.

It didn’t take me long to see the appeal either. Zonnon brings a high-energy, high-pace, high-effort game that never fails to pop off the screen. He combines that style with really smart decision-making, generally centered around the middle of all three zones. Defensively, Zonnon will get low, supporting his defenders, contributing with strong wall play and back pressure. He’s got a great tactical mind for reading plays and anticipating potential puck movement, keeping his stick active to fish for turnovers. He’s naturally engaged, decisive, and confident, all of which greatly benefit him in this area. As soon as possession turns, Zonnon’s ability to orchestrate or facilitate transition comes into focus. The distribution game is there if he’s lacking space, but Zonnon’s puck-carrying ability is the highlight. He’s just such a damn stat-stick, so strong and so fast that pushing him off the puck feels like a fool’s errand. Once he hits the zone, Zonnon’s creativity and playmaking unlock. He was the Huskies’ grand offensive conductor, getting passes through whatever pressure lay in front of him. I think Zonnon’s nimbleness in getting these passes off is quite underrated, as he constantly maneuvers his stick to get passes through and around contact quickly. The number of times that Zonnon was able to create space for teammates in this fashion feels comical. Even after the pass is complete, Zonnon’s off-puck play shines as he regularly correctly routes to the net or to the wall, taking would-be clearances into (more often than not) won battles, kickstarting cycles anew. That off-puck play also comes to a shine away from possession. His high intensity and strong stick make him one of the most effective forecheckers in the draft, but his ability to chase pucks and place fear in defenders with his presence never fails to make me smile. Zonnon’s mere presence can force defenders into poor decisions. If defenders fail to move the puck quickly, Zonnon is sure to punish them, pinning them to the wall, stripping them of possession and dignity before establishing offensive possession on his lonesome. All around, Zonnon looks the part of one of the best checking forwards this class has to offer. He’s played center all year too, and even if he’s pushed to the wings at higher levels, it adds a layer of versatility that I greatly value.

The catch? Zonnon’s skating mechanics are quite underdeveloped. His feet are heavy, he lacks agility, he doesn’t plant his feet really well, and he struggles to consistently play in motion. Some of this Zonnon has powered through by sheer force of will, but there are some things Zonnon just can’t do as a result. He can’t shoot the puck in motion to great effect, often missing the net when doing so. He struggles to evade pressure and must rely on powering through contact. His handling, a tool I think Zonnon could stand to use a little more, gets heavily underutilized as a result. Zonnon has improved as the year has gone on, but considering he’s one of the oldest players in the class, there are some aspects that I really wished to have seen fixed by now. Losing balance on turns, stopping too sharply, and a general lack of 4-way mobility. There’s no denying the clunky nature of Zonnon’s stride.

Even if that stays a below-average tool in Zonnon’s kit, I still believe in his ability to become a highly valuable bottom-six forward. He’s got the profile and the ethic to make it as a checking forward as it is. If that stride does come around to even NHL average, I think Zonnon’s ability to contribute to a top-6 becomes very real. He’ll probably play the same role as a complimentary physical option, but the pace of his play and his growth as the Huskies primary play-driver hint at a player that earned that role. Sure, Zonnon’s key weakness may limit some upside, but I don’t think Zonnon is a riskier bet than the myriad of guys below him, and I see some boom here, which makes me a bit more comfortable taking the swing.

14) Brady Martin - C - Soo Greyhounds (OHL)

Whenever I think about Brady Martin, I wonder how he would be seen if his name was Malte Holst-Davidsson and he was playing for Timrå IK in the SHL. Would the conversation around him really be all the same? Would he still be drawing comparisons to the reigning Conn Smythe Winner? Would he be seen as the most violent player in the draft? Would he be getting top 5 or top 10 consideration? I really don’t think so.

That’s not to say Brady Martin is a bad player by any means; there’s absolutely value to be drawn here. I alluded to it earlier, but he absolutely is the best pound-for-pound hitter in the class. He plants his feet, has good contact throughout, and even though he fishes for those hits at times, they are still mostly happening for a reason; he’s not flattening people without something in mind. That physical prowess continues into his puck play. Martin’s a really good puck protector and can strike fear into the hearts of defenders as he enters the offensive zone with speed. He’s got the work ethic to bring that game to every shift, and when he’s locked in, Martin has some of the most dominating performances this class has to offer. The skill level is quite good too; Martin’s offensive game largely revolves around creating space for his teammates, generally by taking the attention of opposing defenders along the wall before finding a way to connect to a teammate from the slot. If that’s not available, look for Martin to do anything necessary to get the puck on net. He’s got a super strong shot and, when he gets his full weight under it, can easily catch goal tenders by surprise. Even in situations where play falls apart, Martin’s ability to extend possessions by earning second efforts with his anticipation and ability to eat players into the wall has been a massive boon for the Greyhounds offense all season long. This is also applied in the defensive zone, where Martin anticipates read passing plays, causes turnovers, and quickly begins counter-attacks. The floor here is really attractive, and Martin feels immediately NHL translatable as a 3C, playing a checking role. The vision is here.

But I don’t know if I believe there’s much more than that. Martin, for being the classes’ “top power forward,” really doesn’t play that game in the conventional way. He’s not super big; he’s not super fast, but his strong physical play gets him the puck more often than anyone else, allowing him to be able to keep trying like few others can. Without the speed and frame, can Brady Martin be as effective as he currently is at the NHL level? I think it can to a degree, but it will be a limiting factor. In some ways, it already is. Martin struggles to generate much for himself by going to the net or routing to high-danger areas. He tends to glide as he hits the offensive zone, making pushing to those areas a bit of a rarity on a shift-to-shift basis. For a player that’s supposed to be so much like the reigning Conn Smythe winner, that’s not an issue Bennett had. He always had that speed and ability to find the middle as well as the skill to play within those dirty areas. I don’t think Martin has it to the same degree, but shades of it are there, and it will be something to build on. At the very least, I really want to see his ability to generate speed improve so that he can be that dynamic force that he’s gassed up to be.

So yeah, I don’t think Martin is one of the highest-ranked players for me in this class, but I do get the appeal. Honestly, he’s gone before I’d take him anyway, and I believe a team may look back on that pick wondering if the cost they sunk was worth it. I don’t think there’s an NHL power forward here but rather a really good 3rd line forward that’s confident, can kill plays, and can grind it out. A physical presence on L3 that can play both special teams. That’s a very valuable player. Top 10 worthy? Eh. Maybe? Not for me though.

15) Caleb Desnoyers - F - Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)

Caleb Desnoyers has been a tricky player for me to assess all season. There’s a lot that, on the surface, does immediately translate as a promising NHL player.

Desnoyers is super smart. He gathers vision over the ice super well and is constantly planning his next play. It’s not just the turning gears, but the output reflects strongly too. Even from video, it is easy to praise Desnoyers for making strong decisions as he constantly places teammates in great shooting situations. His willingness to do anything possible to get the puck to the slot is commendable, and he has the physical prowess to make those visions reality. It sees a ton of use, and Desnoyers still has room to fill out. Desnoyers goes through his motions super well, being at his most fluid when he has a complex offensive scenario in front of him. Desnoyers ability to solve these situations in efficient, tactical, and translatable ways is what I believe has led him to his current reputation as one of the best playmakers in this class. It’s backed up by fantastic on-ice results, and unlike a lot of players in this range and going up to the top 5, he’s not leading with his skill. He’s got some flash to him, but Desnoyers’ game is driven by high-end IQ before anything else. Once in the offensive end, there are few players in this class better at making stuff happen, especially off the cycle. This stuff is all translatable and projectable. Desnoyers plays like a 20-year pro, and I think that’s a benefit that makes him a really high-floor option.

However, I feel like Desnoyers’ strengths are overreported, just as his weaknesses are underreported, most of them revolving around projecting his speed to higher levels. He might honestly be one of the slower straight-line skaters I’ve seen this year. It hasn’t affected him greatly in isolation yet; he’s still able to find ways to get involved off the puck, forechecking and backchecking as need arises and playing his gaps tight defensively. But when the whole game takes a faster pace, the cracks really show. Desnoyers ability to play in motion, especially when under pressure, is something I find highly suspect. Desnoyers tends to lose track of the ice around him, focusing on avoiding mistakes rather than playing to his outs. I think it’s an issue that’s gotten glossed over by Desnoyers playing on what is debatably the best line in junior hockey. Julius Sumpf splits the puck-carrying responsibilities and constantly gives Desnoyers an option to pass too with his good feel for soft ice. Juraj Pekarcik plays the muscle, retrieving pucks in the offensive end and kick-starting the cycles that let Desnoyers ’cook. Sure, Desnoyers ’contributes to both of these jobs in his own respective measure, but there’s little debating he’s been very well-insulated, and projecting a full-bodied adoption of their roles is challenging. Following entries, Desnoyers frequently halts his stride as he hits the line, relying on his handling and power to buy him the time necessary for him to move the puck. Desnoyers’ lack of speed will make getting to those races challenging, and even if he does get there, I am not so confident in his competitiveness in those areas or his physical tools to say that he will be winning a ton of those either. As Desnoyers climbs to higher levels, I’d wager he’s not going to be given the attention necessary to coast on that; rather, I expect that he’d be asked to incorporate that style more. So while I don’t doubt Desnoyers’ offensive ability, I do doubt his ability to get the most out of it for the moment. I think that his struggles at the Memorial Cup and his role as a more shutdown option as a member of Team Canada allude to that, but I pose the question: Is that a matter of versatility or adaptation? I lean toward the latter; as Desnoyers climbs the ranks, I expect to see more defensively minded play.

There is a wild card in play with the recent revelation of Desnoyers sustaining injury to both his wrists since November. It does explain a lot: his splitting of the dot with Julius Sumpf, the occasional play where he makes an extra pass instead of taking the given shot, and said shot’s average projection. Maybe there’s a whole other layer to Desnoyers’ game that is being insanely slept on? I’m a little skeptical of that, and I trust that both he and Moncton staff treated his injury with all the severity it merited, but it does leave a bit to the imagination, but it doesn’t really change my projection.

At the end of the day, I think that despite the relative safety of an NHL player in Desnoyers, there’s a wide range of outcomes that can come out of his game. Where do you place him in a lineup? Do you play him at center? What will his role be? Is he more offensively or defensively leaning? Did the skating improve? There’s too much uncertainty for me to bet too highly on it myself, as Desnoyers is lacking tools that I tend to highly value, but I understand the appeal of taking this guy somewhere in the top 10 as a “it won’t get me fired” option.

16) Ben Kindel - F - Calgary Hitmen (WHL)

Kindel entered the season as the player I was most excited to watch for this class. His high-pace, high-intelligence play was immediately captivating and saw plenty of pucks find their way into nets.

Kindel is just all-around an extremely efficient player in the purest sense of the term. He’s constantly moving, reading the ice, and picking his moments to pierce play, following it up with immediate downhill puck movement; and he’s a heck of a downhill player. He’s one of the best pure passers the draft has to offer, and he uses it in all situations at an absurdly high rate for a forward. He’s a deceptive puck carrier that brings notable puck protection and finesse, mixing up defenders with speed and timing, constantly finding ways to move the puck before he runs out of space. In the moments Kindel does find himself battling a defender, he can still power through them with sheer willpower if they don’t plan their attack correctly, using his lower center of gravity to absorb the contact and head to the net or getting a push off to the walls to stall for support. And not to leave it out, Kindel brings a surprisingly accurate shot to the table. It takes a backseat as Kindel does lean pass-first, but he’s not shy enough to pass up a good look. The ability and intelligence to dig into this bag of tricks and pull out whichever one best fits the situation is Kindel’s greatest asset, but it’s his work rate that glues it all together. Kindel is no cherry-picker, constantly looking for ways to put himself in advantageous positions and stay ahead of the play. If I’ve done my job right, Kindel should come off as a shifty, versatile, tenacious player.

But he’s 5’10, and that’s always going to be a mark on his projectability. To me, it’s not the size itself that is the issue, but what the lack of size stops Kindel from being. He may be engaged along the wall, but he’s going to lose a lot of those engagements, and he’s going to get walked over at times. This leaves Kindel with a sour spot in his own mind, an additional layer he plans around by finding ways to settle pucks quickly and move them off the walls as quickly as possible. It serves him fine for now, but is there an NHL role for a player like this? Heck, where do you even play him? Kindel has played both center and on the wing and comes up with deficiencies in both. He may contribute on the back and forecheck, but he doesn’t bring the off-puck physical presence that appeals to NHL teams, nor does he have the skating speed to go end-to-end that being a center demands without issue. Place him on the wing, and Kindel is going to be forced into those engagements he wants to move quickly through. Visualizing what he does is just really tough, and he will probably need some sculpting in the years to come.

Still, he’s made it work so far. And very well at that. This is the guy who was 1 short of a 100 this year after all and (for my money) by far the Hitmen’s best player in the WHL playoffs. There are a ton of reasons to be optimistic, and I can easily see Kindel play a complementary role on a top-6 line someday. Surely a player with this overall engagement this high, that plays with such an insane efficiency, that works this hard turns into something. I, personally, would take the risk, but I can understand if the lack of tools is enough to make some a bit more hesitant. Idk. I just like him.

17) Radim Mrtka - RD - Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

In a strange twist of fate, this spot for Mrtka is right in line with where I first ranked him last July. The more things change, the more they stay the same. A tenet that, again oddly, is quite fitting to how I view Radim Mrtka’s season. I came into the year believing Mrtka to be a two-way, middle-pair defenseman, and despite the changes in scenery, role, and community perception, I feel Mrtka is still that player.

The strengths are the same as they ever were. Mrtka is massive and moves remarkably well while being constantly engaged in all three zones. Defensively, Mrtka is a leader, organizing his teammates and coverage while playing a disruptive game. He gets the most out of his long reach breaking up plays and stick checking carriers that don’t respect the space he takes. His primary value comes from his defensive transitions; Mrtka’s ability to find exit passes is one of the more refined the draft has to offer. In the neutral zone, Mrtka is again getting the most out of his reach. Challenging breakouts and moving forward on the rush while keeping his stick active to intercept passes. Even when beaten, Mrtka’s mobility tends to earn him some second efforts, ensuring he’s never totally out of a play. The offensive value is a bonus and often a result of Mrtka’s confidence. He’s not shy to pinch at the line to keep offensive possessions active, nor is he afraid to jump in on the rush when given the opportunity. Still, for the level he’s at, Mrtka plays the part of a solid defensive QB to a tee. He’s well-rounded with sneaky good skill and a profile coaches love. That’s a lot of appeal.

Still, I find myself unconvinced about the “boom” in Mrtka’s game. A large part of this comes from how one-dimensional he is. If you haven’t noticed already, I made a ton of references to Mrtka using his stick and his reach to make plays. That’s sort of masking the idea that, for a near 6’6, 200+ LB defender, Mrtka really isn’t as physical as I would want him to be on most given nights. I was initially confident that this would be something that would easily follow suit as he adapted to play in Seattle, but it never really came. As a result, Mrtka’s developed a “sweet spot” in his defending, allowing play to come to him, something that makes him an easy player to read. The high-skill forwards stay out of his effective range, slowing down and letting Mrtka’s own momentum take him out of plays, or they outwait him, letting him make his attempt before getting the puck underneath him and moving the puck from there. The high-energy forwards just close the gap immediately, leaving Mrtka flat-footed and forcing him to reach around players in an attempt to hit the puck. It’s particularly noticeable in net front scenarios where, in tight spaces, Mrtka fails to engage with his feet. Maybe Mrtka wouldn’t be punished for it in a slower environment, but faster speeds demand tighter plays and more decisive decision-making. That lack of decisiveness also hurts Mrtka in where he excels, making exit passes. Against the heavy forechecking teams in the WHL like Everett, Mrtka struggled to find the time necessary for him to get through his progressions and make plays. He’s not so mobile as to avoid this pressure, and it leads to moments where Mrtka forces plays.

I still like what Mrtka brings to the table. The size, reach, and transition value are all definite pluses and should lend well to an NHL role. I just struggle to see what that is at the moment. He’s not so physical that he fits in the mold of most big, heavy players in the NHL, nor is he so offensively gifted that he’s projectable as a puck-moving option. Maybe he finds a happy middle as a 2nd/3rd pair defender that brings value on the PK, but I still feel like there’s a ways to go before Mrtka’s able to play with that amount of responsibility. There’s a real shot the NHL game is just too fast for him and he’s more of a bottom-pair/depth option. He’s going to need some time, but for a team with a plan, there should be plenty to work with here. Maybe I am being too harsh; I still think Mrtka is one of the best defensemen this class has to offer and am confident in that, but his wide range of possible outcomes creates some uncertainty for me.

18) Braeden Cootes - F - Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

Few players in this class feel as NHL-projectable as Braeden Cootes. He’s a Swiss Army knife with a hot-rod motor, bringing high energy to what feels like a bottomless well of stamina.

Cootes’ value largely comes away from the puck, getting the most out of his energy by being one of the most obnoxious forecheckers the draft has to offer, annoying defenders with his speed and intensity. Cootes layers this with really strong physical habits, particularly when he gets deep in the offensive end. Behind an opposing team’s net is Cootes’ comfort zone, where he’s one of the flat-out best puck-battlers in the CHL. Cootes ’constantly battles to get on the inside of defenders, shielding the puck away from them with his back as he looks to create plays going low-to-high and establish or restart cycles. Defenders rarely find relief in playing the puck back, as Cootes’ speed regularly sees him winning those races and re-acquiring possessions all the same. I adore the commitment Cootes ’has to his style, as he’s constantly looking for ways to apply himself in that fashion. It’s a style that is very NHL-projectable, and on this alone, I can easily see Cootes ’land an energy role in a middle six.

This strength is thematic of Cootes’ play as a whole and sees a ton of usage defensively as well. That speed and anticipation work well in the neutral zone, creating turnovers and counterattacks as Cootes reads opponents’ plays. The peskiness he applies on the forecheck applies to his coverage game as well, where Cootes’ well-timed stick-checking, wall-play, and again, the ability to get down low at the crease and get his hands dirty. On a Seattle team that (according to InStat) saw some of the most time in the defensive zone across the WHL, Cootes’ ability to not only create the turn of possession but also to kickstart defensive transitions was indispensable.

If there’s an area for growth, I would hope to see more offensive creation out of Cootes’ going forward. Cootes, as defined by his transition play, proved to be a highly efficient puck carrier over the season. Bringing strong handling and layering it with a ton of speed, Cootes was constantly able to get advantages and put himself into good situations, but it’s what comes after that I find a bit lacking. Sure, he lacked offensive support at times this season, but even when it was present, Cootes ’didn’t really generate a ton of high-danger chances, and he struggled to create them himself. I think he just lacks that extra layer of creativity, of self-confidence, of dare, that separates really high-end offensive players from the guys that are good and smart.

That does feel like a bit of a nitpick, as I don’t think that’s what lands Braeden Cootes an NHL paycheck anyway. The value he brings is in his brain, his feet, and his hands while having the guys and effort to use them in whatever fashion the situation demands. Sure, some extra size and physical development to facilitate that would go a long way, but Cootes is well on his way to what I believe is a strong defensive middle-six NHL role that brings value on the PK. If he does add some of that flash, I’d probably have Cootes in my top 10 at this point. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out as one of the best players in this class anyway. There are just a few players whose upside I find a bit more tantalizing.

19) Justin Carbonneau - RW - Blainsville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)

If the NHL draft were decided by raw talent, Carbonneau would be a consensus top-10 pick. He’s got one of the best highlight reels in the class and has shown real game-dominating ability on the puck. His whole game is getting the puck and blowing defenses up with speed and skill. Carbonneau has got all the physical tools to bring that to higher levels. He’s remarkably fast and generates a ton of force when skating with the puck and incorporates a ton of deceptive handling at that high speed. The result is generally highlight-reel worthy and ends with Carbonneau unleashing his shot. Another core strength: Carbonneau’s shot flies off his stick with remarkable accuracy, catching me by surprise on quite a handful of occasions. The combo of skills and tools, attached to a strong 6’1, 190 lb. frame, makes Carbonneau the purest skate-and-shoot prospect the draft has. His ability to get himself in situations where he can play that game is also commendable. Carbonneau is regularly involved on the forecheck and off the wall and uses strong anticipation to jump to flip possessions in the blink of an eye. This is the crux of Carbonneau’s upside. If he is to be an NHLer, it will be because he’s able to play this game at that high level, and he’s certainly got all the skill and talent to realize it.

That said, it’s everything outside of that that makes Carbonneau so hard to project for me. Put plainly, I really don’t know if Carbonneau has the in-game maturity necessary to become a pro. The part I hid when first talking about Carbonneau’s strengths is that he gets a TON of opportunities and is the core of the Armada team. Mateo Nobert’s entire job some nights is to “get Carbonneau the puck.” With that many tries, there’s a ton of waste. Carbonneau will constantly skate into 3 defenders and try to take it all on himself. He never pre-scans and is super straight-lined, totally relying on his pure skill to get him where he wants to go. That lack of vision and pre-scanning hurts his ability to complete passes at 5v5. Carbonneau just doesn’t see the ice outside of what is in front of him because he doesn’t look.

I’d say it’s enough to survive at the QMJHL level, seeing as this is the leading Q scorer I am talking about, but honestly, I still don’t find his game mind-bogglingly effective. Against stronger competition and especially in the playoff series vs. Sherbrooke, Carbonneau heavily struggled when team defenses knew to focus on him. This led to Carbonneau cheating for offense, exiting the defensive zone way too early in an attempt to get open and (this is the big reason I am low on Carbonneau) frustration. Carbonneau, when frustrated, can be a really big pouter, and he does NOT hide it. He sags his shoulders after every whistle, throws his head back at every inconvenience, and argues with the refs in situations that egregiously have him in the wrong. It gets to his play, Carbonneau’s bad habits multiply; he’s turning the puck over more, he’s cheating more, he’s not getting up in the forecheck or backcheck, and he’s not going where the ice is available but constantly tries to force plays even when it’s clearly not an option. And it affects his team; the Armada relied on Carbonneau to be their catalyst this season, and when he's off his game, so did the team follow suit. The game suddenly becomes about re-igniting Carbonneau, untilting him, and putting him in situations to succeed rather than team success as a whole. Carbonneau just feels like a player whose success is conditional on being able to do whatever he wants and whatever he wants working.

I still believe in Carbonneau the hockey player; he’s so damn skilled and is one of the few real lamplighters this draft has to offer, but he’s undoubtedly a junior player in his current state and will need to evolve if he wants to realize that top-6 upside he carries. Even if it doesn’t come in the package, here it might be strong enough to net Carbonneau a role as a top-9 skill option. Despite the definite boom/bust label, there’s a ton Carbonneau can do to fix that, adding a B-game, bringing some defensive value, and getting more involved along the walls, but if he will is to be determined.

20) Cole Reschny - C - Victoria Royals (WHL)

God, I love Cole Reschny. Is there a hockey colloquialism equivalent to “hoopers hoop”? Puckers puck? Sounds dirty. If there was one, Reschny would probably be the poster body of the idea in this class, bringing high-end intelligence and skill to a high-end work rate. Nothing he gets comes easy, and nothing he earns goes to waste.

Looking back at where Reschny started the year, I am still surprised at how far he’s come. At the Hlinka, I found him to be a very hot/cold player who could scorch players with his hands and vision when cooking but really struggled to do so when robbed of time and space. Against tougher competition, Reschny tended to shrink into the background as he lacked the skating ability to keep pace and the physical profile to get into spots where he had to compete. Reschny still showcased plenty of what he’s capable of and showcased that intelligence of his on numerous occasions, but he was rather easily suppressible, a really tough barrier for undersized players to climb over when they lack the footwork to stay in plays. This was my read on Reschny for most of the year. I loved the player for all he brought to the ice; his body language was a consistent green flag, his engagement never wavered, he just seemed geared the right way; but I was concerned the deficiencies in his projectability might just be too big of a barrier for him to overcome.

Even with all that praise, I did not expect Cole Reschny to take off in the WHL playoffs like he did, nor did I expect him to be (in my opinion) Canada’s best forward at the U18s. The biggest downside to the wide net I cast with my scouting method is that it’s tough to see how players improve over the course of the season. But on revisiting him, the signs were definitely there. Reschny learned to vary his approaches, using his lower center of gravity to get under players and using his strong frame to drive the net and protect the puck. He became highly adaptable, jarring opponents with decisive, split-second decision-making that inevitably bolstered his strong playmaking skills too. His shot has gotten much more accurate. Very importantly, Reschny also became a much better off-puck player, bringing that high-end work rate to the defensive zone and penalty kill, applying early contact and heavy pressure to force opponents into bad decisions. The physical game saw massive improvements too, with Reschny rolling off hits and just plainly outworking his competition to a ridiculous degree. I don’t think this is any more evident than in his play in the offensive corners. Reschny constantly won battles or got the inside of defenders chasing the puck and immediately zipped passes to teammates, going low-high to kickstart cycles or cross-ice to set up shooting opportunities.

Anyways, I think the point is made. I love this player, and even though the skating is a handicap that will likely keep him from being the most dynamic option at the NHL level, I would be deeply saddened if he doesn’t carve out a role for himself anyway. There is precedent for this type of player to find success with this style (thinking of Pius Suter and J-G Pageau), and I don’t see a reason why Reschny can’t follow that line. Reschny may be a bit more limited at the pro level, but there’s a role out there for him yet. If Reschny does add that layer of speed, though? Hoho, I am going to hate myself for ranking him this low.

21) Shane Vansaghi - RW - Michigan State (NCAA)

Vanasghi has undergone a serious evolution this year. He’s always been the marquee “power-forward” of this class, but he adapted better to the NCAA than one can imagine. It’s not just bone-crushing hits (although there were plenty); it’s the detail Vansaghi added that made sure his physicality was as efficient as possible. He gets under people, boxes them out with flawless efficiency, pushes through their second efforts, and drags them along for the ride. Pray you never meet Vansaghi along the boards, or getting stripped in embarrassing fashion will be the least of your concerns.

Once Vansaghi does get the puck, the skill on display is nothing to scoff at either. He’s got remarkably good hands, which served him well in protecting the puck but also with some nifty deking as well. Vansaghi contributed meaningfully in the offensive zone too, running set plays and give-and-goes before heading to his office at net front. Even when under pressure, Vansaghi had no issue executing plays, showcasing some really strong resilience as well as a good map of the ice, both skills that should suit him very well at the NHL level. Vansaghi’s game may be simple, but there’s a reason coaches love players like this. They work at all levels, and they’re highly effective too.

There’s one minor asterisk to Vansaghi’s 'flawless' NHL projectability: his skating. Vansaghi does have a good motor and is able to barrel around the ice well enough for the current level, but he’s still notably slower than his peers and will need to get some skill points across the board. If Vansaghi adds considerable agility and speed to add to his current game, the NHL is certain. As it is, it remains a threat to his NHL projectability, not quite make-or-break but enough to keep his stock in check, especially if you were hoping for more development in Vansaghi’s early birthday. Even if he remains a below-average NHL skater, I have a hard time seeing Vansaghi not filling in an NHL bottom six someday. The skating isn’t so bad to gate him from the NHL…. right?

22) Jackson Smith - LD - Tri-City Americans (WHL)

I don’t think anyone is more surprised at Smith’s spot on my list than I am. I was never on the ship with him entirely, but I was certainly adjacent to it, and I was confident that in a year where high-end defensemen are in short supply, Smith would establish himself as the firm #2 option.

Smith brought the combination of profile and talent that gave the idea a firm shot. I was especially impressed with him earlier in the year, where the “combination of size, footwork, and offensive flair” kept my eyes glued to him at the Hlinka. Smith’s contributions in transition were particularly remarkable. He constantly stretched the ice and showed plenty of confidence carrying the puck while demonstrating strong playmaking ideas, stretching the ice, and showcasing an ability to play at speed with quick, one-touch passes and strong adaptability in motion. His shot often managed to find ways to trickle through the middle of ice and carried a heavy weight to it. There was a solid defensive side to Smith as well. His wide reach and strong mobility made him a good rush defender, and he had the strength and small-area mobility to contribute at the net-front and below the dots. The downside to this was that it never really gelled together into a cohesive package, something that I was sure would solve itself as the season wore on.

Instead, by midterms, I came out with a more hesitant outlook on Smith. I chalked it up to a poor start to the campaign and Tri-City not being the strongest team in the WHL at the time, but in hindsight the warning signs were definitely there. Instead of an evolution into the dynamic defender I thought he could be, Smith got me really concerned about his hockey sense. His play on the offensive end was fraught with panicked shooting and missed reads. His willingness to play on the puck, while awesome when he confidently puts it all together, could often be a detriment and see Smith take some really questionable options. That said, I still believed in Smith’s tools, even if the applications were hit/miss. Smith’s projectability as a decent two-way defender can be confidently held up as long as he remains defensively solid, and he was fine for the WHL level. The strengths I saw didn’t go away, even if there were some miscues along the way.

At this point my outlook was that Smith was a toolsy player that you can reasonably bank on putting it all together with some time. I headed into the U18s ready to see Smith really take over the tournament from the Canadian blueline. He entered that tournament as the most highly-rated defender and was going to get a ton of support from the strong cast of Canadian forwards. I came out of that tournament sorely disappointed. A lot of the issues that plagued Smith all year peeked their ugly head in again on the biggest stage, and it was not something I could neglect as a “point of improvement” anymore. That bastion of his stock, the defensive ability, really got picked apart in this tournament. His rush defense sorely suffered, and he was constantly getting beaten wide. Smith seemed to grow an aversion to using his stick in those situations, either playing far too aggressively and getting beaten by the competition's speedier forwards or just slowly gliding into them while putting his hip out. His offensive play struggled just as heavily, and he was lucky to exit the tournament with his 5 points. All 4 of his goals came from a combination of luck, point shots in traffic, and a single assist off a defensive zone poke check that led to a mishandled puck by a Norwegian player that Lev Katzin took the length of the ice. Smith’s puck-carrying was at a season low, and he struggled to unlock offensively all tournament long, something that took him off the Canadian power play for most of the tournament.

So where does Smith land now? I honestly don’t know. It’s kind of jarring when a prospect seems to actively get worse as the season goes on. I still believe in Smith’s tools, but a strong reassessment of his upside may be in order, and I think that the offensive game may end up as more of an accessory to a toolsy, defensively leaning two-way defenseman whose value is propped up by his skating. I believe that Smith’s ability to learn and play within systems is going to be what takes him to an NHL role, something that will be very interesting to follow as he joins Penn State. How he hits the ground there will surely be very revealing. In sum, there still may be top-4 upside with Smith, but I don’t think he’s going to be the highly dynamic, potential top-pair defender that was originally envisioned.

Tier 4 - Not a 2nd, Not yet a “1st”.

23) Ryker Lee - RW - Madison Capitals (USHL)

Oh man Ryker Lee. What a player. Outside my top 10, Lee is by far the most naturally talented player in the draft. The hands on this kid… my god. I caught him in Shattuck as a D-1 and thought that for all his fancy tricks his 5’9/5’10 self was never going to make it this high on my list and boy am I glad I am eating dirt on that one. I am still amazed at the season he had. Going from Prep to the USHL is a massive leap for any rookie and usually demands serious adjustments, and Lee was still able to bring so much of what made him such a valuable player to the next level.

Creativity and dexterity define Lee’s game. On the ice, it leads to some of the most disgusting sequences of dekes you may ever see and if Lee is in the mood for generosity some of the most mind-boggling playmaking you can find. Some of the things I’ve seen Lee do, I don’t even understand. Behind the back, curl and drag backhand cross-ice passes with 2 guys on you? Going backhand/forehand 3 times from the circles before burying it in the corner? It’s not just insane to describe, and just as insane to watch. Despite the glaze, Lee’s hands are in service to his lightning quick release of the puck both in his shot and in his passing. Emphasis on the latter, Lee has all kinds of mix-ups in his passing game to keep defenders guessing. Lobs, saucers, one-touch passes, using the walls, feints, the list is bottomless. When Lee is in-motion his small-area game is practically untouchable and has no issue getting the puck wherever he pleases. It’s a skillset that alone jettisons him up amongst the top potential playmakers this class has to offer.

The biggest hit to Lee’s projection comes in the skating department. I am a bit more forgiving to Lee considering his massive growth spurt clearly messed up his stride, something I noticed from my first viewing of him in November. It’s seen notable improvement particularly in Lee’s east-west movement, but will need to take more steps before it’s NHL average. Rather then seeing it as a negative, I think it just goes to show how much potential Lee holds. Despite the evident weakness, Lee’s constantly involved along the walls and on the forecheck. He’s clearly put the work in off the ice too with his combine results landing in the top 10 in 3 categories while also having the best score in the vertical jump.

Rather, I find the bigger concern is the lack of maturity in his game. Currently, Lee is a very junior scorer. He’s inefficient, he’s not engaged defensively and he’s not the most refined physical player. Understandable, considering this is a USHL rookie we are talking about here. Lee’s got a long runway to go, but I don’t think there’s many players, especially in this range, that promise to payoff as well as Lee can. An upside bet? A bit boom/bust? Absolutely. But I like him :)

24) Roger McQueen - F - Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

I can’t be the only one that feels the conversation around McQueen has gone somewhat off the rails, right? The hype, the injury talk, and the wild range of possible developments for him on/off the ice all kind of drown out what McQueen is at the moment for me.

What McQueen is is an exceptionally talented hockey player that has the capability of generating a lot of joy. He covers a nasty amount of ice in a stride and is able to play and skate with high speed, with relatively strong mobility for a player his size. He incorporates east-west movement to a reasonable degree. McQueen’s got great handling ability, which, combined with his speed, is able to net him some space in some really difficult situations. Once McQueen finds the offensive zone, usually as a result of one of the former skills, he can become a serious dual threat. His strong shot is accompanied by a sneaky release, and he shows flashes of really deceptive playmaking. Particularly on the cycle, where McQueen is constantly incorporating feints, drawing attention, and zipping the puck through the openings the second they open up. McQueen can use that 6’5 frame of his too, throwing the body and getting engaged along the walls. There’s a ton of good stuff to work with here, which makes seeing McQueen as a potential top-6 center doable.

But I can’t help but feel like McQueen just hasn’t been that this year. The injury is, of course, something of note (more on that later), but there’s little denying that injury or no, McQueen still has some limitations to address. McQueen’s skating doesn’t take full advantage of his edges, making his attempts to cut to the middle a challenge. There are moments where McQueen just lacks the expected coordination, leading to a good deal too many unforced turnovers at the hands of well-timed stick checks. I also find his playmaking often takes a backseat at even strength, where McQueen tends to favor the use of his shot. This is especially evident in moments immediately following zone entries, where McQueen will often be overzealous trying to press through pressure and drive the net, skating into multiple defenders while doing so.

But these habits can be tweaked and fixed; what really worries me is that McQueen just doesn’t drive good results. In the games I’ve watched this season, Brandon has been heavily outplayed with McQueen on the ice, leaking in chances and shots while struggling to generate anything of their own. While McQueen carries the tools for good transition play, he struggles to play that game reliably. He’s not a significant enough factor in exits, and his entries often end up as turnovers. His playmaking at even strength also leaves a lot to be desired. There are good ideas, but they don’t come out often enough, nor is McQueen’s execution flawless when they do. McQueen constantly gets too much on his passes, making it hard for teammates to receive. McQueen’s physicality is present but feels vainglorious, there for the sake of saying it’s there. His approach to physicality reminds me of Cole Eiserman’s last year, where McQueen would go out and take the hit when it was given to him but wouldn’t actually be proactive and get engaged physically when his team needed him to. The one constant that seems to have followed McQueen through all levels is that he’s great at pubstomping weaker teams while struggling against competition that demands more. The scoreboard would tend to agree; of McQueen’s 20 points this season, 13 come against the 2 worst-performing teams in the WHL. Something I am not entirely sure is a coincidence, considering those games also happen to account for just under half of his total regular season games. Production isn’t anything sure, but I do feel it speaks to McQueen’s not having solved the WHL game yet and his developmental road being still long. This isn’t a player that can jump into the NCAA tomorrow.

The role where I found McQueen most effective this season was as a rush attacker. His stride still covers an insane amount of distance, and his long reach made him an easy passing target for teammates looking to move cross-crease. McQueen generally also slotted in nicely as a complimentary forward, taking advantage of the loose pucks his teammates would create. He was not shy to create them himself either, being a notably good back and forechecker. The picture painted is one of a pretty raw, high-potential forward, and that’s my current read on McQueen. If it weren’t for the injury and his play took the expected steps throughout the season, this is a player that I probably could’ve lived with taking in my top 10 somewhere.

To speak of McQueen without speaking of the risk he imposes would be a disservice. I’m not usually one to place too much worry in a player’s injury history, but McQueen’s case is different. His chronic ailment is an open secret, but it’s definitely chronic, so that “feeling 100%” tweet I saw of him at the combine means little. He can always re-injure himself just as easily as he healed from his bout in the WHL playoffs. That’s a fear that will constantly be in place during his development, and it begs the question: Having missed so much hockey already, can McQueen confidently develop into the player his potential hints at? There’s a ton of work for McQueen to cover, and the time he has to put in the work will always be up in the air. Even if he does manage to break into the NHL, can he survive an 82-game NHL season? All questions that can only be answered with McQueen playing, something that’s been and is going to continue to be a challenge.

With the long roadmap, the lack of results, the questions about health, and the high pick he is likely to demand, I can easily see McQueen drop alarmingly on draft day. While this spot seems harsh, I am honestly giving him the benefit of the doubt and virtuously admitting that there aren’t enough players I can justify drafting him over. I definitely considered him landing in my 2nd at more than one junction this year. Hopefully, McQueen’s able to create a healthy career for himself and reach his heights. He’s a really fun player, and I hope he makes it.

25) Vaclav Nestrasil - RW - Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)

Nestrasil’s a player that doesn’t really put wind in my sails, but I feel he’s a player that’s done his part to warrant top-round consideration.

I was really unimpressed with him at the start of the year, where there seemed to be a ton of variance between his shift-to-shift play. He alternated between slow, disengaged, and all-around uneventful to zooming, physical, and creative in the drop of a hat. As the season wore on, the positive side of that swing came out more and more until it was the dominating personality, and he ultimately won me over.

The tools here probably couldn’t be any better. He’s 6’5 with room to fill, devastatingly fast with a long reach. Every bit of that sees its full possible usage, particularly when Nestrasil is away from the puck. He blasts down the wings to chase pucks and create openings. He’s highly engaged on the forecheck and backcheck, practically throwing himself into contact when presented the opportunity. I’m a huge fan of Nestrasil’s route running. He just has a good nose for soft-ice and constantly places himself in situations where he can alleviate pressure. Whether the situation calls for a deep target, a 3rd defender, or a man down low, Nestrasil is constantly anticipating offensive situations and planning his paths accordingly. Once he’s in those spots, Nestrasil has the skill to punish defenders that let him get there, packing a strong wrist shot and some very nimble playmaking. Emphasis on the latter, Nestrasil’s really good at slipping passes through defenders, often masking the timing of his release to pull the defender with him. The package screams to me to be a really good, energetic 3rd line forward that can probably land on both special teams.

There’s a long way for Nestrasil to get there though. I think skating improvements will need to happen to correct some of the float in his step. With his speed and some better edgework, there’s grounds to get really excited for what Nestrasil’s puck-carrying can provide. I would also like to see some more general urgency in his offensive game. Nestrasil’s great at using and measuring his speed to get to the offensive end but notably goes down a gear once he gets there. I did compliment Nestrasil’s ability to assist teammates in alleviating pressure, but he doesn’t really give himself the same courtesy. Sometimes, Nestrasil is impatient and gets out of position for no reason or forces a low-% play. Sometimes, he’s too patient, taking too long to move the puck or being quick to disengage after making a drive to the net.

There’s some definite rawness here, and honestly, it’s not too surprising considering Nestrasil missed most of his age 15 and 16 seasons. I am opting to be a bit more forgiving considering that and the trajectory is already positive enough as is. I just am unsure of what Nestrasil’s ultimate ceiling looks like, but even if my current projection as a high-energy big third-line winger is correct, that’s definitely worth a first this year.

26) Blake Fiddler - RD - Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)

Thanks to his profile, there will always be time for Blake Fiddler. The amount of 6’4, 200+ LB RD is a small pool that shrinks further when you account for players that can skate as well as he does.

It would be a disservice to say that’s where the positives end. I find that a lot of Fiddler’s value comes from his ability to keep the puck moving in positive directions. He’s a capable player in transition, great at finding exits and making the ever-valuable first pass. Brings strong 4-way mobility to defending the rush and keeping himself in plays when in the neutral zone. Fiddler’s play from the mid-line in is what is holding him up at this point. I do have an appreciation for his willingness to get aggressive at the line to keep possessions alive and the confidence to get low in the offensive end. Fiddler looks at his best in these brief counterattack situations when the opponents are just about to clear their zone, aggressively using his big body or long reach to deny breakouts and simultaneously creating odd-man advantages or re-establishing possession. With these strengths, it’s easy to see why Fiddler has earned that “two-way” reputation.

I’m just unconvinced he’s done enough to merit that. Fiddler’s very raw, and it’s not any more evident than in his play away from the puck. He’s severely lacking in the habits he needs to take advantage of that massive frame of his. Whether in motion or along the wall, Fiddler’s contact rarely comes with planted feet, making his contact easy to absorb. I praised Fiddler’s ability to defend the rush earlier, but a lot of that comes from Fiddler just being able to skate into people, eliminate their sticks, and push the puck off of them. A massively important skill set to have, but without the physical pressure to really put these forwards on their heels, Fiddler opens himself up to being flatly beaten. This extends to defensive zone play, where Fiddler relies on his reach and anticipation to be disruptive. Good stuff, but the role he’s sort of cast for is as a net-front defender. Fiddler gets outmuscled and outworked constantly.

The picture that I am trying to paint here is that Fiddler is constantly playing smaller than his size. I imagine he will need to undergo a transformation not too dissimilar from the likes of David Savard or Cody Ceci. Offensively leaning players in junior needed to become defensively leaning to survive in the NHL. But to get to that level, there’s still some development that needs to come. I want to see improvements to his straight-line skating, I want to see better decisions on when he pinches, and I want to see him hit his passes with increased accuracy.

As it stands, Fiddler is still a little too raw to earn top 20 cred from me, but I see the world where he gets there. Honestly, most of what he is now doesn’t even matter. An NHL team is probably going to bash his head into becoming a stay-at-home option until he conforms, and the profile is going to give him the runway he needs to get there. Bloodlines, folks.

27) Michal Svrcek - LW - Brynas IF (J20 Nationell / SHL, Sweden)

In a draft full of players that are willing to ease up and slow down with the puck, Michal Svrcek has been a breath of fresh air.

The first and second things you notice in Svrcek’s game are his speed. He gets fast, and then he gets faster. Dare I say it’s NHL ready as is? If it’s not, it’s pretty damn close. Anyways, it’s not just the speed, but what Svrcek uses it for that makes him such an appealing prospect. Even at the SHL level, he pushes the pace of play to an unhealthy level, placing grown defenders on their heels, unrelenting in his pressure. Svrcek’s got the truculence to absorb the contact he takes and just as quickly dart it for quick passes. The speed at which Svrcek needs to absorb information just to execute these plays is highly impressive. Off the puck, Svrcek looks like he just took off the weight, like he’s Rock Lee. You have to feel for puck carriers that have Svrcek on their heels, as he just harasses them nonstop, regardless of where they land. Forechecking, backchecking, and defensive transitions—rest assured Svrcek will find you, and he will get the puck off your stick. All of this should translate to a really valuable, suffocating 5v5 player.

That said, I do run into trouble trying to project Svrcek to the NHL game. Being relatively small, some physical development will be needed if he’s going to maintain this mosquito playstyle. I also really want to see his contributions on the puck improve. Svrcek’s playmaking is a definite asset, but I want to see it more actively outside the rush. His shot also can really use some work, as he fails to get a lot of power on it in motion as it is.

How Svrcek’s skill translates to the NA game and how he handles the physicality as an undersized forward is what I think will truly measure his NHL role. But regardless of if he does become a strong point producer, there’s bound to be some top-9 value for a player this fast that can produce turnovers this frequently. I can’t help but see shades of Andrew Cogliano in his game, at least, the one I grew up with that looked like a star on the Edmonton Oilers. I don’t think any NHL team would be complaining about snagging a player even remotely similar to that in the first round this year.

28) Cole McKinney - C - U18 USNTDP

Since about Christmas, I was confident that Cole McKinney was the highlight of this NTDP team. Outside of Brady Martin, I don’t think there’s an easier player to project as a 3rd line center this year.

High intelligence and high motor are the name of McKinney’s game here, and he brings it in spades. There’s practically no area of the game he’s unwilling to get involved in and no spot where he looks out of place. He’s wired perfectly, having the hockey sense to naturally gravitate to high-pressure areas and diffuse them with ease. To me, that’s a skill quintessential to being a bottom-six center and alone would make me confident in McKinney’s floor. I went into every viewing of McKinney knowing exactly what I was going to get and what I was going to see. Yet, I am still surprised at the number of hats McKinney wears to fit that role in any given situation. He’s a very efficient transition player that brings strong puck protection as a carrier and downhill attacker, regularly driving up the middle. Off the puck, McKinney brings good pass-receiving skills and plans his routes thoughtfully. This extends to the other side of possession too, as McKinney brings value to the neutral and defensive zones with his strong anticipation and stick-checking, diffusing plays and kickstarting counterattacks. On the offensive end, he’s a playmaker by nature. McKinney’s quick passing and wall play are the most regular contributors to his value, but he’s got a really hard shot that, to my chagrin, he never uses. Even after all that, I feel like I’m scratching the surface of the amount of “good stuff” I’ve seen McKinney do in any given night. None of it is flashy, but it is consistently effective, something I find in short supply this year.

Even then, I think McKinney’s lack of offensive potential has been a bit overblown. He’s been THE playdriver for the NTDP all season long. The only forward to have reached above point-a-game status and also, per me, the catalyst for Jack Murtagh to have earned his reputation as a safe prospect. As the season grew older, McKinney was definitely getting more creative with his approaches. He’s incorporating more slip passes, more quick stops/starts, and more creative cross-crease options. Sure, they weren’t all too successful, but the effort was there. Even if I do think that McKinney’s passing game is best suited to that complimentary style he currently plays with, the effort remains commendable and displays that there is room for growth here. He’s willing to try at the very least. If it doesn’t come, then I still believe in McKinney’s shot. It packs a wallop, and his ability to remain accurate in motion is something I’ve noticed regularly.

Despite this blurb coming out highly glazed, I do think McKinney’s ceiling is fairly limited. He doesn’t showcase the deception, creativity, or the raw ability often enough to lead a lineup at the NHL level. In all likelihood, there’s a bottom-six center here that provides PK upside while averaging 12-25-37 a year. How effective McKinney is in that role is left to be determined, but kids that work this hard tend to find a way. I think McKinney deserves serious props for being able to play this style of game in what was by no means an easy season for the NTDP. In a year where it feels like the entire roster was waiting for someone to spearhead them, McKinney managed to do so by sticking to his game and leading by example. Smart, hardworking, detailed, and room to grow? Yeah, that’s the first round upside.

29) Cameron Reid - LD - Kitchener Rangers (OHL)

Cam Reid is another in a long line of smooth-skating, puck-moving defenders that dominate the top of this class. While smaller than his peers, he more than makes up for it with his remarkable skating ability, full of the fluidity, swiftness, and mobility that you usually find in NHL offensive defensemen. Given the time and space, nothing can stop Reid from getting where he needs to go. His naturally eye-catching game as well as his hockey IQ made him a lottery pick for me at midterms. As the season wore on, though, I felt like the trick got old, and my concerns began to outweigh the positives.

I still think that Reid is bringing a lot to the table. His high hockey IQ is regularly on display. Reid picks his battles carefully, and once he commits, he brings the patience and timing of a seasoned pro. A Cameron Reid turnover was a rare sight in my viewings. He brings a ton of confidence too, willing to drive the wing and go to open space, get down low, and orchestrate play based on what his opponents were giving him. The more common, shift-to-shift version of Reid does lean more as a distributor, but there’s definitely a ton of potential to work with.

The strong play extends to the defensive end too. Reid is opportunistic, something that is again fueled by his high intelligence. He constantly gets sticks on pucks at perfect moments and can show some good aggression. That said, I do feel like this is a big area for growth in Reid’s game. He largely relies on play to come to him and tends to rely on playing preventative defense in the neutral zone to not get hemmed in. Even then, I do want to see Reid close his gaps better. The lack of physicality is definitely noteworthy. Something I noticed throughout Reid’s season was how hard it was for him to handle himself against the physical forwards the OHL threw at him. This was particularly noticeable in the playoffs, where Reid struggled to play between the big bodies on London and Windsor.

While projecting Reid isn’t any different than a handful of other smaller, highly mobile offensive defensemen in recent history, I struggle to see Reid as that type of player. He’s much more two-way leaning, and I think he will need to get a bit more daring in the offensive game to play that role at the NHL level. I think back to players with similar profiles like Jamie Drysdale, and I can’t help but feel that if those players struggled, Reid is likely to as well. I still think there’s a shot of a top-4 defenseman here in the same vein as a Matt Grzelcyk or Samuel Girard, but there’s a decent chance that Reid tops out as an elite AHL option. Like all small defenders, if the offense isn’t explosive enough to win you trophies, play in the defensive end will be what makes or breaks.

30) Malcolm Spence - LW - Erie Otters (OHL)

Having Malcolm Spence in this spot brings me no pleasure. I love the person, and I think he’s a desperate injection of fun and light-heartedness that the NHL desperately needs. I came into the season with the expectation that this was going to be the “fine” player that you want your team to pick in the teens. This year’s Michael Bransegg-Nygard. The report on Spence coming into the year was quite similar. A competitive, physical, finishing-focused winger that played with a high motor. Not the most explosive or entertaining forward, but definitely solid.

Early returns seemed to follow that idea through. Spence was a bit more offensively-leaning than other players of his archetype, focused on finding ways to get his shot off. The other usual trademarks were there: decent skating that usually translated into strong puck-carrying, good wall play, and a bit of sandpaper to his shift-to-shift play. I never saw Spence as the stud that I know some others felt he was, but I had little issue projecting him to a decent complimentary middle-six role. That’s fine, and for my pretty static ranking of him in the 16/17 slot that held most of the year, I think it was perfectly appropriate.

Now. I didn’t know this then, but I definitely felt it enough to leave it in my notes. “A bit selfish… a bit careless… slow on takeoffs… easily herded.” I dismissed it at the time as general nitpicking, and there were certainly games where Spence did dissuade my concerns (particularly in games that had Matthew Schaefer in an Otters jersey). But as time passed, I steadily grew casually disillusioned with my own perception of the player. Yet, even at my midterms, I didn’t drop him for the sake of still believing in that reliability. That despite my initial excitement having evaporated, the “hard-working and physically reliable” Malcolm Spence will still keep his floor high enough to work in a system of some kind. Sure, he may get picked earlier than he should, but that’s ultimately fine. There’s still a lot of good here.

In preparing this article, I went to go watch Spence’s games for the OHL playoffs, and whatever was left of Malcolm Spence, “the safe one,” was totally shattered. Poor performance aside, he just looked like an entirely different player. Constantly disengaged, especially away from the puck, where he regularly cheated for offense. Not physically imposing at all, with a motor that seemed to only rev up when he got the opportunity to get the puck on his stick. There were a ton of moments during these games where Spence seemed totally checked out, just unwilling to put in the extra mile to turn a play, to chase a puck, or to engage in a battle. I can understand why some people would be more forgiving of his play here. Erie was never a heavyweight contender this year, and Michigan was locked up for Spence regardless; there wasn’t much to play for. But remember what Spence is being advertised as. The competitor, the hard worker, the leader? I didn’t see that player here. I saw yet another low-pace OHL scoring forward, and those are a dime a dozen.

Now I feel like I have to re-contextualize the whole conversation around Spence. He was surely labeled the way he was for a reason, but from my reading, something has changed. What triggered it is anyone’s guess. Was it the loss of Matthew Schaefer? Was it the Otters underperforming expectations? Was the allure of the NCAA calling too early? Regardless, Spence came out looking distracted, checked out. That’s not something he can afford to be if he wants to live up to his reputation. A common critique of Spence this season has been the lack of growth, and I think that’s a good deal more alarming than it may seem. The NCAA will not give him the mercy that being a 200 lb. player in the OHL provides, nor will Michigan hesitate to drop him in the lineup if they feel his play drops. In modern terms, he’s got to lock in. This is going to sound very hockeyman of me, but take a look at how much Spence is talking to media during the combine. Carefree, jovial, relaxed. Usually, this is awesome stuff, but I think it speaks to how comfortable he currently is, and I think that’s a huge red flag. Maybe I am thinking way too deep or am totally off course. Maybe he’s totally aware of his falling short of expectations this season and was able to reset mentally, or was dealing with an injury that heavily altered his game, or is putting it all aside until the draft comes. I don’t know, but I can’t help but feel that if the Spence that we saw this year brings that game to Michigan, he’s in for a rude awakening.

I still like Spence and am hoping he turns it around to silence the red flags in my head and be the guy he was advertised as, and this entire spiel ends up vain and empty, but I need some convincing.

Tier 5 - Grow Wings & Fly

31) Gustav Hillström - C - Byrnas IF (J20 Nationell / SHL, Sweden)

Hillström’s a player I am really surprised hasn’t gotten more attention this year. Especially considering this class is one that’s in desperate need of centermen outside the lottery.

Hillström’s one of the more natural faceoff takers in the class, posting a 60% win rate on the dot across all competitions. He’s a super intelligent off-puck player with a commitment to playing a two-way game. A super strong skater that brings serious transition value as a puck-carrier and chaser, Hillström’s never been one to shy away from working hard down-low. I really love how inside-driven he is and the effort he commits to taking the routes less traveled. His profile checks out, standing at a lanky 6’2 with plenty of room to fill out. Hillström also saw the second most time in the SHL among draft-eligibles. There are some flashes of skill sprinkled in here too. He showed a willingness to feint passes, to use his frame, and to play through contact. This carries over to his goal-scoring habits too; Hillström’s goal-scoring naturally comes from in-tight, and he has a firm understanding of the timing and jam required to get to those spots. Considering he was able to play his game at the SHL level, even if a tad overpowered, Hillström presents some very intriguing upside as a transition-focused bottom-six center.

Admittedly, he’s still a bit of a project at this stage. I really wanted to see some dominant play at the J20 level this year, and while the points came, I don’t think Hillström’s intensity carried over. For further development, I would really like to see him get to the US ASAP, as I feel an NCAA coach would go to town seeing Hillström’s skillset. I also think it’s a great place for him to implement some of the things he’s currently lacking. More east-west movement, an increased willingness to shoot the puck, and most importantly, more defensive zone reps. For Hillström to make the NHL, I think you need to gear him into a shutdown role. He’s not really on that path at the moment, but the potential is clear. It’s not going to be enough to outmuscle guys, but I want to see Hillström really dig deep and use that intensity to constantly get into puck battles, hound loose pucks, backcheck harder, and exercise more caution with the puck. With the right coaching and proper patience, I think there’s a really good shot at a 3rd/4th line forward with PK upside. He’s definitely not going to go this high, but he provides a really strong differential from a lot of the classes coveted centers.

32) Sascha Boumedienne - LD - Boston University (NCAA)

I came into the season really excited to see what Boumedienne can bring to the table after a really exciting glimpse at his style in Youngstown. I was expecting a decrease in output with the jump in play, but the effect was a bit more pronounced than I had originally anticipated. Boumedienne’s game has always been a calm, calculated one, but higher paces have forced him to adapt, and the results have been mixed.

In his D-1 season, I had a lot of confidence in him figuring out his edges and learning to create more offensively. That never really came, and Boumedienne’s offensive game stagnated a bit. The NCAA pace definitely had something to do with that. Boumedienne’s calm nature clashed with the constantly high pressure he was under, and it resulted in quite a few questionable decisions. When breakouts weren’t coming naturally, Boumedienne struggled to problem solve and could be victimized. His overall play in the offensive zone also left me wanting, as he struggled to find lanes to get pucks through with regularity. The common theme here is a sense of rigidity. Boumedienne’s handling leaves a lot to be desired (particularly along the wall), and he doesn’t have the edge-work to buy himself space. Offensively, he’s just very honest and a little too straight-line dependent, and it really hampered his ability to push play himself.

But what we got in return was a surprisingly good shutdown defender. Boumedienne’s best shifts this year were all plays where he correctly read a defensive situation, approached it with aggression, and found a quick way to move the puck immediately after. The details in Boumedienne’s game facilitate this style of play too. He’s always engaged, scanning frequently and choosing his engagements quickly and with considerable accuracy. This is especially noticeable in transition, where Boumedienne’s patience has done him a ton of favors in being able to shut down rushes. While some of those plays are more Boumedienne slowing progress than getting stops, as he adds some weight, there’s plenty of reason to see that tune changing. There’s plenty of value in his defensive zone play too. His strong play-reading ability has often led to good breakups, which Boumedienne quickly turns into counterattacks.

So yeah, Boumedienne is a completely different player than what I wanted to see coming into the year, but you have to give props to his ability to adapt to the environment around him. It was the proper step in his development, and even though there’s plenty to pick apart with his play on the puck, I think the U18s served as a helpful reminder that, despite his flaws, Boumedienne is still one of the best defensemen among his peers. But as environments change, what Boumedienne brings to the table is the same as it always has been. He defends the rush super well; he’s a composed breakout specialist, and his great anticipatory habits make him a very useful player in his own end. Can he ride this to an NHL role? I think so. There’s plenty of reason to believe Boumedienne can become a bottom-pair defender with this two-way game alone, but if the edge work does come around, there’s some top-4 value here.

33) Theo Stockselius - F - Djurgårdens IF J20 (J20 Nationell, Sweden)

Stockselius is a player defined by his core strengths and weaknesses. He’s shockingly intelligent and pulls off some insanely high-end plays with the puck on his stick. Outside of the first round, hell, maybe outside the top 10, I don’t think there’s a player that was to consistently hit cross-ice passes like Stockselius. It’s not just the passes, but his ability to create space for himself to get them off with his hands is a true skill in its own right. In tandem, these create one of the most entertaining playmakers in the J20 circuit. BUT, his footspeed is practically non-existent. It’s a glaring flaw that permeatesevery part of Stockselius’s game, particularly in defensive transitions where the simplest of mix-ups can send him reeling as he just doesn’t have the mobility to adjust.

But ultimately, it’s not what Stockselius is doing that is the appeal, it’s what he can be. He’s insanely (no longer) lanky at 6’3, 183 LB 196lb!? and can go has already come a long way with his physical development. His skating for that size, despite lacking in speed, has good footwork to fall back on in tight areas as well as on his crossovers to keep him as a forechecking option. I’ve also noted that something that takes a great influence over the mileage you can get with Stockselius falls on where he plays. The Stockselius that plays center like we’ve seen at the U18s is remarkably more defensively responsible while also being a decent player off the boards who's passing game is more just a vehicle for creating exits. The Stockselius that plays the wing is all about getting the puck north of the center line and using that extra time and space to find those options more consisntetly.

You have to believe that some amalgamation of all these skills pans out into SOMETHING. Stockselius is too efficient, too intelligent, and profiles too well to not take a shot on. Pray the skating comes, and hopefully things just click together. Assuming it does, Stockselius’ stock skyrockets, and he can probably fit anywhere on an NHL top-9. Better yet, what if Stockselius is able to take his current style and bring some newfound speed to it? Well, you have a 6’4, 200-lb winger that can switch up between power forward and playmaker! Even as a complimentary piece, players with this profile make dream top 6 forwards. This is the sort of risk I imagine NHL teams are willing to take, especially after his solid U18 performance. I expect Stockselius to find himself going early on day 2 as one of the more exciting upside bets the class has to offer. Honestly, it took a lot of self-control not to slot him in at 32.

34) William Moore - F - U18 USNTDP

Honestly, I am shocked with myself. If you had told me that William Moore was knocking on the door of my first round back in January, I would’ve thought myself insane. Advertised as the NTDP’s headliner, I came in with high expectations for Moore and was really let down from the jump. He definitely doesn’t meet the hype of the stars of the program’s past, but I found the on-ice product was middling. Most importantly, I found the effort in Moore just really disappointing. He seemed clouded in brainfog, super passive even when in advantageous situations. There were definitely moments of skill and the ability that were promised, but I ultimately concluded that Moore was just too soft and not imposing his will nearly enough to be a high pick.

To an extent, I still feel that way. Moore’s struggles with passivity and confidence are still there, but they have noticeably improved since the season started. If there’s one thing that Moore definitely did add, it was some hard skills. He’s quietly become one of the more consistently impressive players along the wall I’ve viewed this year and builds on those plays remarkably. Mix that in with a player that’s already bringing one of the best skating profiles in the class, and you suddenly have a very interesting option here. There’s now a sense that Moore carries a little bit of everything. There’s some explosive skill, some puck protection, some playmaking, some power forward, and some net front in him. It’s not an easy profile to immediately project, but I think it speaks to Moore's talent that he’s able to do all these things at a relatively high level.

Still, Moore hasn’t shed the allegations. He’s still lacking in aggression and can be a bit too willing to let play come to him. I don’t think Moore is ever going to live up to his pre-draft year hype as a highly likely top 6 center. But I still think that there’s a very useful middle-six complimentary option here. I thought he looked great playing that style for Cullen Potter at the U18s, and he looked comfortable on the wing too. If one were really optimistic, there’s also a case to be made about the decline of the NTDP having an effect. Perhaps a new environment where Moore isn’t looked at to be James Hagens’ replacement does some good for him? Either way, for a class that’s thin on centers and even thinner on high-end ability, Moore presents an interesting buy-low option and a solid differential from the guys that are slated to go at the top of the draft that payout fairly well all the same.

35) Carter Amico - RD - U18 USNTDP

Back when I made the decision to leave Amico off my list for my February list, I was confident that more players were going to leapfrog him for spots in my 2nd round. Clearly, that did not fully materialize, and on revisiting him to get this article done, I quietly resigned that there simply aren’t enough players to justify ranking over Amico, warts and all.

That’s not to say Carter Amico is a bad player or that I am upset that I have to rank him here. He’s a very easy defender to project thanks to his profile, and it should nab him respectable draft consideration in June. He’s a great skater for his 6’5, 230 lb. frame to squash opponents with the best of them and can use his wide range to kill plays in-zone. I’d say he’s still one of the best physical defenders of this class. If you can get him up to NHL speed, there’s no reason to not believe in his immensely high floor.

But the ceiling isn’t all there. Amico had shown signs of some offensive value but was ultimately robbed of the chance to prove them sustainable. But even then, most of those came off of Amico following play to its natural conclusion even if it meant getting really deep in the offensive end. It burned him a couple of times, but the effort displayed is something to build on.

If Amico picks up right where he left off, he can probably make the idea that he escaped the first round seem silly. But time will tell. For now, Amico is a bit of a wild card where you just bet on the profile and size + skating combo to work itself out. Definitely not the worst bet you can make. Rather, maybe one of the better ones?

36) Eddie Genborg - RW - Linkoping HC (SHL, Sweden)

Speedy, violent, and overall annoying, Genborg has made himself known as one of the draft’s premier “hard-skill” players. He may not have the raw ability of many players in this class, but he makes up for it with hard work and being an annoying turd. He commits to his off-puck routes like he’s about to ram a defender into their goalie if they get in his way. There are a few times when, in anticipation of Genborg’s net-crashing tendencies, multiple defenders surround him before he even looks at the puck, creating even more space for his puck-carrying teammate to operate. Where Genborg really makes his money is at the net front. Smaller defenders just have no chance of knocking Genborg off balance and are forced to cut off his lanes, leaving the back post regularly open for him.

Sure. Genborg could use some time working on his skills and protecting the puck and whatnot, but none of this is really his game. Just staying on his current trajectory should net Genborg easy consideration for a bottom-six role at the NHL level. Things can get a lot more interesting if he does add that puck protection and small area handling skills to his repertoire; there’s grounds to believe he can still earn a role as a netfront guy on an NHL powerplay. It’s worked for the likes of Stefan Noesen after all.

Genborg isn’t the most conventionally attractive option, but he’s a necessary one for many an NHL team, especially in a year where one of the most talked about players in the league has been Sam Bennett. Sometimes you just need a guy to do a job, and Genborg looks like he will be able to fit that rather easily. Maybe you luck out and he ends up a 20-goal guy too. Hard to find things to complain about.

37) Alexander Zharovsky - RW - Tolpar UFA (MHL, Russia)

Every year, out of a sea of MHLers, one rises above the rest. One that is so skilled, so confident, and so creative that he cannot be ignored, for he generates too much fun. That’s Zharovsky. He’s an offensive triple-threat, capable of beating defenders with his dekes, passing, and shooting, and he employs them all with remarkable regularity, solving problems on the ice in a manner that feels instinctual. We saw him add some physical edge as the season went on too, and he got noticeably more involved along the walls, something really reassuring considering he does have the frame to play that game. His individualistic playstyle was a constant concern for me all year, but my fears were slightly alleviated watching his stint in the KHL playoffs. It was remarkable how well Zharovsky blended into the Tolpar system and was still able to showcase his high-end vision and processing in the process. A monstrous jump in play that he handled immaculately well. To the point that his cup of coffee ended up becoming a whole brunch date. I don’t think there’s any doubting that if a team is patient enough and can polish him to a shine, then the reward is going to be super-duper high, like, “I wish I took this guy in the top-10” high.

But so is the risk. There are still a ton of junior habits in Zharovsky’s game. His tendency to take shifts (or games) off, some risk management issues, some overpassing, and a reluctance to use his shot. All things that will need to come around. But there’s also this nagging feeling that maybe Zharovsky’s not as good as discussed. The MHL silver division is admittedly low-level Russian hockey, so Zharovsky has been able to get away with a lot more. He’s also not the most naturally pacey player, and that’s killed many a Russian prospect before.

I found myself on the fence for weeks leading up to finalizing my rankings, but 2 truths remained concrete. 1) Zharovsky is one of the most skilled players in this class. 2) Despite the risk, we have already seen a great teaser of what Zharovsky can be. There’s proof he’s capable of working in a system and not losing that high-end ability. In a year like this one, Zharovsky’s just a risk I’m willing to take. Screw it. He’s fun, and I don’t have a job on the line. Sure. Why not?

38) Milton Gästrin - F - MoDo J20 (J20 Nationell, Sweden)

My feelings for Gästrin are conflicted. I started the season off very high on him and believed he’d find a way to stick around in the end of my first, but the issues I had with him never really got addressed as the season went on, and I had to make my peace that Gästrin is just not the player I originally thought he would be.

For a junior player, Gästrin does bring a lot to the table. He’s both fast and strong enough to constantly push play at both ends of the rink. I feel this was seen at the Hlinka, where Gästrin showed himself as an essential glue piece to what was the Swedish top line. He did the battling, he went to the net, and he provided the defensive conscience. The picture I was mentally painting saw Gästrin as a potential middle-six center that both enables and complements offensive wingers. Even when he went back to MoDo and had to take on more himself, Gästrin never strayed away from that projection and continued to play that style of game. Granted, it was to much greater results, and I had no real reason to doubt the opinion I had formed.

After another few visits, I started to get this nagging feeling that the results Gästrin was putting up were not really indicative of what he was capable of. This is by no means the best team that MoDo has ever put out, but I still find the number of times Gästrin called his own number a bit alarming. There was a ton of north-south play, and he struggled to accelerate consistently, often overskating once he did gain that speed and struggling to use his edges to pivot. His shot selection was poor and frequently so, and his decision-making on passes was very hit-or-miss. His physicality was predominantly shown in the offensive end, and his defensive play ultimately relied on just standing still.

I started to grow worried that Gästrin was finding success more as a result of his environment than as a result of his individual ability. Playing the role of an opportunist rather than a truly projectable play-driving option. It’s a small sample, but I feel his 1 SHL game really hammered home a lot of the worries I had. Gästrin’s body doesn’t move as quick as he thinks, and while he is processing play, he is rarely able to actually act on what he sees. The game was plainly too fast for him, and he spent a ton of time just trying to follow play.

On revisiting Gästrin for the U18s and in preparation for this article, I really can’t shake off the feeling that Gästrin really looks and feels like a junior player. He’s a volume generator for sure that can pull off some exciting stuff in moments, but there’s a lot that needs to come for him to meet that initial expectation I held him to. Still, there’s grounds to believe that with improvement to his skating and a rounding out of his game, Gästrin could fit in as a bottom-six forward. I still believe in his intelligence, and I can place my hopes that some of that puck-carrying ability and physicality stay with him and become part of his identity going forward. Efficiency and true two-way engagement are going to be what teams will need to hammer in on Gästrin, and (I'm saying it again) improving his skating is detrimental to fixing that.

39. Kurban Limatov - LD - MHK Dynamo Moskova (MHL, Russia)

Limatov is one of the more feast-or-famine players the draft has to offer.

The feat generally comes from what he’s able to do with his skating. Limatov covers so much ground in a stride, ridiculously mobile, and masks his pathing with strong feints. At his best, he’s an unstoppable puck-carrier using that long stride and reach of his to burst through MHL lines with ease. Once he hits the zone, Limatov constantly fishes for ways to find the slot, either by feeding teammates on off-routes or by just putting the shoulder down and charging himself. He’s got remarkable handling too and can make defenders look totally silly. It’s aggressive, it’s oppressive, and it’s really exciting to watch.

But the famine finds its roots here too. Limatov is aggressive to a fault and will constantly take high-risk plays regardless of circumstance. He finds complex solutions to simple problems. As the season drew on, Limatov tended to push away from this style of play and be a much more detailed, defensive, and physical option. We got to see the defensive IQ that made Limatov a potential play-killer as well as his ability to keep plays to the outside. It just came at the cost of a lot of what made Limatov exciting. His feet were a lot less active in those games, and once he hit the offensive zone, he was way too comfortable just shooting the puck from a standstill. Total tonal whiplash.

So what does Limatov do at higher levels? It’s hard to say. I have seen a lot of what I hope to find in Limatov’s game already, but I’ve never seen it all at once. There are moments where things seem to click, but the package has never truly coalesced. No matter the circumstance, one thing that absolutely needs to see improvement is his decision-making habits. Limatov needs to find a comfy middle between cocaine cowboy and stationary pitching machine; can’t have him throwing backhands from the blue line and can’t have him running into a goalie’s crease while his teammates go for a line change. Add in some scanning habits and a better physical game, and there’s a real chance Limatov can be a top 4 defenseman. Whether he uses that skating of his to be a play-killer or driver is to be determined, but I would bet on the tools. 6’3 defenders that move like he does are not common; even fewer show signs of genuine value at both ends of the rink.

40) Filip Ekberg - LW - Ottawa 67s (OHL)

If you’ve had any contact with me during this draft season, you’ve probably heard me glaze Filip Ekberg at least once. I’ve seen him more than any other prospect this year, being Ottawa-based. He’s my baby boy this year and one of those guys that I just have this irrational faith in. Is it just hometown bias? Maybe. But there was many a night where after the 67s did their usual misanthropic song and dance, I left the arena thinking, “Man… WHY THE FUCK IS FILIP EKBERG PLAYING 5 MINUTES A NIGHT?!”

That sentiment was definitely stronger at the start of the year. Ekberg got sick on arrival in Ottawa and as a result was practically banished to the TD Place stands and 4th line minutes until February. Even in those games where Ekberg got practically no time to settle, he was immediately recognizable. Ekberg’s high-IQ, high-pace, “no shifts off” kind of game is the stuff that gets me tickled pink. For Ekberg, it took for him in his constantly anticipating his engagements with precise timing. He’s a pest for defenders to handle down-low, having a sneaky physical side to him while managing to stay outside defenders’ immediate vision. Once Ekberg does land the puck, he’s in the offensive zone; he finds himself in his wheelhouse. His release is shockingly fast, and he’s got the vision to be a very strong playmaker. Something that was consistent all year on the 67s power play was the tactic of getting Ekberg to read a defender's soul and find a shooter cross-ice for a one-timer. Being able to pull these plays off with Ekberg’s regularity, while having the puck protection skill to constantly buy himself time and space to shake off his reads when necessary, constantly impressed. I alluded to it before, but Ekberg’s not all soft skills. There’s a bit of nasty in there, not shy to go into corners, get in defenders faces, and drive the net when it’s called on.

If he had more size and I was confident that the physical tools wouldn’t limit his NHL upside, I would seriously have considered Ekberg for my first round. Honestly, he probably would’ve made it. There are some NHL qualities here in the finishing ability and play-reading, but I think Ekberg’s going to need help getting to the point where he can consistently act on what he sees. Particularly in his skating, his stride is fluid but floaty and can probably add another level. If he does, I imagine that a lot of the concerns on his own end will naturally clean themselves up, as Ekberg is already plenty engaged in the neutral and defensive zone.

Leading up to the U18s, I’ve heard qualms about Ekberg’s efficiency, which I think are quite valid. His shot selection can be poor, and he’s prone to letting the odd chance or loose puck slip through his fingers. There’s some definite polish to be had. Coming at this from a psychological perspective, I am inclined to be a bit more lenient on Ekberg. The early season saw him constantly doing everything he could to try and earn his keep in the lineup and being constantly set back. First, it was Cameron not trusting the new kid in town, followed by keeping him healthy for the WJAC and then waiting for all the uncertainty around movement at the OHL deadline. Even after all of that, Ekberg still had to fight for his spot in the lineup. It’s surely frustrating, and I believe Ekberg’s response was to try and be so dominant that he couldn’t be sat. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that as the 67s lineup thinned out and they ran out of options, Ekberg took off. That just got compounded at the U18s, where he finally seemed to get the support he needed on the ice. I always knew that Ekberg had this in him, but U18 MVP with near 50% offensive involvement is shooting way above expectations. It gets me thinking that just maybe, all Ekberg needs is a little bit of trust and a safe spot to grow. If he’s not worrying about his spot in the lineup, or his counting stats, or even if he’s going to play, maybe it brings a new composure to his game.

Is this spot too high for him? Yes. Is he a boom/bust player? Probably. Do I give a shit? ABSOLUTELY NOT. I'M BETTING ON THIS KID MONDAY TO SATURDAY AND TWICE ON SUNDAY. FILIP EKBERG TO THE MOOOOOOOOOOOOOON.

41) Arvid Drott - RW - Djurgårdens IF J20 (J20 Nationell, Sweden)

Of the potential “power-forwards” this class has to offer, I find myself drawn to Arvid Drott. Like the others, Drott plays a pretty straight-lined game, and when he finds gaps in coverage, he bolts through the seams to create opportunities. This is a consistent factor of Drott’s transition play, where he will constantly create zone entries by dropping his shoulder and slamming the gas. This isn’t novel; most players with Drott’s skillset can accomplish this with relative ease. What separates him is where he attacks and what he does after his entries. Drott can play the walls, sure, but he’s not shy to challenge the middle of the ice either. There’s even a good amount of east-west after he gets in the zone to create more space for teammates to run their routes. While Drott is a finisher by design, he’s a very efficient shooter and will often opt to find a teammate in situations like this. A really good sign of his craftiness and general hockey IQ, Drott isn’t afraid to let plays develop and feels comfortable acting on what unfolds after. He’s no high-end passer, but it’s a good habit to have; adding specifically this extra element to his game forces defenders to account for more options whenever they see him barreling down the ice.

The trade-off is that Drott isn’t the most athletically refined player yet. His 6’1, 187 lb. frame isn’t bad at all for an August birthday, but he’s just lacking in raw athleticism. For Drott to have tangible NHL upside, adding that extra speed and heft will not only increase his windows of opportunity but also just make him an insanely difficult player to stop. Outside of athletic ability, Drott will also need to add a sense of urgency. He’s not the most refined off-puck player and can be a bit leaky in his own end. He’s a strong forechecker, and his pressures can force costly mistakes and penalties, but the defensive zone play is just a bit too lax.

If these things break right, I can easily see Drott slotting in as a middle-six forward playing a jammy, counterattack-heavy role. But my placement in this draft more so has to do with just a bit of faith in how I think his development will go. Compared to players that need to learn how to use the width of the ice or pass the puck after they get the zone, Drott’s task of “keep doing what you’re doing, just hit the weight room and stop sleeping in your own end” feels like it should be relatively easy points to hit. The ceiling still isn’t super high, but I think the floor is a bit better than some would think.

42. Danill Prokhorov - RW - MHK Dynamo St. Petersburg (MHL, Russia)

You think Arizona regrets taking Danill But at 12? Looking back at that pick, one that I thought was insanity at the time, I do knock myself for not having seen some of the vision in him. Prokhorov isn’t anywhere near as refined as But, but he could bring just as much value.

Prokhorov, like his parallel, comes in at a giant 6’6, 218 lb. frame that leaps off the page. The game fits the profile; the kid is a one-man army. Like something straight out of a squash-and-stretch cartoon, Prokhorov’s average shift usually involves hitting someone’s soul out of their bodies. By the time Prokhorov’s targets make peace with their shortened lifespans, Prokhorov himself has already taken the puck and is heading down-ice. The puck protection game has notably improved as the season went on. He’s Derrick Henry in open ice, powering and maneuvering through contact while using his reach to maintain control. Off the wall, he’s Penei Sewell, practically immovable. God forbid an MHL defense lets Prokhorov get the puck down low; the limited space is practically entirely occupied by his massive frame, and they only hope to contain him at that point. There’s some value in his offense too; he’s got a booming shot, and his straight-line speed is enough to be a decent puck-carrier at this level. The major appeal comes from how effective he is in front of the net. His massive body and natural physical prowess are something most teams have no answer for. There’s some off-puck value as well; Prokhorov’s long reach and powerful strides lend well to his forechecking and backchecking ability.

There are undeniably drawbacks, though. Unlike Danill But Prokhorov’s not as automatic with receiving the puck, and it makes his catch-and-release shooting, whichshould be a core strength, more hit-and-miss than I would like. Despite the strong transition involvement, Prokhorov’s ability to actually break away from pressure isn’t quite there yet. There’s a ton of tunnel vision and a lack of scanning habits that make him very straight-lined. His playmaking game is really mixed; Prokhorov tends to focus on moving the puck quickly more than accurately. Of all the points to improve, this is one I focus on a lot. For all the opportunities Prokhorov gets down low, he opts for wraparounds way too much. He should be a master of going low-to-high by now.

There’s no denying that Prokhorov is exceptionally raw, and there’s a long, long, long…long runway ahead of him. There are multiple ways for him to break into the league, though. Even if the scoring doesn’t come over, the appeal of one of the most violent NHLers in recent history would be quite welcome on a team’s bottom six. He may even warrant some special teams consideration, being a big body and a shooting threat. He’s one that will take a ton of time but presents a ton of intrigue to a team patient enough to let him cook. Players like this have worked before; see Alex Torpchenko. Whether Prokhorov is more attuned to that violence or to using that violence to generate skill is a question to be asked, but I think he likely ends up being a bottom-six forward regardless. He’s interesting but will likely require 4+ years, and that in and of itself is a gamble. There’s tons of uncertainty but just enough intrigue for me.

Tier 6 - My Mistakes Were Made For You

43. Benjamin Kevan - RW - Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL)

Ben Kevan advertises as a player I should like, but I’ve never really been convinced of his upside. I just am of the line of thinking that players of Kevan’s style should bring more than he currently does to the table. Even in this year’s draft, I find the idea of drafting a skilled speedster with strong two-way play is better fulfilled by players I have up this list (Hi, Svrcek).

Kevan did start off hot this year, and that may have primed me to be more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. For what it’s worth, he really did have some really high-end games in those early months. He was flat-out more mobile than anyone around him, and he’d zip across the ice, challenging defenders, weaving through traffic, and getting flashy with his hands, throwing in crossovers all the while. There was more effort in just trying wacky stuff, and it garnered worthwhile attention. Sure, flash without results is just flash, but the second dimension in his two-way play kind of made up for that. Kevan was willing to get involved off-puck, backchecking and forechecking with his speed. He was creating turnovers at a good rate too, thanks in part to his good anticipation, and when he properly corralled the puck, he could dart up-ice or hit a man deep. The defensive zone play was fine, doing the basics with good effort. The effort down low was noticeable too, despite not winning a ton of battles. Belief in Kevan is to believe in his tools. That somewhere in all of this you can craft a solid middle-six winger. One that remains a dynamic puck carrier and strong counterattacker that can contribute off the rush.

Kevan just hasn’t really given me grounds to believe this is his style of play. Part of being a winger of that type demands having a strong finishing ability, something I find Kevan seriously lacking in. The juxtaposition of this being about the same player who clutched up and scored the bronze-medal-winning goal for the USA isn’t beyond me, but I still hold it true. Of the few goals Kevan has this season, most have come from low-% areas. His shooting patterns aren’t great either, a lot coming off of contested entries that goalies smother quite easily. I also wished to see Kevan use the ice more laterally in those situations. More often than not, Kevan’s puck-carrying ability is for the purpose of establishing possession, stopping, and starting to hit a trailer. That’s fine, but for a player of Kevan’s tools, I really wanted to see him put in that extra effort to beat defenders.

Maybe it’s a coaching thing? Maybe Kevan’s being reined in a bit too much? I couldn’t say, but I do find that it really put a damper on Kevan’s performance and production as the season wore on. The energy was dissipating, the habits became inconsistent, and the flash sort of dried up. I would surely hope this is something that fixes itself if he goes to Arizona State, as they are a bit more lenient about letting their guys play.

It’s for that reason that I am choosing to be a bit more conservative with Kevan. The tools for a good middle-six winger are still here, and I would be surprised if this rough 2nd half became his normal. He may take a little longer, but I still think there’s a good shot at an NHL forward here if he gets his swagger back, adds some finishing ability, and goes to the right team. Some patience might be necessary, though.

44) Semyon Frolov - G - MHK Spartak Moskova (MHL)

Frolov had a chaotic season, playing for 3 different MHL clubs of wildly varying levels. Jumping between both Silver Divisions and finishing the season with the Western Champions in Spartak Mokova. If there’s one thing that didn’t follow him to any of those teams, it was goals.

Frolov was the farthest tape by a mile from where I stood. He may be a bit of a happy medium between the super athletic and super poised goalies that dominate this class, but he’s arguably the best of the set in settling play down. Frolov handles the easy saves with his ability to precisely read the flow of play and stay high and square to the initial shot. As a result, Frolov almost always makes the saves you expect him to make, and with his really good play reading, he’ll get some you don’t too. There's lots to like in how well he controls his laterals when he anticipates play. There’s a lot of detail here that I really appreciate. He’s one of the best at kicking pucks to the corners, he suffocates rebounds better than most his age, and he’s no slouch playing the puck either.

There are varying moments where I think Frolov struggles to see play through traffic off the cycle, but that’s something that comes and goes. I believe that he’ll end up on the positive side of that inconsistency; the puck tracking is just too awesome too frequently. If I had to choose one goalie to not only be a starter in the NHL but also be a good one, Frolov takes the cake hands down. Would I pick him in the first round? Maybe. I generally have an aversion to picking goalies that aren’t immediately some of the best outside the NHL super-high, which is why he lands here for me. Still, I could see the argument, especially in a year like this.

45) Bruno Osmanis - RW - IF Björklöven (HockeyAllsvenskan, Sweden)

Osmanis is one player that never seemed to settle right in my mind. He feels just a little different every time I’ve sat down to watch him, and I’ve come away feeling different every time.

The hallmark of Osamnis’ game is his quick playmaking. He loves to make fast, decisive passes into the slot to create chaos in front of the net or to set up teammates that are taking advantage of lagging defenders. Pretty much everything surrounding that skill varies by where he’s playing and what level. With the men’s team and at the World Juniors, this skill was accompanied by the speed of Osmanis’ game. Osmanis has a hot motor and can definitely blaze trails in open ice. He was very effective at getting into the zone in my viewings, and while he struggled to establish possessions, it was often the result of the opportunity in the first place. If on the opposite wing, Osmanis constantly found ways to get open and understood his assignment of “keep play active,” which he achieved with moderate success.

The Osmanis we saw at the J20 level were quite a bit different. The motor was much less pronounced, and Osmanis settled to be a really low-pace, perimeter playmaker. Again, the bread and butter of those quick passes to the slot remained and came with remarkable regularity. While Osmanis may not be the biggest player, he actually found a good deal of success along the walls. He was consistently finding ways to get the puck through confidence, quick turns, and a strong, active stick.

The two players presented seem very different, but they both pay homage to different styles of Osmanis games, and I think that blend of the two is likely what he looks like if he ever goes to North America. He won’t be the fastest player on the ice, nor will he be the strongest, but the value in his ability to find the slot and the varied ways he can achieve that goal should lend well to an NHL team’s middle-six in a high-energy, scoring-leaning role. Maybe he’s one of those guys that can even manage as a player on both special teams. There’s reasonable upside here.

For Osmanis to reach those heights, he’s going to need to develop a bit more physically and refine those physical traits. Just being fast and confident isn’t going to win you a lot of pucks at the NHL level. Better habits with his stride and footwork will likely help as well. The big concern with Osmanis, though, lies in his game away from the puck, most notably in the defensive end. As a winger, Osmanis needs to be able to facilitate exits better. Far too often, across all levels of play, Osmanis is way too quick to leave the zone and place his defenders in tough situations as he fails to get open. Even if the pass they pull is in their wheelhouse, Osmanis struggles to corral these pucks at times and tends to be caught with his head down in those moments too.

Ideally, with more time in the Allsvenskan, Osmanis can work through these issues and, most hopefully, develop more physically. The quicker Osmanis can learn to handle the physical part of the game while still keeping his high-intensity play, the faster he will fit in the North American game, and the better his odds for NHL time will be.

46) Sean Barnhill - RD - Dubuque Fighting Saints (USHL)

I don’t know if there are many players who have benefitted from their draft season as much as Barnhill has. At the very least, he’s a strong candidate for most improved player. I found him very vanilla in my first viewings, as is par for the course for most big skate defenders, but as the season went on, more and more high-end ability showed up.

It started with his skating, something that Barnhill always had. The fluid stride and quick feet were always there, but the applications got a lot more interesting. Barnhill’s small area game really impressed me, highlights of him hounding forwards in corners, cutting off their space the second they believe they find some. I still can’t believe he was able to play this brand of hockey in such squeaky-clean fashion. Strong defensive play as a USHL rookie and only collecting 14 PIMs doing so? Very impressive. This alone would be enough for me to consider Barnhill in the 3rd round range to be a shutdown defender, but he just keeps building. Then, he started to play aggressively in the offensive end, pinching on plays and joining the rush. Then, he’s leading the rush, confidently skating the puck into the offensive zone and fishing for offense. Then, his offensive game started seeing some mixups. He was deking, he was doing give-and-go’s, and adjusting his speed. It’s so hard to imagine the player in October was the same person in April.

I get to thinking about how much Barnhill can still stand to add and get giddy. His results so far have been very subtle, but with his current trajectory, I am excited at the prospect of him becoming a top-4 defender. If he can become an even better puck carrier, if he can add even more muscle, if he can get even more offensively involved, where is the ceiling here? I think Barnhill has definitely done enough to warrant the question, as there seems to be nothing outside of his reach at the moment. Even if he does likely end up as a shutdown defender if he were to make the NHL, I think that Barnhill will still find ways to punch his way up lineups. Keep his name pinned, and don’t be shocked if he goes early on day 2.

47) Daniil Skvortsov - LD - Guelph Storm (OHL)

Skvortsov, and no exaggeration here, might end up being the best defender in this class. He checks pretty much every single defensive box you can ask for. Huge, rangy, physical, composed, and always engaged. All the details are there to boot: he engages with his stick before finishing with the body, he steps up and kills plays before they start, and he stands up at the neutral zone to force dumps and kill rushes. And, this part is very important to me, Skvortsov does all of this with the cleanest record you can imagine. 12 PIMs for an OHL rookie top-pair defender that faced as many chances against as the Guelph Storm did is mighty impressive. It’s the repertoire of ways he defends too: stick lifts, poke checks, hits, pins, and positioning. Skovrtsov just does it all, at least to some extent. I kind of recoiled the first time I heard a rumor that he might garner 1st round attention, but it’s something I’ve begun to understand.

There are definitely going to be some barriers to cross. Skvortsov can be caught watching at moments and still has some work to be done on his reads. A regular occurrence in my viewings would be Skvortsov hard-committing that a forward was going to attack the perimeter, just to have the puck chipped over his shoulder and the opponent dodging the contact. Nothing unexpected for a junior player to struggle with, but something I imagine will be worked on as he climbs the ranks.

As he does, I also imagine his offensive game to improve. Skvortsov is sneakily effective at activating and supporting on the weak side. Honestly, just having the composure to skate and hold the puck after he creates a turnover is enough, but he has the anticipation and the confidence to jump into plays and flip possessions himself. That same confidence and anticipation contribute to a ton of extended offensive zone possessions at the hands of Skvortsov’s pinches. It’s simple, but it’s enough for a defensively focused defenseman.

Plenty of reason to see a top 6 PK, 5v5 shutdown NHL defender to some degree here. I can even see him play up in a lineup as a foil to a smaller top pair RD. He’s definitely got the tools and skills to hang. That’s worth a high selection.

48) Cameron Schmidt - RW - Vancouver Giants (WHL)

Let the record show that I really, really, really tried to force myself to like Cameron Schmidt this year. He’s got one of the best shots in the draft. It’s snappy, accurate, and goes out like a light. He’s an intense, explosive straight-line skater. He plays above his size, and I love when he throws a reverse hit. There are magical moments where everything just glues together and the highlight reel explodes, and I throw myself into a fit of laughter over how he executed such a low-percentage play. I seriously think that Schmidt might bring the best raw offensive package in the draft in sheer form of what he’s capable of doing. He’s a ton of fun, and there’s a lot to fall in love with.

I just don’t see how Schmidt carries it over to the NHL. He’s such a demanding player to facilitate, largely because his game away from the puck… It’s really bad. Something that the Cole Caufields and Alex DeBrincats of the world have to play their style is a fantastic sense for playing in open ice. They find it faster than anyone else; they get there faster than anyone else, and they are virtually flawless once they get there. Schmidt’s off-puck pathing is just wild at times, running routes that trespass into Middle-Earth, encroaching on teammates space, or just going away from play. He constantly takes off before his teammates have control of the puck and is so fast that he’s often skating at nothing before he realizes that play is not going in his favor. It makes the act of getting the puck onto Schmidt’s stick a challenge in and of itself. To be fair to Schmidt, that really isn’t his game though. All of the value in his game is focused on what he does when the puck gets on his stick, but that just makes projectability harder. I really don’t think so, and I don’t believe there’s any NHLer that plays like him either. It’s not like there’s a complete product here either; Schmidt is thoroughly underpolished. He’ll bobble passes, he’ll stay away from the walls, and he won’t get low to support his defenders.

I think this was really highlighted at the U18s. Outside the opener vs. Slovakia, Schmidt constantly struggled to influence play positively and was dropped down the lineup as a result. He dug deep into his bag of tricks, but against the defenders that, on average, were just bigger and wider than him, Schmidt struggled to find ways to breakaway from the muck without placing himself wildly out of position. I noticed frustration build up in him. Poor shot selection and untimely penalties followed. You have to question the decision-making and if there’s an actual NHL-caliber pro here outside the player. Still, I can’t blame someone for wanting to be optimistic and rely on Schmidt’s talent. There’s definitely a path where everything works out, but it’s going to have to see his game take a full overhaul. He’s not one now, but he has to become a Cole Caufield-type player. Super efficient, way better off-puck, and approaches it all with his daring-do. Maybe, just maybeeeee Schmidt can earn a top-6 role.

He’s definitely boom/bust, and from my spot for him, I think it is evident that this is one where I am erring on the side of caution, but even I can’t deny that somewhere in some chaos god’s wildest dream, maybe, just maybe, he can make it.

49) Quinn Beauschene - RD - Guelph Storm (OHL)

Beauchesne brings pretty much everything I want in a defender. During his time with an admittedly poor Guelph team, he consistently found ways to pop off the screen and have me oo-ing and ah-ing. Beauchesne’s a remarkable skater that brings agility, 4-way mobility, and remarkable power to his stride. Beauchesne gets so much value out of it because he’s naturally super aggressive, and it’s all over his game.

Defensively, this takes the form of closing gaps with darted speed to win a race or prevent a breakout or forcing carriers to the outside by matching their stride. He’s not the most physical defender, but he’s not shy to step up and grit his teeth. This was especially evident at the U18s, where, in a more shutdown role, Beauchesne was blocking shots, holding players up in the neutral zone, and battling down low. He’s no softie, and his constant engagement and ability to re-enter play make Beauchesne a player that demands effort to be beaten.

The on-puck game is where Beauchesne really shines. He’s got such a good map of the ice and is constantly churning his feet. Locked in? Against OHL competition? He looked untouchable. There were whole periods where Beauchesne felt like the catalyst behind every single Guelph exit, that completed every pass, joined every rush, and constantly found his way into the slot to get a good shot off. The deception on display was mesmerizing, constantly feinting his directions and showcasing some really interesting ideas off the cycle and in the neutral zone.

I think there’s a ways to go for Beauchesne to gain the polish he needs to pull this game off consistently. His execution varies, and he’s prone to the odd unforced error. I would also hope that he still has room to round out his frame, as I imagine he will need to see some physical development to find NHL ice. I think there’s a lot to work with, though, and there are definitely the signs of a kid who wants to do everything. I imagine a dev team can go a long way with him, and he serves as a great differential to what I think is likely to be a 1st round pick in Cameron Reid. Getting this guy in rounds 2-4 instead? Considering he’s also a righty? There’s some good value to be had.

50) Max Psenicka - RD - Portland Winterhawks (WHL)

Yet another big defenseman that skates well in this tier, but unlike the players further up this list, he’s one that I had to warm up to.

I had caught on to him right after the new year while watching David Roszival with the Czech junior team and came out quite unimpressed. The lack of polish on his game was what was immediately noticeable, and even against lower-level competition, it proved very hit or miss. He would constantly be trying to pinch down low or look for ways to get shifty but often threw away his own good work to become a pitching machine from the top end of the circles. Even in that context, Psenicka struggled to hit the net with frequency, and despite having the tools to take over games, rarely was able to string things together. Too many gaffes, too many blown opportunities, and too many bad ideas kept him off my list in February.

Since he landed in Portland, he slowly grew on me. Away from carrying the offensive responsibility (thank you, Tyson Jugnauth), Psenicka was able to play a more conservative style. One that I think compliments him much better. I started to really appreciate the toolset now that they were being placed in proper contexts. Psenicka’s skating saw remarkable improvement, and he was able to hold his own at higher paces. The defensive habits started creeping in a bit more too; he was rotating well, and he was doing a much better job of staying ahead of play while adding some aggressiveness and taking further advantage of his reach. His ability to stop the rush was immediately noticeable. He was a pest along the walls and at the net front. Even the traits that I think did land him attention in Czechia started to see better use. His offensive reads started hitting a bit more; he was much more comfortable holding the puck and was using his passing to orchestrate exits well. It was honestly night and day, and I understand the excitement that generated.

Understandably, there’s still a ton of work to be done. Something that didn’t go away with his time in the WHL was that lack of polish in Psenicka’s moment-to-moment gameplay. He’s prone to error, making the occasional questionable read that goes the other way. I was a bit underwhelmed by his performance in the WHL playoffs, where I found he struggled to defensively handle some of the WHL’s best. Wrongly reading carriers as well as not getting the most out of his reach and frame. He definitely could stand to tighten his gaps too. For a player that projects as a shutdown defender, I would’ve liked to see a bit more shift-to-shift consistency in the application of those really good physical traits he has.

I think there’s still a ways to go with Psenicka, but I can understand the appeal. Outside Limatov, I would say he carries the highest upside of any option outside the top 30, especially considering he’s quite lanky at the moment. I don’t think he’s perfectly in tune with his pro path at the moment. He’ll need more time to glue his pieces together, but there’s a potential top-4 defender here for sure. I think next year will be a big test for him. If he is to return to Portland, he’s likely to take over top unit responsibility with the departure of Tyson Jugnauth. This places him back into the situation he found himself in with the Czech national team, one where he’s going to be relied upon to play heavy minutes and make strong contributions at both ends. Not a role I found he excelled in before, but maybe he’s turned a corner?

51) Kashawn Aitcheson - LD - Barrie Colts (OHL)

I’ve never gotten the hype with Aitcheson, and, yeah, this is probably going to be picked apart later, but this was something I came to after a lot of internal deliberation, and it’s something I am confident in holding.

First, I think it’s important that I say there’s a big difference in how Aitcheson is being advertised and how I am actually perceiving him. Aitcheson is being touted as this hyper-physical monster hitter that kills everything that moves. This is just not true. According to InStat, Aitcheson had 97 hits over the entire OHL season, good for 43rd in the OHL. Across the CHL, he’s not even in the top 150. For someone that “hits everything that moves,” Aitcheson sure doesn’t do a lot of hitting compared to his peers. In my observations, a lot of the muck that Aitcheson gets involved in usually happens after the whistle. Some may call value to that, but I generally see it as a good way to get sent to the penalty box. And get sent to the box Aitcheson does, as he lands 10th in the OHL in penalties taken. To his credit, still an improvement on last season, where he ranked 3rd in the OHL, one minor away from tying the league lead. This is not to call into question Aitcheson’s physical play; he’s definitely physical, just perhaps suffering from a bit of over-reporting. What I think this is more indicative of is a player that constantly throws caution to the wind, who punishes regardless of context or circumstance. And that’s fine. If you ask me, Aitcheson’s physicality is more a tool to benefit his defensive game and should translate into a good battler that keeps things to the walls at the NHL level.

Where the value comes from is his offensive ability. Aitcheson’s one of the more engaged offensive defensemen this class has to offer. Constantly jumping in on the rush, playing trailer, activating the weak side. And there are times when that works. His shot is a legitimate offensive weapon at this level, and he loves to use it. But again, the lack of restraint and nuance rears its head. Aitcheson blasts everything. He will overtake his own forward’s lanes, overextending and overstaying offensive possessions until he’s forced to play catch-up. He’s not the best puck carrier either, so he’s often relying on teammates to find him and trust that it works out. Sometimes, it does! and it looks great! But other times you’re left shaking your head, wondering why Aitcheson felt that play was necessary. As one of the older players in this draft, you’d have to see some of this decision-making improved by now.

Even outside of that, there are some core issues that prevent Aitcheson from playing this style at the pro level. He’s not the best puck-moving option; he owns one of the highest turnover rates in the OHL. He’s not the best option to have in the defensive zone; he struggles to maintain gaps and follow the puck through quick movements, and despite the effort shown to battle down low, he doesn’t win a lot of those engagements.

After 500 words of mostly negative talk about how I view Aitcheson, I wouldn’t blame the average reader for dismissing me as a hater, and honestly, maybe I am. Despite all of this, I do think Aitcheson is a very likely NHLer. Some team, somewhere, is going to pick him and do everything possible to make him work. The core of my issue with Aitcheson is that even if everything works out and he does land a top-4 NHL role, is this a player I’d want to play with? I keep seeing visions of the Rangers-era Jacob Trouba. Both are highly engaged physical defensemen with booming shots that have serious offensive ability, but they are being cast as defensive options when they really don’t fit that mold. And Aitcheson has a long way to go before he’s on a player of Trouba’s level; is even that out of his reach? If so, is that bottom-pair option that Aitcheson projects to be so valuable to throw a first- or second-round pick on? I don’t know. He’s still a good enough bet that I can’t rationalize dropping him too low, but I can’t say I’m confident in his projection if he stays on his current path.

52) Jack Murtagh - RW - U18 USNTDP

Murtagh is the NTDP’s power forward-lite. A large part of his value is found in his skate-and-shoot ability, and it’s pretty damn good. He’s got the straight-line speed, puck-protection tools, and the confidence to just zoom through defensive lines at this level. His shot is a weapon, and one that Murtagh isn’t afraid to unload; even when it’s not an available option, Murtagh has no issue dropping his shoulder and just charging the net ala Josh Anderson. Definitely one of the scariest players to see carrying the puck on his team if you are an opposing defender. So why the “-lite” label? Murtagh does not always rely on raw athleticism to beat defenders. On contested entries, Murtagh will often rely on quick changes of direction and quick dekes to create space for himself along the wall, mitigating the contact he needs to take on so he can squeeze past them. I think Murtagh can stand to pass the puck and get creative a bit more often, as he has shown considerable vision and skill when he’s got his head up.

Outside that straight-line ability is where Murtagh’s game kinda gets murky. His ability to actually create advantages for himself is something that will need to see work. He’s a bit of a “win-more” player, which isn’t a death sentence for players of this style, but it’s a definite spot for improvement that would go a long way. There’s definitely a foundation here that tells me Murtagh can get there if he’s able to take more advantage of his board play. As it stands, Murtagh is all too willing to take those board engagements and struggles to make much happen when he gets there. If he at least gets to the point where he can stall for support, I think it would go a long way in having him get more possessions out of those deep carries he gets. The most damning habit of Murtagh’s has got to be his unwavering commitment to keeping his head down. I think it is a point Murtagh absolutely must improve if he is going to continue to create offense even at the NCAA level. I imagine there’s going to have to be a few hits that send him to outer space before he gets that, though.

If Murtagh can build around that skill set he has established, it’s very easy to see him land himself in a top 9 energy role, Josh Anderson-ing it up. But as it stands, Murtagh is just TOO simple. Far too quick to put his head down and lock into his play, even if a bit of pre-scanning could tell him that’s a terrible idea. His version of problem-solving tends to be “power through it” or “bank it off the wall and chase” to very uninspiring results. Murtagh finds the zone decently well now, but those chances will dry up as he rises through the levels, and he’s going to need to find better ways to problem solve than “go faster” or “take the hit,” especially if he still struggles to challenge the middle of the ice like he has. There are foundations to be found here, but Murtagh will definitely need to dig a little deeper before he’s a confident NHL option. But considering his late birthday and very simple game, his path is one of the better defined in the class. Checked expectations should provide a decent player.

53) Alexei Medvdev - G - London Knights (OHL)

It’s hard to say that Medvedev hasn’t been a beneficiary of the strong London system, but that doesn’t take away from the good stuff on display. Medvedev’s key tool is his composure. Of the goalies in this class, he’s probably the most methodical mover, using calm positioning rather than his reflexes to make most of his saves. That composure carries over to his play on the puck; he skates out of his crease with confidence and doesn’t panic even under pressure. Sometimes to a fault.

To be an NHL goalie, I believe Medvedev will need to work on his ability to track the puck. He’s a little quick to get into his butterfly, which robs him of getting some important vision and leaves him very vulnerable to good deflections. Regardless, he can stand to be a bit more square to his shots, which should make his 1v1 ability and cross-crease saves come a bit easier.

Considering the size and age, there’s plenty of reason to buy low on Medvedev, and I think he offers a great differential to what some of the other goalies in this draft provide. I also feel like he’s the least controversial goalie in the draft oddly enough. He’s few people’s favortie but rarely outside a top 3.

54) Tinus Luc Koblar - C - Leksands IF J20 (J20 Nationell, Sweden)

One of the players to have seen the least amount of movement on my board, Luc Koblar brings something relatively rare in this class: genuine center projectability. His physical game is strong, and he’s got the 6’3 frame to play within it. TLK feels right at home in dirty areas, playing the net front at both ends of the rink. This is what gets TLK on people’s radar, but what keeps him on boards is his intelligence. He’s a fantastic distributor, tossing dotties out all over the ice with impeccable timing. It’s all over his game, on the breakout, on exits, on the cycle, east-west, north-south, cross-lane, off the walls or in corners; there seems to be no time and place TLK cannot find a teammate. There’s no ego in his game, shown by his effort to do the dirty work of clogging the neutral zone and blocking shots when asked. That’s not to say he’s a wallflower either; TLK has often shown a capacity for carrying the puck using his strong handling as well as really good shot selection once he finds space. TLK’s intelligence also shows off-puck, where he uses his super wide reach to pressure defenders; he chooses his engagements very effectively.

That said, adding another gear of speed is going to be essential if the NHL upside were to materialize. TLK can get behind on the rush and will struggle to use his off-puck skills to the effect he has at higher levels. There are some details that can use some work too. He struggles to corral passes at times, and he is prone to the odd goofy mistake, like taking a slip on his edges, failing to properly receive passes, or losing the puck while in motion. The latter two are problems that have surfaced a little more than I would care to admit.

The combination of patience, physicality, and intelligence is so bottom-six center coded that TLK finding NHL time feels like a foregone conclusion, but the ceiling is still something that keeps me coming back. I was really impressed with how TLK performed at the U18s for Norway. He was more often than not away from the Norwegian stars in Mikkel Eriksen and Niklas Aaram-Olsen outside of the relegation game vs. Switzerland but still managed to own his minutes, and I believe he got better as the tournament went on. I really want to say that TLK does have a sky-high ceiling, but it does feel like jumping the gun for the moment. I am very confident that he is an NHL player to some capacity, even if it’s in a bottom-six role. He reminds me a lot of Utah forward and Stanley Cup Champion Kevin Stenlund: mature, simple, and complete. Even if the skating doesn’t ever become a strength, I wouldn’t be surprised if Luc Koblar followed that path laid out for him. But why not dream a little? Norway deserves more NHLers.

Tier 7 - Wat’s Wrong

55) Joshua Ravensburgen - G - Prince George Cougars (WHL)

Low spot for the consensus star goalie of the draft, BUT, and I know I am not alone in this line of thought, the idea that he’s a deal overrated has visited me often. I was never really convinced that Ravensbergen was a goalie worthy of being selected in round 1 coming into the season. To take a risk like that, I need to see a goalie that’s as good as Askarov or Wallstedt or Knight, and I didn’t feel like Ravensbergen ever got to those heights this season. Sure, the Cougars defense wasn’t the strongest, but there were definitely some iffy performances that he can’t pass off.

On the ice, he’s quite chaotic in net. Rebound control is not a forte I’ve caught in viewings, and while he’s super good laterally, he overextends constantly, leaving himself in very vulnerable positions. But, honestly, none of that matters. The size and athleticism Ravensburgen carries will make up for a lot of flaws and give dev staffs a lot of room to work with. If any goalie deserves to be seen as a first-rounder this year, it’s definitely Ravensburgen, but I just like some options better, and I think he’s a bit more of a project.

56) Jakob Ihs-Wozniak - RW - Lulea HF J20 (J20 Nationell, Sweden)

I remember watching Ihs-Wozniak after the Hlinka and believing, “There’s no chance this guy is making my list,” after my own initial viewing and coming off the media backlash from his poor tournament play. Well… here he is. Goes to show that you can never trust early-season viewings!

In some ways, Ihs-Wozniak is still the same player that we saw back then. A lot of his value comes in the offensive zone, where Ihs-Wozniak loves to play finisher. He’s got a bullet of a shot, particularly in his one-timer that has propelled him above a lot of his peers on the J20 scoring leaderboard. Given time and space, he’s also shown considerable playmaking ability, likely as a result of his great understanding of getting the puck to and from open ice. Combine these together and you have a player that’s lethal in-zone, on the cycle, and especially on the power play. Ihs-Wozniak isn’t the smallest player either and can create the occasional transitional play using his puck protection and effective range to push off defenders that can’t match him physically.

In other ways, he’s totally different. Ihs-Wozniak has definitely added a layer of intensity to his game. He’s become a pretty strong forechecker and has been much more willing to hand out physical punishment to players that don’t respect his strength down low. The lack of effort in playing this game is what set Ihs-Wozniak’s expectations so low at season start, so I believe he’s due extra flowers for handling the music well.

Some bad habits remain. Ihs-Wozniak still struggles to create plays himself and is far too content to let play come to him. That willingness to let play develop in front of him not only looks bad on tape but also shows how far he needs to come to match NHL pace. He’s already struggling to stay ahead of the flow play as it is, and his skills aren’t so insanely valuable that he can afford to coast on talent.

I wouldn’t be surprised if, out of players in this range, Ihs-Wozniak was the only one to play in the NHL or even play in an NHL top 6, but considerable work needs to be done. He needs to get up to speed, and he needs to mature his game; most importantly, the rate of effort definitely needs to be better than what we’ve seen this year.

57) Matthew Gard - C - Red Deer Rebels (WHL)

Gard’s appeal is immediately noticeable just by looking at his profile. 6’4, 200 LB, C, April birthday? In a draft like this one, that’s already enough to get attention as a “safe pick.”

But Gard is one of the cases where I feel the old adages are proving true. Classic case of a hard worker that has a lot to work with. He pressures all over the ice, getting in lanes, harassing opponents, and sealing the puck in what feels like truly unfair games of keep-away. It is very easy to see an NHL-caliber checking forward in him. He’s not doing a ton of high-end plays, but the skill is respectable enough that he’s never going to be seen as a stone, and he shows promise as a give-and-go passer that has the ability to get to the net.

This may seem dismissive, but there really is not much else to say. Gard will likely find an NHL role; he’s too smart, hard-working, skilled, and physical not to at least hang in the conversation. An NHL team should have little to no problem turning him into a pro. If he can add some more high-end ability, then there may be optimism for Gard to be a scoring threat as well. Either way, good player, easy projection, safe floor. Not everyone needs 700 words.

58) Hayden Paupanekis - F - Kelowna Rockets (WHL)

Paupanekis is a really hard read for me, mostly because I feel like I have watched two wildly different variations of the same player throughout the year. When he was in Spokane, I really appreciated what Paupanekis brought to the table as a third-line player. He was a physical force that showed tons of defensive detail. Getting early contact, boxing guys out, and making quick plays or finding fast routes to get out of the zone with possession. Outside of being a consistently strong defender, Paupanekis consistently found ways to contribute in transition. While he did find the zone with some regularity, he would toss up a lot of shots and just get to the net and get face-offs. Not much to complain about; simple, effective, valuable, and with a real prospect to build on those foundations in time. Raw but easily translatable with his trajectory.

Clearly, Kelowna saw some vision and tried to focus on that offensive side of Paupanekis, including a role for him as a center. This makes sense for a ton of reasons: Paupanekis was already no stranger to getting deep in his own end to assist defenders. The skating ability wasn’t weak enough to keep him gated, and the physical tools weren’t going away. The motif that Kelowna clearly tried to push on Paupaenkis was to be more offensively leaning, to, I believe, mixed results. Without the supporting cast that Spokane provided and never really being the offensive catalyst himself, Paupanekis struggled to adjust but definitely took positive strides. I don’t think it’s ever going to be where his value lies, but it’s a positive to his potential pro game down the line.

In a draft context, Paupanekis’ profile jumps off the page. 6’4, 200 LB, playing C, decent skater, super defensively leaning, physical tools out the wazoo. He’s going to be picked, and probably earlier than I would like to admit. He’s a “safer” bet than most in this draft to be a depth forward.

But I don’t think it’s so simple. For Paupanekis to really grab NHL upside, I think he’s got to do more to actively contribute to possessions in his role. Adding some dawg would be very beneficial, as there are long periods where Paupanekis falls into the background. He’s not a real pace-pusher and hasn’t exhibited the pace of play that I think is going to be demanded of him if he wants to play at the NHL level. I believe some of this stems from a bit of mind-fog with Paupanekis trying to figure out what he needs to do and when, understandable considering the total swap in mindset that he’s had to take. It’s hard to be super confident in a “high-floor” player when the translatability doesn’t feel so 1-1 with their current style, well, at least not to me. There’s some stuff to work through here, but Paupanekis has proven worth the interest and will be an interesting player to follow. An NHL team will play him, that’s for sure.

59) Pyotr Andreyanov - G - Krasnya Moskva (MHL, Russia)

Coming off of an all-timer in the MHL, Andreyanov’s been simply too good to ignore. His confidence is always on display, standing at the top of his crease, daring shooters to try and beat him, and skaters to challenge him as he goes out to play the puck. Athleticism, puck-tracking, and lateral mobility are all serious passing grades too.

The issue is one of composure. Andreyanov, when comfortable, looks a lot smoother, a lot more mechanical in his movements; this kind of goes away in sustained pressures, and he makes up for it with bolder movements that can leave him exposed. It’s very similar to what I see in Pyotr Kochetkov, and I don’t think the similarities stop there.

I'm going to need to see Andreyanov take on higher levels before I am too confident in that comparison, though, but the potential for a tandem goalie here makes sense. Andreyanov’s definitely not done growing either, having gained 2 inches over the course of the season, making up for a serious size discrepancy from his peers. Definitely worth considerable consideration for the 2nd round. Sure, we may not see him in North America this decade, but there's been more than one Russian NHL goalie that he seemed to have no effect on.

60) Henry Brzustewicz - RD - London Knights (OHL)

Unlike most DY players this year, I don’t think Brzustewicz has any complaints about the environment he’s been placed in. The Knights are a juggernaut in the OHL and are so punishing up and down the lineup that there’s a real vibe of “whatever they do, works.” I mean that both physically and tactically, the Knights just eliminate their opponents ability to play the game. What that means for Brzustewicz was a generous allowance to explore offensively.

And on that top pair next to Sam Dickinson, Exploredid. On the puck, he showed promise as a strong puck carrier and a high-volume slot passer, not too dissimilar to his older brother. Off of the puck, Brzustewicz constantly activated, joining rushes and filling space all over the ice. Case in point, real high-event hockey whenever Brzustewicz is on the ice. This applied to the defensive end too, where Brzustewicz constantly got engaged along the walls and used his physicality to get plays off the boards with respectable consistency. If you value the foundations highly enough, I can see the top 64 appealing to a player like this, especially one with the size and profile of an RD that Brzustewicz brings.

I am just not wholly convinced yet. I see limitations in Brzustewicz's offensive side due to a very rigid skating posture that creates some very awkward movements when he tries to move laterally. I also think that he’s a bit too careless with the puck; that “high-volume slot-passer” label I dropped isn’t for show. Brzustewicz can stun me with the passes he attempts. He also struggles to move the puck out from down low in his own end, which is a huge concern for someone that I see as a potential puck-moving defender. He tends to be very trigger-happy on retrievals and shows that carelessness with the puck when he feels a forecheck coming on. Doesn’t really defend the rush explicitly well, but can use his reach to break up passing plays.

If there’s one thematic link between all of Brzustewicz’s strengths and weaknesses, it’s a need to keep play in front of him. When Brzustewicz is in control or in an advantageous state, he can make some really high-end stuff happen, but I believe that the main role of a defenseman is being able to play at a disadvantage and, perhaps more importantly, be the cause of change, to stop disadvantages and simultaneously start advantages. Brzustewicz doesn’t really check that box for me, but there’s room to work with here. There will need to be stylistic changes to Brzustewicz’s game, but opportunity, profile, and experience are in his favor here. Couldn’t ask for a project to be in a better spot.

61) Ashton Schultz - F - Chicago Steel (USHL)

The Steel didn’t win a ton of games this year, but when they did, Schultz's fingerprints were all over the game. He was the team’s heartbeat and the overall pacesetter for his club all year. Schultz’s typical shift doesn’t hop off the page. He plays a very mature, detailed two-way game that’s leagues above his current standing. Schultz constantly supported defenders and puck carriers, acting as a safety net in transition when he wasn’t carrying it himself. He constantly gets open, giving his teammates options, and is always the guy throwing himself into contested areas. It’s not attractive, but it works and could net him a job on North Dakota’s bottom six next year.

What keeps Schultz in the top 64 is that he does have a little bit of sexy to him. Those off-puck routes aren’t just for show; Schultz varies his approaches, keeping defenders guessing on the option he takes. I think he brings a deceptive amount of power to his skating too; the force he generates with the speed he gets once he’s flying isn’t something to be overlooked. Once he gets the puck, the deception just picks up from there. Schultz is a fantastic in-motion problem solver, using his handlings and quick passing to absorb and disperse pressure with ease. There are times I’d like to see Schultz shoot more, but he generally plays to be efficient, and while that does mean the odd opportunity flies by, he’s not turning the puck over needlessly either.

I do think that there’s a lot of room to grow. Schultz’s motor tended to run a little colder for him as the year wore on, so I hope we get to see a re-ignited player once he has something to play for again. That said, maybe that isn’t necessary, and playing that defensive role just suits him best? The 7-game point streak to wrap up the season would think so. I do think that if Schultz makes the NHL, it will likely be more in capacity to that defensive side. Probably as a modern bottom-6 PK option with the skill showing up on occasion. I think the head on his shoulders and the style to win coaches over will net him more opportunities than it may seem. He’s one I am excited to follow.

62) Max Westergård - LW - Frolunda J20 (J20 Nationell, Sweden)

Another speedy boi, Westergård has made his living off of being the Yin to future first-rounder Ivar Stenberg’s Yang this season. He’s one of the few players at this level that can hang with Ivar Stenberg’s pace, and he looked good doing it.

That being said, I was off the wagon with Westergård until very late into the season. Until he got his SHL reps, that is. I had always known what Westergård brings to the table, but I didn’t think he’d be able to execute so well vs. men. He’s insanely light but just mobile enough to keep one stride ahead of defenders. The effort was constantly there, and his confidence in darting to open space and playing through traffic really stood out. There are a lot of flashes of stuff in Westergård’s game that catch my attention too. There’s a bit of a pest in him too; he’s not afraid to muck it up.

Still, I just don’t really have a vision with him at the NHL level. Players of this style, who use their skating to create space or quick strike plays, exist; I just don’t know how much of what Westergård has is pure confidence and how much is actually informed decision-making. I really mourn that there’s not more tape of him in the SHL because I sure would love to see it. Outside of those pro games, I don’t think Westergård has been placed in spots to grow. The J20 is a cakewalk for him because he can just blitz through entire defenses that give him massive swathes of ice to work with, and the Finnish National Team’s system is just too slow to take advantage of Westergård’s strengths, which has been a regular observation of mine throughout the year.

The picture for me, at least, is still a bit blurry and is likely going to remain so for the time being, but there’s still plenty to bet on. Westergård’s one of the youngest players in the class with room to grow and a very valuable set of skills to work with. Who knows where that takes him?

63) Dakoda Rheaume-Mullen - LD - University of Michigan (NCAA)

Of all the players to go to college this year, Rheaume-Mullen was the one that surprised me the most. Why go play 3rd pair on Michigan when you can chill for a whole season on the NTDP’s top unit, being the offensive foil to Charlie Trethewey? I still don’t feel like I have a good answer to that, and I can understand the divide in opinion with him.

For starters, the mobility is THE hallmark of DRM’s game. It’s his ubiquitous answer to all situations that the game sends him. He’s a strong four-way mover that combines quick pivots, strong crossovers, and high speed to harass puck carriers, create space for himself, and go for little expeditions in the neutral zone. It’s the most projectable tool in DRM’s box of tricks and will likely remain so. I like that he’s grown increasingly confident and aggressive in its application, even if he does get overwhelmed by bigger players on occasion. There’s potential for a good chance suppressor here. DRM currently uses his skating to be a strong transition player, carrying his exits or quickly reloading in open ice to find teammates in the neutral zone. I am a big fan of his ability to find exits; DRM just reads through his progressions so effortlessly, really adding to the fluidity in the feel of his game.

This is where the consistencies stop and projection gets challenging. DRM flashes a lot of stuff, and how much of that actually stays in his game and properly develops is a bit of a mystery. There’s offense to him as defined by his transition play, but there’s also a side of him that likes to step up and take a shot through players, that likes to look for cross-crease passes, that’s willing to try and hold the line to extend possessions. There’s a defensive side too. DRM is constantly battling for inside positioning; he doesn’t slouch on covering his assignments and uses his stick to great effect in open ice. Sure, his frame doesn’t really support this game, and there are times he gets beaten even when he makes the right play, but the effort is there.

My take on DRM is that he’s not strong enough in either category to be a defined option, at least not yet. I do think that if he does work out, it will likely be because he adds to his offensive game, and he manages to churn out as a bottom-pair or depth puck-moving option. But that’s just me. As DRM fills out, maybe that defensive game does come along, or maybe the offensive game arriving was a matter of DRM getting comfortable at the NCAA level? Who knows? He’s a mystery box.

64) Ryan Miller - LW - Portland Winterhawks (WHL)

For most of the year, I held Ryan Miller in my HMs or 90s. “Too straight-lined,” I’d say, “not a strong enough skater,” I’d say. But in preparing this write-up, I decided to go back and give him another look during the WHL playoffs, one last confirmation of what I saw, and ended up watching him for a whole night. While I didn’t exactly see anything I did not expect, I found myself astonished by the impacts Miller had shift-to-shift. Maybe I was catching the wrong games or in the wrong state of mind, but I could not have been more impressed.

A lot of it has to do with Miller’s offensive game. You wouldn’t think that a player that’s only dropped 31 points this year is this much of an offensive force, but the tape isn’t lying. Miller’s vision and his ability to act on it with impeccable timing are nothing short of impressive. It’s not uncommon to see Miller thread needles with his passing game; he just sees gaps so damn well and rarely misses his target. A very efficient shooter, he rarely took a bad shot and chose his spots well when he knew he had a bad look, getting the puck high to prompt the goalie to catch and freeze or aiming at the pads to fish for rebounds.

The details are also just excellent. The way he angles his lower body to establish space for himself, the way he soars on the backchecks, his stick placement as he’s at walls, the speed at which he runs his routes in transition, and yet is still able to adapt to changes in play to constantly support teammates. Personally, I don’t think there’s any criticism I can leverage about how Miller plays away from the puck that doesn’t feel like nitpicking.

The only thing gating Miller is some true defining skill, something to separate him from his peers. The skating is good enough to earn separation, but it’s not explosive, and he’s not the sharpest on his edges. He’s strong on the puck but can still be overpowered and doesn’t carry the largest frame. He’s a decent puck carrier but doesn’t have the 1v1 skill or insane individual ability to flat-out beat defenders. Miller loves to challenge the middle of the ice but doesn’t really have the tools to be at his best in that situation. I do believe he can work as a rush attacker, but he’s better off establishing possessions than he is bursting through defensive lines. That lack of a defining factor is what’s going to be Miller’s obstacle to overcome. It’s hard to project someone that doesn’t really stand out physically or intensely enough to the NHL game.

Regardless, Miller’s style is emulatory of a ton of middle-six forwards in the NHL, and I really think that the way he’s wired will bring him where he needs to go. Considering that Miller is going to Denver after next season, a match that could not be any better, I am very confident that Miller finds a role in an NHL top 9, even if it’s just as a complimentary forward that plays for possessions and concedes being the skill option off to his teammates or as a penalty killer or as an energy player. I just think there’s just too much value on the table with him to not work at all.

65) Haoxi “Simon” Wang - LD - King Rebellion (OJHL) / Oshawa Generals (OHL)

I don’t think I’ve heard a better analysis of Wang than what my ol’ pal Taahaa Lone said in a random conversation in January. “How much hockey do you believe you can teach someone at 17 years old?” It’s a thought that stays with me whenever I watch Wang, haunting me like a phantom, because I quite honestly don’t have a good answer or rebuttal when I try to formulate a concrete opinion on how I view Wang.

Sure, I have groaned at the gas that some players of his archetype have had before, but still I like to think myself a bit more positive on Wang in contrast to some others. There are things here that I like. He uses his reach decently and showcases some interesting decision-making and can occasionally hop into play offensively to support his forwards. But there are just as many habits I’d like to see him shake off (please stop icing the puck, man). And he’s not the loudest dog in the kennel either; there are times that Wang loses puck battles or gets beaten 1v1 just because someone outworks him or reads him too easily. There’s also some not-good decision-making, particularly on retrievals, where I’ve seen one too many no-look back-passes to forecheckers. He often looks like a player playing above his league, and that’s expected.

Honestly, I don’t think it matters what Wang is stylistically considering he is THIS raw. There’s a lot that needs to come, and whoever drafts him will need to brace for that. I may like Wang enough to want to see this work, but it’s a tough ask to rank him over players that already have the skills he’s looking to add.

66) Topias Hynninen - LW - Jukurit (Liiga, Finland)

Hynninen has taken a big step forward this year, going from “the other draft-eligible” on Jukurit to what I would say is their best player. The same things that made Hynninen appealing are still there. He’s still a hound for the puck and still an enticing playmaker from time to time.

But I grow concerned that the Finnish league is eroding some of the good habits that made me so high on him last year. The neutral-zone play is a bit more passive; he doesn’t commit as hard to his forechecking as he did, and he’s not as hungry to fetch space down low. It’s an honest shame because skills like this would serve him so well in the North American game as a genuine pace-pusher, but in Finland, where the flying V is considered a viable breakout strategy (and one I caught Hynninen defending in one of my viewings), it’s seen as impatience. He’s not getting rewarded for doing good stuff.

I seriously hope an NHL team drafts him for the sole purpose of putting him in the AHL. Sit him there and see what you get; I wouldn’t be surprised if you find a 3rd line forward. If Hynninen doesn’t get drafted this year, I may have to hop off the train, but I will always hold his memory precious to me. Someone pick him, please.

67) Mason West - F - Edina High (USHS-MN) / Fargo Force (USHL)

I don’t think any high-school player had a better late-season USHL stint than West. The kid is huge (6’6) and definitely looks it, but he leans way more on finesse than you’d think. A stunningly smooth skater for his size and a remarkable passer that can shuttle passes through just about anything with his great vision and long reach. Has a fantastic understanding of using his body to get between opponents and the puck and using sharp cuts to attack the middle. West is at his best when he’s working in open ice and destroying passing lanes with his passing game and off the puck as a very aggressive, long-reach forechecker. The high school wasn’t very conducive to showcasing those skills, and I feel like West lost out a bit as a result. He looked like a raid boss or a prime-of-his-life gym teacher joining the weak side of a dodgeball game. At times, his attention waned and the engagement would drop quite low, but he was nonetheless effortlessly dominant. So while there are details that need to come, I am optimistic about if he can develop it with time and effort.

The catch? We didn’t even know if this guy even wanted to play hockey for the majority of the year. He’s played QB at Edina High the entire season and turned down an opportunity to join the NTDP to pursue it. A decision that has been back and forth as far as rumors go. Even with his newfound NCAA commitment, West is still going back to Edina, setting development really behind. If West pursued hockey at season start, I'd say there’s a case to pick him as early as round 2, but I can't shake the ick that this is a player that doesn't really want to play hockey. At its best it is childish naivety; at worst it's just being non-committal. I am choosing to be a little more cautious and let him be recognized a little further down my list, but if he had played all year in Fargo the way he showed or had gone to the NTDP, he would probably be a 2nd round contender.

68) Viggo Nordlund - LW - Skelleftea AIK (J20 Nationell / SHL , Sweden)

I really love Viggo Nordlund’s game. He plays a fast, high-engagement, high-energy game that noticeably stands out every time he comes on. This is especially true whenever he gets the puck on his stick. Nordlund’s a demon that weaves his handling skills with deception in his movements so fluently that even men in the SHL struggle to keep up. As soon as he finds his lane, Nordlund is quick to pull the trigger for his shot, and it comes out lightning fast. For a long time, my main concern with projecting Nordlund was an over-reliance on this game, but that’s something I find to have slowly phased out over the course of the year. Nordlund’s shown more willingness to make the extra pass or alter his speed to accommodate the flow of the game. It’s a work-in-progress, but the effort is definitely notable.

The off-puck game is where Nordlund’s projection mixes up. He’s still super effective in open ice, forechecking and backchecking and closing lanes in the defensive zone with his trademark speed. But as his size dictates, Nordlund struggles when plays go up to the wall. His footwork and small-area game are good, so he doesn’t get punished along the walls when playing against players of his age level, but the issue is something that will resurface when he climbs to a full-time role in the Allsvenskan next year and likely again if/when he comes over to North America.

Generally, as one of the oldest players in the class and with the inherent weakness in the physical game, you have to wonder if Nordlund is closer to a finished product. Is there enough room for growth, and does it address what Nordlund needs to bring to be an NHL player? For my money, I think if Nordlund already has what he needs to be a serviceable player in the AHL, that can serve well in an NHL energy role if the passing game develops and a team is willing to take a chance on him. I’m just a little skeptical that such an opportunity exists for him. Nordlund is definitely appealing enough on the surface to at least warrant an opportunity, though, and I would be very curious to see what his time in North America will force him to adapt into.

Tier 8 - Call Ticketron

69) Harry Nansi - F - Owen Sound Attack (OHL)

Nansi is still the big, hard-working playmaker I saw him as at season start. Chasing dumped pucks, winning a battle, and firing it across the slot was his bread and butter, and the weaker OHL defenses consistently had no answer. I don’t think there are many better board-battlers in the draft, and even fewer are able to turn those advantages into scoring chances using the width of the ice. If that’s all Nansi has to do in an NHL context, I am sure he will land himself a spot on a bottom-six someday, but there’s more to him yet.

However, that stagnation is a kind of problem. For the most part, Nansi doesn’t seem to have improved all that much from where he started this year, and it’s seen him take quite a tumble from the top end of my 2nd. He passes up on a ton of great shots, and his skating definitely needs to come some ways. The latter of which is a serious roadblock in Nansi’s development. If Nansi were a better skater, maybe he’d be more adept at handling pressure on entries. He does have good hands that can at times bail him out, but he lacks the coordination to pull those kinds of plays off consistently. All the more reason why I find it so disappointing that Owen Sound has kept him caged in the Attack’s bottom six.

If the skating comes along, I imagine that the rest will soon after, and Nansi, who is already a very defensively engaged player, will start having results to show for it too. The combination of runway and NHL projectability tells me that Nansi has a shot if given time, even if he’s likely a buy-low pick in the later rounds. While he is likely in for another season of kicking the can around in the Attack’s lineup, I am very curious as to what time in the NCAA can do to a player like this…

70) William Horcoff - F - University of Michigan (NCAA)

Not to be outdone by a draft-eligible Michigan teammate, Horcoff is THE blank slate of the draft. His profile sticks out; he’s 6’4 and lanky, and if you give him room to fill out, that’s going to serve him well at higher levels. But Horcoff is so very raw that he doesn’t give much inclination as to how he does it. He doesn’t have the skill level or skating prowess to seriously impact play in any direction. It’s not been uncommon for him to get swept up in the flow of play across all levels. There are moments of interesting creativity that have you think Horcoff can kind of figure it out one day as a power forward with some decent playmaking, but that feels a real ways away.

Even comparing him to some of the more recent raw, big players in the draft cycle, it’s hard to give a concrete reason as to why I’d choose Horcoff over them. Players like Dean Letourneau, Filip Bystedt, and so on all feel like they had a bit more going on. What he is probably doesn’t matter; some team is going to see the name, check his EP page, and pick him somewhere in the top 50, maybe even the first round, but to what end?

Feels like a player where you have to put it all on red and let it ride.

71) Anthony Allain-Samaké - LD - Sioux City Musketeers (USHL)

Boy oh boy, do I have a soft spot for Allain-Samaké. One of the most methodical and poised defenders this class has to offer. He goes through his progressions with such ease, such fluidity, that he has the feel of a 10-year veteran. A heck of a story for a player that was playing in the NCDC just last season. Rookie USHL defenders do not usually think and process the game at such a high level.

But, as awesome as it is, Allain-Samaké hasn’t really had a huge impact on the USHL yet. He’s just a victim of still being a bit underdeveloped outside his skating, mostly in just a lack of finer detail or raw tools. For example, he sees a great pass, but the timing is just not enough, and a defender picks him off, or he tries to challenge a forward in the corner, but his reach is just not enough to get a touch. Moments like that are constant, and I can’t help but feel that if Allain-Samaké were just a little bit faster, a little bit stronger, and a little bit more experienced, these things would work themselves out.

For the time being, even if nothing else develops, you have a very smart, smooth-skating, elusive defender with some serious skill to work with. That alone is worth top 96 consideration in my books. But considering Allain-Samaké is one of the youngest players in this class, I have to believe that he gets to those heights that he’s showing. I don’t know how his style will change if that development comes, but I am sure that Allain-Samaké will find success if it does. He may be a bit of a project, but he’s a damn good one.

72) Melvin Novotny - LW - Leksands IF J20 (J20 Nationell, Sweden)

Novotny is a doozy to project. My feelings on him are as mixed as a Bulk Barn that had all their containers smashed.

I think Novotny’s skating is a point where you can kinda see the issue of why projecting him is tough. For starters, there are games where he is SUPER floaty; I mean, he reloads by traveling half the length of the blue line, but he still generates good pace and speed while instilling some strong skill in there too. There’s a lot to like in how he moves down low too; he protects the puck super well and has the positional habits to constantly get inside positioning in those tough situations. There’s a ton of things Novotny does that call into question his weakness, so that it never feels right as an assessor to call it such, even though it definitely is. Novotny will struggle to create zone entries and outmaneuver defenders at higher levels of play, but he’s also equipped with the tools to overcome that.

The one thing that I can confidently say is that Novotny’s primary strength is his playmaking ability. He’s an exceptional, pro-detailed passer. His timing and vision are always on point; he does lack a bit of touch at times, but it’s something that has notably improved in more recent viewings. In-zone, off the rush, along the wall, nowhere Novotny can’t hit a target from.

But he’s not an offensive genius either; plenty of times, Novotny has wasted opportunities on low%, low-angle, or low-value shots. He’s not a very engaged defender either and doesn’t have the physical dog to be a menace down low. His approach to the physical game is all about self-preservation.

Classic junior scorer behavior, but I still find myself intrigued by the potential to work through his weaknesses. There’s an answer in Novotny's kit to every problem, but can he really round it all out into something projectable? Can he become such a high-end player that nobody cares? Who’s to say? The upside, I think, will tantalize someone into giving him a shot, but this is a project pick if one ever existed.

73) Charlie Trethewey - RD - U18 USNTDP

Trethewey is practically carried by his profile to this spot on the list. Sure, Trethewey’s elevator pitch as a 6’2 right-handed D that plays a two-way game sounds nice, but I find it oversells the impact Trethewey is really having on the games he’s playing. He’s generally quite frustrating. There’s definitely an intelligent defender here, but he’s not using his strengths effectively. He’s got a good mind for finding passing lanes, but in the offensive zone he tends to just fire shots. He’s a fine defender tactically, but he panics so easily. He’s a good skater if he can get his wheels going, and he does find success in transition, but he could be using it more! I had called him the “NTDP’s defensive crown jewel” during my mid-season update, and honestly it looks like he’s been dethroned from there as well. Asher Barnett and Drew Schock both left far more noticeable impressions down the stretch, including on the U18s. I find it is getting harder and harder to keep him above the list of players that have shown me more. I want to see Trethewey get more assertive and find more ways to get engaged on the ice than I have seen this season if I am to change my tune.

Despite all of that, Trethewey is one of the better defensemen in this class by virtue of an undying commitment to zero-sum hockey. Nothing happens with Trethewey on the ice, for better or worse, but there’s definitely potential for a guy that can do stuff. Sometimes? Is that enough for a top 4 role in the NHL? Maybe, especially if he’s not done growing! The profile is just too good for an NHL team to not want to make something here. The foundations are totally fine, and given enough time with an NHL training staff, there’s no reason to believe Trethewey can’t become a run-of-the-mill defender. For this year, that’s good enough.

74) Aron Dahlqvist - LD - Brynäs IF J20 (J20 Nationell, Sweden)

Of the giant, smooth-skating defenders that this class has to offer, I believe Aron Dahlqvist is probably the closest to playing a pro role. A lot of that is thanks to the profile he’s working with; it’s going to be really tough for NHL teams to ignore a 6’4, 200 lb. defenseman that’s already worked in some pro reps this year.

Not hard to see why he’s earned those pro reps either; Dahlqvist brings an aggressive approach to the stay-at-home style that really draws attention. He’s not scared to assist forwards in the OZ by getting low or using his wheels to skate the puck into an exit. There’s the occasional booming cross-ice breakout pass as well. That aggression is also existent in his defensive game, where he can lay out serious punishment as well as be a pest to skate around due to his size and mobility. The foundations for a bottom pair or depth option that gets PK minutes are all present, and there’s just enough oomph in his game to get me believing that he could be more if things break right.

But the cost of aggression, in Dahlqvist’s case, comes in unforced errors. I know I just spent a good while talking about how good he is at being aggressive with the puck, and those things hold true when they work. Still, Dahlqvist has a long way to go before being able to create those plays at a pro level. His hands are his big point of weakness; he struggles to control the puck under pressure, and while that doesn’t hurt his ability to break the puck out, it does make him a constant victim of forwards getting second efforts. His passing game is also wildly inconsistent, ranging from hitting passes through multiple layers to completely whiffing on open targets. I really want to see Dahlqvist use his skating to close gaps more often; he’s just too frequently giving forwards space, especially off the rush.

Despite the legwork that has to happen, I still think Dahlqvist has shown enough of the positives that I am a little more willing to overlook how raw the total package is. I think him being in the Brynäs system will greatly help that, as they have been on a roll for developing players out of this age group. I remain cautiously optimistic that with the right system and the right crew working with him, there can be a very useful player here.

75) Owen Martin - F - Spokane Chiefs (WHL)

I have such a deep appreciation for how Owen Martin plays the game. He adapts to play so well, wears all the possible hats, and strings together possessions so efficiently. He feels like one of those players that, as a coach, I would love to have on the ice the full 60 minutes. The chemistry he has with 2026 top prospect Mathys Preston cannot be ignored. While Preston is the master weaver, using his creativity and speed to blow through defensive lines, Martin is there doing all the little things to make Preston’s ideas work. Going to the net, making the extra pass, pulling defenders, and doubling up on the forecheck, Martin does it all while also being his line’s defensive conscience.

With a trajectory this positive, it’s hard to not be optimistic when it comes to projecting Martin to higher levels. Still, I do think that Martin can stand to do more independently; he’s plenty skilled, but he’s not super involved in the transition. Particularly on exits, where he can occasionally tunnel into finding teammates to move the puck out of the zone. I also believe there’s a lot Martin has to learn in how he approaches the physical side of the game; it’s his Achilles heel at the moment. He’s not a heavy player, but he tends to rely on pivots and footwork to get himself out of trouble. I think as he gets bigger there will be room to add some more proactive contact in his game, make him a more engaged battler along the wall.

There’s a lot of work ahead of Martin if he wants to make it as a full-time NHLer; these Swiss-army knife players don’t often work without a specialty to offer. Martin still has to find that identity, although I do think what he’s shown as a complimentary two-way forward is promising and could land him a top 9 role someday. If nothing else, few players have piqued my interest like Martin has this year; I am going to be rooting for him.

76) Viktor Klingsell - LW - Skellefteå AIK J20 (J20 Nationell, Sweden)

Klingsell has fallen a long way from the hype he started the season with, but he’s gotta be one of the more entertaining all the same. This guy just generates breakaways like nobody’s business. Spatial awareness and anticipation are the name of his game, but he’s got the speed to take advantage of those opportunities and blow past defenders at this level with relative ease. Even away from those individual chances, Klingsell reads his lanes well and is a respectable puck carrier and forechecker that can change direction remarkably quickly to throw defenders off. Great strengths to have, and alone can be worthy of serious top 64 consideration if you really value these skills highly enough.

Personally, it’s the lack of a fallback game that concerns my projection with Klingsell. For all the things he can do with his legs, Klingsell’s hands struggle to keep up at times. His top hand seems locked to the top of his stick, and he attempts to compensate with these full-body movements that never really work. Generally, when Klingsell breaks off of that individually focused style of his, he tends to lean more as a complimentary playmaker. I just don’t really feel like that’s his strength, though, despite Klingsell being totally capable of playing that way. It’s just been something that’s seemed harder to come across in his international games, where Klingsell leaned more into that high-pace, do-it-yourself type pressure pusher role.

Klingsell hasn’t really shown enough to really bolster confidence that his game is pro-projectable as more than a bottom-six forward at the moment, and considering his below-average size and lack of physicality, that’s not going to be a combination that’s conducive to NHL upside. To make the NHL, I imagine Klingsell would have to fit a role similar to a Paul Byron, but that’s just not his style. Klingsell lacks the defensive engagement, doggedness, and finishing ability that a player like Byron brought to the table. Maybe an NHL team feels like they can get him there, though?

77) Lev Katzin - F - Guelph Storm (OHL)

Katzin, thanks to landing in Guelph scorching hot, has had a degree of hype that I didn’t really get behind at the start. It just became increasingly obvious, to the point that I could deny it no longer. He is small.

That said, there’s a reason Katzin’s found success: He’s so unbelievably annoying to play against. Katzin’s motor consistently runs the hottest of anyone on the ice, and he takes no shifts off at either end. The speed and acceleration Katzin generates is booming and demands opponents attention. You cannot be caught sleeping, or Katzin will get under you and get a chance out of it. This is especially noticeable when forechecking; Katzin always seems to get an extra stride in than what a defender expects and can cause them to move the puck in a panic. There’s even more of that value in the defensive zone; Katzin backchecks at every opportunity and closes in-zone gaps remarkably. The effort he puts in is impossible to ignore.

Can Katzin realistically achieve NHL upside despite his size? Maybe. There’s definite value in a 200-ft player of this style who finds soft ice as consistently as he does. I think he’s also made great progress at protecting himself and playing in those dirty areas down low. Although I don’t feel Katzin is a strong bet to be a top 6 forward, I can easily see him being a player you want to run in your bottom six. Even if the offensive game doesn’t develop further, the habits are strong enough to get him somewhere, and he can still turn out as a Blake Lizotte-type player. I find that despite his placement on this list, he’s still one of the “safer” small players in this class. If Katzin can add a strong offensive element (I’d say his finishing ability can improve) and continue developing that pesky side of his to handle bigger challenges, I can see a useful NHL player here.

78) Luca Romano - C - Kitchener Rangers (OHL)

Oh, Luca Romano, how I mourn thee. Another undersized center that plays the game so well. Lots of soft skills, great hands, finesse, high IQ, super creative, tons of fun. I love guys that play the game the way Romano does. But his story is not an uncommon one. As much good as there is, making the top 6 on an NHL team is tough, and I don’t think Romano has enough gas in the tank to get there. His smaller frame also makes him a really hard fit to see in a team’s bottom six.

The cracks in the armor have already begun to show. Romano really struggled during the Rangers playoff series against Windsor and had no answer for the big, wide forwards that the team carried. He was demoted to the 3rd line and was forced into an energy role so he could try and spark something with his playmaking, but things tended to not go in his direction. If Romano is struggling against guys bigger than him now, it’s even harder to see how he’s going to make an impact at higher levels when those bigger guys get even more violent.

Still, I have a soft spot for him. I want Romano to work; I want him to prove everyone wrong. I just need him to do some more convincing.

79) Kieren Dervin - F - Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)

“WHO?!” is right. Dervin was quite literally the last player I visited this year. Considering a commitment issue handcuffed him to St. Andrew’s College most of the year, it’s easy to understand why. I still came out of every viewing impressed. Dervin looks the part of a great shutdown bottom-six forward. His hands are his best tool, and he’s shown his ability to dangle his way into the offensive zone with remarkable efficiency for someone with just 10 OHL games under their belt. The east-west movement was also very welcome in a draft filled with straight shooters. That said, Dervin’s game was a bit up/down. I thought the stint he had towards the start of the year was more indicative of his ability than what we saw towards the end. I don’t think he was given the opportunity to gel with a Kingston team that was loaded up for the playoffs.

I don’t know how one would go about assessing a player like this, but the tools and brain are definitely enough to give belief to the idea that there was a much better player than was shown. Central Scouting does have him as 71st in NA, so I guess the pro outlook on him is positive? It’s hard to be confident about anyone with this small a sample, but it’s also hard to be confident with much of anyone this year. So sure, Dervin can be on my list. Why not?

80) LJ Mooney - F - U18 USNTDP

All 3 of the sub-5’9 dynamos are really testing my ability to be risk-tolerant, but none have been more challenging to manage than Mooney. He’s just so good. Insanely strong skater with booming edgework and dynamic straight-line speed to constantly place himself wherever play demands him. Mix that in with his lightspeed hands, and he sets off fireworks in his opponents legs on the regular. A fantastic offensive mind that seems mechanically geared to create offense. and with the dog to use everything and anything all the time. He’s just so refined too; he doesn’t cheat, he uses the middle, he blocks shots, and he throws the body (and pretty damn well too). It would honestly be easier to list the stuff Mooney doesn’t do well because they would all generally revolve around playing against the wall, but even then he’s able to win a % of those battles and handle his own. He’s never an easy out.

But goddamn, can he stop exploding? I would be so much more confident in Mooney if that knee injury at the start of the year and the one he suffered in the final game at the U18s never happened. Now I just don’t know. Can Mooney play his game, as good as it is, without dying? How much punishment can his lower body take without compromising his speed? There’s so much up in the air, and we are going to have to wait until after the draft to see what Mooney looks like with this new one he just picked up.

There’s a plethora of risk here, and it’s enough to keep him off my top 64, but I sure hope he figures it out. He was in my 2nd round, even my 1st for a good long while; I can’t really blame anyone that could not live with themselves were they to pass up on him. There’s no player like LJ Mooney out there right now, and a ton of his value comes from his play on the puck. But I can be made to believe in the rate at which Mooney executes good stuff. He will need to be practically flawless to be an NHL player, and that might just be a bar too high.

81) Adam Benák - F - Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)

Of the class of little guys we have this year, Benak is the one that I find hardest to rank. He’s so so so so smart and so so so so pacey while also being an immaculate distributor; I really wanted to get on the wagon and watch him work. His play at the Hlinka both this year and the year before was the stuff of legend, constantly entertaining me with his amazing passing ability and defensive awareness. Despite the size, the physical tools were present, and he was constantly able to make plays both on and off-puck when they got to the walls. I seriously believed at the time that if Benák was 6’1, 190, he would be in contention for the first overall pick.

My tune has soured over the course of the season, and I think that, of the smaller players to bet on, Benák did the least to earn my confidence. Despite his high work rate, Benák doesn’t really have breakneck speed and is easily stoppable if you get to him before he revs up his engine. The transition to the USHL also poked some holes into my perception of him. His transition play really struggled on smaller ice, and he was often forced to move the puck quicker than he wanted to, leading to some very poor passes and decision-making. It really showcased that, despite his work rate, Benák wasn’t that fast a skater and wasn’t covering the ice like I first imagined, something the more high-up camera in the Youngstown rink didn’t mask. Generally, Benák’s game never really acclimated to the faster, more demanding confines of 5v5 play down the middle and was placed on the wing as a result, which changed the way I saw him again. His shot is weak, and the passes can still be hit-or-miss, but he definitely found more ways to consistently get to the zone and make a first pass, which led to pucks going in the net. It’s a role that fit Benák better but also one that had grown my worries. If Benák is already being forced to heavily change his game, what does that really say about his chances when the physical intensity really ramps up at the pro level? Sure, he’s one of the more seasoned pros in this draft after his D-1 campaign back home, but even the U18s had Benák struggling to build the plays he envisioned.

As far as YOLO swings go, I don’t think there’s much better you can do than Benák this season. The creativity, intensity, and playmaking ability should at the very least result in a fun and interesting prospect. He’s not one that I am running to the podium to draft until the later rounds, though, and I think he stands a chance at being overlooked entirely. Maybe I am overcorrecting, and Benák does actually have a shot as a top-6 complimentary playmaker? I just can’t wrap my head around the vision, and he’s fallen off hard as a result.

82) Jimmy Lombardi - F - Flint Firebirds (OHL)

On a team where play tends to collapse a lot, Lombardi needs to be seriously commended for making sure his opponents felt the same stress. He’s a pesty ball of energy, bringing pace, mobility, and great on-the-fly thinking to what is generally a very chaotic environment. The mileage Lombardi gets out of that naturally opportunistic game can vary. When play does slow down, Lombardi is constantly trying to set fires, for better or worse. Lombardi’s overextending and constant pressure can net some chances that only he can provide, but they can also burn him if the defender is capable of moving the puck before Lombardi closes the gap.

I often come out of viewings with Lombardi simultaneously impressed and concerned, because there is more here. Lombardi’s a very effective transition player and is largely responsible for Flint’s breakouts. He can be a great supporting center as well, taking control of the net-front and playing around his defensemen with great frequency. It just doesn’t feel like this is Lombardi’s natural game. The parts of Lombardi that do stand out—his mobility, his forechecking, and his straight-line speed—all seem to point to a player that I think maybe fits on a bottom-six wing. Maybe he’s just miscast in his current role?

Either way, I think getting Lombardi to play to his strengths will allow him to reinforce his upside and work on ways to make his offense more translatable. Showing more gas on the rush, better execution of his creative playmaking solutions, and more ratting it up in dirty areas, Lombardi could be a very interesting prospect down the line.

Tier 9 - We Ball.

83) Kristian Epperson - W - Saginaw Spirit (OHL)

Despite coming off of a very disappointing DY season with the NTDP, I can’t say I am totally surprised that someone of Epperson’s ability found himself revitalized by his time in Saginaw. Epperson’s motor has always been good, as havehis overall skill level and forechecking ability. It’s not an uncommon sight, this year or last, for Epperson to close space on defenders faster than they anticipate and immediately make a quick move or play to spark offense for himself or teammates. He’s a monster in the neutral zone and can at times be a one-man transition machine. There’s plenty to like here if you’re looking for that pesky, annoying 3rd-line winger, and that is definitely enough to get Epperson on most people’s rankings.

But I find myself believing that Epperson just isn’t all that different from the player I saw last year. Sure, he’s compounded on his strengths; he’s faster, stronger, more involved, and so on, but the weaknesses that kept me sour on him last year are still present. Epperson still gets into penalty trouble due to poor stick discipline (seriously, he gets away with a lot, a notorious slasher). He’s still quite clumsy; quite a few bobbled pucks and moments where he was just too impatient in skating up that he’d forget to take the puck with him. He’s light on his skates but still really likes going to the wall, which has seen him be on the receiving end of quite a few violent hits. A problem I find symptomatic of Epperson’s underdeveloped physical tools. I find Epperson still lacks an identity when it comes to in-zone play, not really exemplary as either a distributor or a finisher. It’s not like he hasn’t benefited from playing next to Michael Misa all season too. He’s almost certainly going to get picked, and there’s definitely stuff to work on. I just can’t get over the mental hurdles required to rank him too high, but there was a half-decent player here last year, and there’s a half-decent player here now. Give him a shot! Why not?

84) David Lewandowski - F - Saskatoon Blades (WHL)

The conversation I’ve been hearing around Lewandowski has been quite reminiscent of how I viewed Maxim Massé last year. Not the best skater, but he makes up for it with some good hockey sense, physicality, and just enough interesting moments to hold your attention. It’s a simple style, and it’s going to make you a highlight reel player, but it has value. I really want to hone in on Lewandowski’s physical tools, as the potential is sky-high. He’s showcased great balance and rolls off hits exceptionally; I have never seen him pushed off the puck. If his dad, a former Coyotes draft pick, is anything to go off of, there’s room to grow, which is sure to be a tantalizing prospect to the right crowd.

Detail will be what development teams are looking to inject into Lewandowski, and there’s a lot of work to be done, not because Lewandowski lacks ability but because he has so much going on. He doesn’t scan the ice but does have some really good playmaking vision, particularly off the rush, where he exhibits both deception and patience to exploit defenders gaps. A little paradoxically, as Lewandowski’s skating is really weak. He’s able to get by at the WHL level thanks to his hands. It’s not uncommon to see Lewandowski push the puck from his feet to the outside, bulldoze through a hit, and make a play to move the puck immediately after.

I could go on; Lewandowski is raw, it’s known. With the amount of development that needs to come from him to work out in the NHL, it’s really hard to be too confident in him, but there’s definitely stuff to work with. He’s at the least, no less risky than any other player in this range. If at least he gains some foot speed, agility, and ability to play in motion and some scanning habits, maybe he works out as a checking forward. That list isn’t too long, right?

85) Alex Huang - RD - Chicotoumi Saguenéens (QMJHL)

One of a few preseason 1st rounder hopefuls to slide as the year went on, Huang was just never a player that I was ever really sold on. I just can’t seem to spot his niche. Huang’s entire game relies upon his skating, and he loves to apply it in the neutral zone. He’s one of the best offensive transition defensemen in the CHL, landing JUST outside the top 10 in controlled entries across all CHL leagues (2 short of tying Henry Mews’s #10 spot). Huang also defends in motion remarkably well. While his gap management is a work in progress, his mobility and stick checking make him someone to monitor even if you get past him. If you value his strengths enough, there’s plenty of reason to justify him as a selection somewhere in the early rounds.

The issue I have with Huang is an uncertainty in how he adapts to higher levels going forward. He’s got a lot of room to grow physically and will need to do so if he hopes to handle the bigger, tougher competition coming his way. Furthermore, he really didn’t take that next offensive step that I expected him to have and looked rather pedestrian in the offensive end. His play against tougher competition at the U18s didn’t do much to assuage fears. I have to wonder: Is Huang truly able to make the NHL wired the way he is? Maybe the details might just be enough, and Huang figuring it out wouldn’t be the biggest surprise that can come out of this year. I think he’s set to really benefit from his time at Harvard, which has churned out a good handful of defensemen that played in the same vein. Maybe there’s something here yet?

86) Tomas Galvas - LD - Bili Tygri Liberec (Czechia)

Not much is out there to change my mind from the high spot I had Galvas in last year. Still a great puck-mover with strong footwork and a load of confidence while carrying the puck. He’s gotten much better at avoiding calling his number and solves problems a lot more efficiently.

The most notable improvements have been to his game off the puck. He was a star for the Czech squad at the World Juniors and was highly implicated in the ruining of Canada’s tournament. He was on Gavin McKenna duty and did not disappoint, often getting on the inside of the Canadian star and starting quick counterattacks as a result. One of these even directly led to the first and third Czech goals.

Not much has changed from this year to last, and he was by far the player I was most bummed to see go unselected. If he doesn’t go this year, I suppose he will be due for a highly productive career in Europe. I just have to believe that there’s enough to bet on here. Surely, there’s an Erik Gustafsson or a strong AHL defender here, at least. But he wouldn’t be the first of his type to be overlooked.

87) Ethan Wyttenbach - LW - Sioux Falls Stampede (USHL)

Wyttenbach is a player that came out of nowhere. Having played his entire D-1 in 16AAA, it would’ve been totally understandable if he needed a season to acclimate; hell, even holding down a roster spot would’ve been impressive. Wyttenbach blew WAY past all expectations, earning his role as the main driver of the Stampede’s offense. A lower body injury cost him the team lead in scoring, but his pace is still firmly in the top 10 league-wide.

Watching Wyttenbach, it’s little surprise to see why he’s been so successful. He’s definitely an intelligent playmaker; he sees the ice better than most in the USHL and was able to find attempts in the slot quickly with decent success. His quick passing game is generally quite good, and he’s able to spring a lot of transitions off of that skill, which, although it doesn’t lead to direct involvement, does elevate his contribution. When he does have the puck, Wyttenbach has regularly displayed really good balance and finesse while flashing some strong handling to match. He’s much harder to push off the puck than his frame might suggest.

Despite all of the good in his offensive game, I do think Wyttenbach has overachieved his skill level a tad. He tends to be a bit careless when moving the puck, often materializing in high-risk/low-reward plays to the middle of the ice that opposing players should be able to turn over with ease. In my viewings, Wyttenbach has not gotten burned as much as he has deserved. Sometimes, contestable pucks are just inches out of defenders reach, and blindpasses will miss their intended target and find another teammate instead. It’s not sustainable behavior and something I expect to be polished out as he rises through the ranks.

Still, this is only one of the hurdles Wyttenbach has to overcome. His skating ability isn’t particularly strong; he really struggles to generate speed and has not won a ton of races in my viewings; defenders collapse on him way too easily. Despite trying to push play to the middle, he tends to hang around the perimeter a lot. Shot selection can be better. Physical play needs to come. The painted picture is that of a very raw, very junior player.

For now, that’s fine. Like I said to start, Wyttenbach’s body of work is very impressive considering his circumstances, but time isn’t going to wait for him. Even if everything works out, I still don’t imagine he holds much more than top-9 upside, and considering his physical frame and style of play, that is going to be a tough spot to earn; a lot of things need to break right. I can see NHL teams passing up on him for another year if the confidence isn’t there, but I just don’t believe there are many options that would prove more interesting.

88) Everett Baldwin - RD - St. George’s School (USHS-Prep)

Any conversation about Everett Baldwin starts with his skating. It is REALLY good. If it weren’t for Baldwin spawning and becoming one of the smoothest skating defenders in this class, I don’t think he’d ever have been given the opportunities or attention he’s received this year. It’s a true defining skill, and Baldwin uses it to play super tight gaps and jump in on the rush and cover his own pinches and dart to chase pucks; there’s pretty never a play outside of Baldwin’s reach. He brings that skill to the defensive side of things as well. Even if he’s a bit lacking physically, he engages forwards and just constantly takes away space and sticks to make those 1v1 battles nightmarish for forwards that can’t overpower him. If this is all Baldwin brings to the next level, he can easily land himself a depth position on an NHL team with this alone.

If only Baldwin had more time to acclimate to higher competition, I might feel good enough to rank him in my 2nd round. There have been undeniable “???” moments in Baldwin’s time with the NTDP that really show how raw he is. Spatial awareness has been a constant point of trouble for Baldwin. He has a poor map of the ice and struggles to play the game off of what is around him. Bumping into teammates, skating into closed lanes, and passing into coverage were all errors, forced or not, that were constants in my viewings. He’s also a little immature with how he handles rush attackers. Definitely a little bit of “hit-stick defending” to be seen in showings later in the year.

As much as I would like to throw caution to the wind, I feel like we really don’t know what Everett Baldwin is yet, and picking an undersized defenseman with all these uncertainties and a suspect puck-moving game doesn’t feel like a formula for success. There’s enough here for me to bet on Baldwin but not enough for me to get overly excited and hop on the wagon. At least not yet. His first full season in the USHL will certainly be illuminating, and I can see Baldwin really rewarding a team that had the boldness to take the plunge on him.

89) Conrad Fondrk - F - U18 USNTDP

Another NTDP darling that I found really disappointing this year. Fondrk was a classic skate-and-shoot player this year, but he’s a pretty damn good one. His ability to keep his hands and feet moving at high speeds gave him a bit of flash that helped him stand out on an NTDP team desperate for some. His shot is definitely a weapon at this stage, and he brings a real weapon in his one-timer as well. It’s not surprising that he’s able to find the back of the net with some decent regularity. A lot of Fondrk’s upside holds as a finisher.

But it’s become increasingly challenging to place Fondrk over his peers. He’s really only got that one dimension, and outside of it, he did not display strong enough engagement or even a desire to challenge opposing defenders away from the puck. Fondrk’s in-zone play was generally quite poor,as he struggled to kick-start or even contribute to any exit that didn’t involve the puck on his stick. He’s very light on the puck too.

Fondrk, I think, just doesn’t have the gas in the tank to get away with this style of play. It’s a high bar to meet, and it’s one that’s only going to get more challenging with time. If he doesn’t make serious adjustments, I imagine the NCAA will present itself as a significant roadblock, never mind the pros. Still, there are few players that bring the scoring ability Fondrk does in this class, and that’s going to get him on this list.

90) Phillipe Veilleux - LW - Val D’Or Foreurs (QMJHL)

Veilleux is one of the best play-driving forwards in the Q and has all the offensive brain and soft skills to match. He’s a triple threat with the puck on his stick; his skating, playmaking and finishing are all really strong. He’s without a doubt one of the most talented players the Q has produced in recent history. His habits are good too, instilling deception and creativity in his plays through delays or quick plays. What brings it all together is the speed at which all of this comes out. His overwhelming pace just creates lanes that are inaccessible for other players, and Veilleux punishes those gaps with extreme prejudice, especially on entries where he can exploit some of the Q’s poorer defenders. It really is no surprise that a player this offensively capable finished 3rd in QMJHL scoring.

The major problem with Veilleux comes with projecting his game to higher levels. He’s small (5’9) and plays small. He’ll occasionally slide parallel to the boards to collect a loose puck, but outside of that, he is a total pacifist. He can engage in contact but never, ever, ever initiates it, challenging his opponents to make a play. Anything that would denote an edge to his game. I could talk about how much he creates through the perimeter and how he can leave me wanting more hustle away from the puck, but honestly none of it matters. He has not shown enough to facilitate the idea that he can handle the physical side of the game, and that’s a death sentence. If it weren’t for the work of Nathan Brisson to constantly make up for Veilleux’s weakness, I think optics on him would’ve been poor enough that I wouldn’t consider him at all.

Veilleux is a junior scorer through and through. He’s not the first or the last player to have this issue, and if he wants to go pro, he will absolutely need to change the way he plays. Who knows if what he has is even good enough outside the QMJHL? If he were in the W or the O, would Veilleux be able to score with as much ease as he currently does? I am not too sure. There are so many angles in which Veilleux doesn’t work, but the upside is still tangible enough that I think he warrants a spot somewhere in this range. He will probably go lower than this, and rightly so, but sometimes you have to throw shit at the wall. Maybe you get a top 6 scoring winger? Maybe.

91) Nicholas Sykora - RW - Sioux City Musketeers (USHL)

As far as late-round options for talent go, I think Sykora is one of the better bets to make. His entire game revolves around his shot and what must be done to get it off. It’s definitely a worthwhile skill to build around. Sykora’s constantly able to get significant power out of any number of what would be awkward positions for most players. His strong handling ability injects deception into Sykora’s release, usually by means of switching up his angles or adding delays. Has a heater of a one-timer too. There’s definitely enough here to envision Sykora as an NHL-level finisher.

But what makes Sykora a potential NHL player is how he processes the game. He anticipates the game very well, dodging physical challenges and slipping through defensive lines while carrying the puck by reading his defenders. He tries to shift defensive gaps before his passes and times them beautifully once he finds his lane.

There’s a lot to work on before Sykora can reach that height, most notably, his pace of game. It’s wildly inconsistent. Sometimes, Sykora is flying through the ice, engaging physically, creating turnovers, and applying pressure. At other times, it’s totally invisible, and he seems slow and lax. For Sykora, to take advantage of the toolkit he has, this is a point in his game that he can’t afford to be without. As a team drafting him, you would really hope to see major development in this area in the coming years. I really want to see him be a player that takes advantage of his strengths in motion. He gets away with it now because he’s a good enough skater to get away with not planning things out all the way, but I don’t believe higher ranks will give him that luxury.

Even outside of that, a lot of junior habits plague Sykora. He doesn’t scan the ice, often playing improvisational hockey. While he does have good habits in his passing game, Sykora is not very accurate in actually getting the pass to his teammates sticks. He can shy away from contact. He plays a very variant game shift to shift.

There’s a lot of work to be done, but a patient team might be rewarded with a valuable depth scorer. Guys of this type tend to find ways to stick around in the NHL. You can do worse!

92) Carson Cameron - RD - Peterborough Petes (OHL)

Full disclosure. Carson Cameron is here because I like him.

Peterborough was a woeful, pitiful team this year. The worst offensive team in the OHL by a mile and one of the worst defensive teams as well. Nothing worked from start to finish. Despite all of that, Cameron was consistently the most engaged player in all of the games of him I viewed. He battled in every corner, pushed every offensive advantage to the limit he could regardless of if it would burn him or not, and just played solid, clean defensive hockey all season. His skating enabled all of it; he’s super fluid and constantly hustled. If there’s an NHL player here, it’s going to be by virtue of Cameron being a strong, smooth skating shutdown 5/6 defender. Is that enough to warrant a 3rd round pick? Who cares? Cameron left it all on the ice, balled out every second he had, and constantly just won me over with his effort regardless of if play went his direction or not. I hope he finds nothing but success going forward, and I would definitely dare to take him in this range even if he’s sort of a mystery box.

93) William Belle - LW - U18 USNTDP

Belle initially stood out for me thanks to the impressive straight-line speed that was attached to his hulking body. He uses it often and was charging into dirty areas all year. Sometimes being massive, engaged, and mobile is just enough to warrant a selection, but Belle brought some skill too. There’s some work in those hands, and when he kept playing in front of him, he was great at making defenders lives miserable. He’s just so athletic and was so dominant in space that I imagine there’s a worthy pick somewhere on the board here.

Unfortunately, Belle’s flashes were few and far between. That straight-line speed was largely used as a tool to chase icings. I just fear Belle’s hockey IQ never caught up to the tools he brought to the table. He was far too liberal with the puck and would rarely glue everything together. The times he did manage to make something, it was rarely anything projectable.

I still think there’s a good buy-low candidate here, and maybe someone who can find success as next year’s Kristian Epperson, but there’s a long way to go. Still, you can’t fault anyone for betting on the profile and the effectiveness of his tools. I just wanted to see more of it. He's always had a long developmental road, so some lenience is in order.

94) Tommy Lafrenière - C - Kamloops Blazers (WHL)

Everything Lafrenière gets on the ice is the result of his own hard work. He’s a dog’s dog through and through, hounding loose pucks and harassing defenders, and despite his size, he brings some really good physical tools to the table as well. He puts his body between opponents and the puck and has the IQ to find quick options to move the puck. Love his commitment to battling hard away from the puck too; it’s impossible to escape a viewing of Lafrenière without remarking how willing he is to get involved on the forecheck and/or backcheck.

I would definitely have him ranked higher if I were able to see an NHL job for him. While the profile fits a job on an NHL bottom-six, Lafrenière doesn’t have the physical traits to play that game at the moment. His skating is just average despite his high-energy game; adding some explosiveness will probably be his point of focus. I’m unsure what Lafrenière profiles as offensively either; he generates good shooting attempts, but his shot is okay, and his passing game generally is a bit more appealing, but he doesn’t get rewarded for it a whole lot on this rebuilding Blazers team.

By my own admission, Lafrenière is a bit of a long shot in the NHL context. I still think that a mid-round selection given the context of the draft is appropriate, but I don’t think he’d be someone that catches eyes most any other year. I’m still rooting for him though and hope he finds that next level.

95) Lucas Beckman - G - Baie-Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL)

If I were a bolder man, I would say Beckman might is the best Canadian goalie in this draft at the time of selection. I find he serves as a differential to a lot of the goalies in this draft because he has a strength that a lot of them lack: rebound control. In my viewings, he’s been really good at both smothering loose pucks and kicking pucks out to the boards. Sounds strange, but I feel Beckman controls himself quite well in the crease. Combined with his sharp laterals, Beckman is one of the better goalies at ensuring chances don’t develop past the initial shot. I think that will find a niche in some scouts.

The rest like with most goalies is a matter of projection. Beckman is considerably young for the class and seems to have more room to grow, I doubt he stops at 6’2. He tends to get low a bit too quickly and has trouble tracking the puck when he gets into his butterfly. He’s just not as mechanically or athletically gifted as some of his peers, but I do think he’s done enough to warrant some consideration. I was really impressed by his play in the QMJHL playoffs despite the amount of goals that got past him. Maybe I just like cut of his jib.

96) Reese Hamilton - LD - Regina Pats (WHL)

Reese Hamilton, for better and worse, is insanely important to this Regina Pats team. It was usually for the worse; it’s no secret that this Pats team struggled immensely, and Hamilton, for his part, was not without his own. His campaign started difficult in Calgary, and going to Regina seemed to compound them. But none of that really matters.

The value Hamilton provides is almost totally related to his skating. He is pound-for-pound one of the most mobile defenders in the class, and he shows it off consistently. Charging in on entries to establish possession or preventing entries with his reach and mobility to kill gaps. There’s a lot to love in an open-ice defender like this, and that may just be enough to get Hamilton consideration as a depth defender. He’s got some offensive panache too and can occasionally make the high-end stretch pass to catch opponents off guard.

I am just concerned there may be too many hurdles to overcome. Hamilton can tunnel vision really hard. He takes a lot of unnecessary risksand doesn’t have the skill to pull it off. A lot of defensive concerns in his own end, tons of turnovers, poor reads. Maybe Regina is just letting him play, but I would like to see more of him even as just a plug-and-play defender. Is this even a guy that I would trust as a #7? I don’t really know, but if I do, it’s because of the skating. Trust the skating, trust his ability to play in open ice, and pray the rest comes along.

Guys I have stuff to say about but didn’t rank

Caleb Matthews - F - Victoria Royals (WHL)

This might seriously be the only place you find Caleb Matthews on someone’s personal list, so I am going to lay the glaze heavy.

Matthews is THE most underrated player I have seen this year. Remarkably intelligent, as showcased by some fantastic showcases of spatial awareness. He’s a hound on a loose puck and can really be tough to shake off if unchecked. I love watching him in possession battles, showing off his hands, constantly earning himself second efforts, and finding ways to instantly react to pressure around him. Matthews’ resourcefulness is also shown in these moments where he’ll take advantage of teammates routes or use the walls to push play forward. Comes with a decent profile too. I just love this dude’s style. He was a huge part of the Victoria Royals bottom six, and despite the 2nd round loss to powerhouse Spokane, he promises to be an important part of their team if they are to reach WHL contender status. The skill, intelligence, and motor are all here, and I feel a breakout is inevitable. If he can play at the pace that the pro scene will demand of him, I can easily see an NHL bottom-six forward here. I feel like he’ll show us a clearer picture of what he’s capable of next year, as a role has more certainly opened up for him with Cole Reschny’s departure.

Carter Klippenstein - LW - Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

Klippenstein didn’t wow me at many points this season with this skill level, but he’s a big body that competes really hard. There’s an NHL draft pick here for sure, maybe even a decently high one. I’ll admit I didn’t get the number of viewings in him that I may have liked and I can see myself regretting this.

Cole Temple - F - Everett Silvertips (WHL)

Another player that’s stuck out to me for this work ethic. Temple constantly burst through the page when watching Everett this season and looked remarkably strong at center. He’s a strong forechecker, a solid elusive skater, and a good passer. I don’t know if he’s got enough gas in the tank to be an everyday NHLer; the lack of size and the “eh” defensive results speak to that, but I like him and think he’s got a shot.

Cooper Simpson - LW - Shakopee High (USHS-MN)

When I got to this spot on my list, I almost dreaded having to write anything about Cooper Simpson. I came into this season believing Simpson would force his way into the teens, maybe even the top 10. The player I saw next to Trevor Connelly at Tri-City was a DEMON. Natural finishing out the wazoo, a cannon of a shot that brought delays and angle changes and all the deception you can ask for. Insanely good at reading defenders, handling them in their triangles, and shifting pucks through the tightest of gaps. Remarkably tenacious, and despite never being the fastest skater, he had such good posture and balance that he was seriously hard to shake. All of it was fueled by Simpson’s motor. His engagement and effort are what won me over. It wasn’t always present, but when it was, Simpson was a nigh-untouchable play driver. I was so confident that after a year in the USHL, Simpson would define himself as one of the best players in this year’s draft.

Needless to say, his return to Shakopee didn’t facilitate that dream. I saw Simpson slowly cave into poor habits. The pace he played with was gone because he didn’t need it. He wasn’t physical because he didn’t have to be. Simpson seemed to be content regressing into another low-pace, fire-from-the-circles finisher. Even after his campaign ended and he headed back to Tri-City, the oomph in his game was gone and the poor habits still remained. Except this time, he was getting routinely exploited for it. Simpson was totally left behind by the USHL speed; he was a victim for any defender with the range to cover him, and he really struggled to contribute offensively.

After a couple of games, Simpson slowly started to readjust to the USHL pace and found ways to get involved more frequently. Dropping 7 goals in 9 games doesn’t just happen spontaneously, but it’s just not the same. Maybe the reverence that I held Simpson in has just faded. I still think that Simpson, if placed on the right trajectory and IF he can keep his engagement level high, will be an effective top 9 NHL scorer. But it’s a tough sell. I can’t imagine he makes NDak’s team in his current state and is likely bound for a full campaign in the USHL before anything else. I believe finding some consistency in his game is going to be crucial going forward. Even if Simpson is more of a complementary piece at this point, going back to what got Simpson the attention to begin with will be key to his NHL hopes. I’d need to be confident that Simpson wants that badly enough before I place my own hopes too high.

David Bedkowski - RD - Owen Sound Attack (OHL)

While definitely one of the more violent players in this class, Bedkowski consistently frustrated me with his hit-stick defending. So many times, Bedkowski could’ve easily just broken up a play with his reach, and he just didn’t. I didn’t really see enough to win me over with the puck either; turnovers galore there. I do think there’s room to build on here, but I find him significantly less polished than the Sean Barhills, Carter Amicos, and Danill Skvortsovs of the year.

Edison Engle - LD - Dubuque Fighting Saints (USHL)

A last-second cut that has actually seen a lot of progress throughout the year. Always the defensive stalwart, Engle’s lack of ability with the puck soured my taste for him with a poor Hlinka, but he’s definitely seen massive strides in his USHL campaign. He’s physical and always leads with his stick, which I greatly appreciate. Brings a fluid stride, brings a good, honest mindset to the offensive end. There are times that he struggled to handle some of the more pacey players in the USHL, but with some better backwards mobility, I can see a 5/6 NHL guy here. He’s right in the bubble.

Ethan Czata - C - Niagara IceDogs (OHL)

Czata is probably the safest bet to be a 4C this draft has to offer. He’s got the frame, mindset, and desire to play that shutdown role too. He’s got a wicked shot, and he was a key contributor in Niagara’s early season hot streak. Czata got hot himself around mid-season, getting me to perk my ears up at the potential of something more here, but it just as quickly cooled off. I question if Czata has the skating and hockey sense necessary to be a defensive stalwart, but the foundations are there. I just found other players more appealing.

Jack Ivankovic - G - Brampton Steelheads (OHL)

Ivankovic has the world to beat if he wants to become an NHL goalie. There’s only one active goaltender to be sub-6’ in the NHL, Jusse Saros, and the list doesn’t improve all that much until you get out of the 6’1 range. Ivankovic’s got the troubles that are expected of goalies of that size; he struggles through traffic and rebounds and in clearing the net front. Good athlete as he is, the bar is on the ceiling. For Ivankovic to make the NHL, he either needs to become one of the most athletic goalies the world has ever seen or grow a bit and hone his technique to a polish. It’s hard to believe at this stage that Ivankovic reaches 6’2, and there are only 3 starting goalies in the NHL that currently are that height or smaller: the aforementioned Jusse Saros, Dustin Wolf, and Igor Shesterkin. Is Jack Ivankovic good enough to place himself in that conversation? We will have to wait and see.

Jack Nesbitt - F - Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

Windsor was a team I used to measure how players responded to big, physical presences all year. On a team with AJ Spellacy, Ilya Protas, Liam Greentree, and 2026 1st round hopeful Ethan Belchetz, Nesbitt just never seemed to be the best player on the ice. I never really understood the hype with him. He’s super straight-lined, to the point that at moments, I was wondering if he was consciously refusing to engage with the width of the ice. There’s a good shot and a good frame here, and he brings the size teams want out of centers, but I think that there’s a bigger project here than the size lets on. I am really curious to see how he reacts to the faster play outside the OHL.

Jacob Rombach - LD - Lincoln Stars (USHL)

Adam Kleber, Jacob Rombach is not. It’s easy to see the similarities. I had come out of my initial viewings with very similar conclusions and expectations for both hulking Lincoln defenders. Even in his draft year, though, Kleber’s skating greatly improved, and his willingness to get involved offensively was something that I enjoyed seeing develop. I don’t think Rombach has accomplished the same goal. He’s still quite slow, and while he has made improvements to get his game up to speed, the 4-way mobility and the offensive game never really captured me in a similar vein to Kleber. Sure, the profile is nice and should net him a long runway, and you might get a fine 5/6 PK defender here, but Rombach’s got to touch the puck eventually, and I don’t know if he’s got pro-projectable puck skills to be that calming presence.

Jamiro Reber - LW - HV71 (SHL, Sweden)

Well, this is annoying. I was really hoping Jamiro Reber had put it all together after his red-hot start to the season. Old habits seem to be dying hard, as the straight-lined player that I had ranked really low last year seemed to show his face again. Still, Reber’s speed and high work rate show that there IS something to work with here, and unlike a lot of overagers, we have SEEN it. If we can distill Octo-Reber and make that his full-time self, there’s a 2nd round pick, top 9 projectable forward here. I feel like in a class as weak as this one, there’s enough here to demand Reber be given a shot. The pace and intensity are just so good when they’re there. If he gets passed up again, though, I think his odds will pretty much dry up.

Jakub Dubravik - W - Vici Zilina (Slovakia)

Dubravik is a player I have time for. Another undersized, high-energy forward playing in a men’s league and showing pretty well. Dubravik has a nose for open ice and tackles his lanes with extreme prejudice. He’s got a decent shot too, and I can kind of see him as a lean finisher as an energy 3rd line option if things go great.

What’s holding Dubravik back is his ability to play in space. He gets a lot of opportunities thanks to his speed, but he’s often already locked into a decision before he even reaches the puck. He might be fast, but he doesn’t really “play fast.” Maybe this is something that he fixes as he gets comfortable playing at that speed, and you can fashion yourself a strong rush-heavy counter-attacker. He’s interesting but admittedly a bit of a long shot.

Hayden Harsanyi - F - Saskatoon Blades (WHL)

Speedy, deceptive, and pacey, Harsanyi is a monster in 1v1 situations. A lot of pro habits in his game to find in how he uses his tools on both ends of the puck, how he creates his turnovers, and moves through his progressions. I love how he challenges defenders too, constantly placing the puck in spots that make it a pain to challenge him. If the NHL was played like the 3v3 NHL Arcade mode, he’d be a first-round pick.

But it’s not (could be?), so Harsanyi has a lot to figure out. He’s small in stature, and while he can play off the puck at this level, how he handles physicality is probably something to monitor. He’s already dealt with multiple injuries in his young career, after all, and you would hope to see that diminish. But really, the issue is that of gas. The NHL is a tough league to crack. Does Harsanyi, even with all the good I see, have enough to make the NHL? I don’t know. Not yet, at least. The trajectory is good despite the flaws, and I just have to believe there’s a pro player to some extent here. Eh, he’s fun, and this is my list; who cares?

Ivan Ryabkin - C - Musekgon Lumberjacks (USHL)

I brought up the reason he’s not being ranked during my mid-season update, but to reiterate, I just do not like this player. Gone is the highly intelligent playmaker that drew my attention in his D-1 in the MHL; now Ryabkin is hooked on being this shot-heavy grinder. Absolutely 0 discipline in his game, and he is one of the dirtiest players I have seen in recent history. Slew foots, head hits, sticking his knee out—just garbage play on top of garbage play. He’s slow, his decision-making can be downright puzzling, and he’s a non-factor away from the puck. I wouldn’t be so hard on him if he didn't constantly highlight how easily he gets frustrated and ramps up his dirtiness as a response. The body language just screams to be of a person that buys into their hype way too much. I couldn’t be less surprised that some NHL teams have him as a DND, that his combine was terrible, or that he interviewed poorly. There still might be a player in Ryabkin, but absolutely not in his current form.

I do not know how you justify a player that plays like this as a top 64 option or project a person like this to become a professional, never mind dropping a first-rounder on him. I am sure some NHL team will toss a 3rd at him; hell maybe a team that ignores those risks like Vegas shows up with their 2nd, but I wouldn’t touch him. Triple-plus ungood.

Kale Dach - F - Sherwood Park Crusaders (BCHL)

I know it’s the BCHL, but I don’t think I have seen a player more involved in his team’s success than Kale Dach. The viewings I had of him were very black and white. Dach off the ice? Things go bad. Dach on the ice? Things go well. Dach ended up earning the C for Sherwood Park very quickly, and it’s not hard to see why. He was highly involved in driving play and showed some really good offensive vision and confidence that made me an instant fan. I don’t know if it’s NHL projectable, but I do hope he’s done enough to merit a draft pick anyway, even a late one. Few players this year have left as defining a positive impression, even if he needed a bit of a handicap. Going to WHL Calgary next year, maybe playing alongside someone like Ben Kindel? There should at the very least be a fun player to follow here.

Lasse Boelius - LD - Ässät (Liiga, Finland)

Can’t talk about Boelius without getting his main strength, his skating, out of the way first. It’s great, he’s fluid, mobile, sharp when he needs to be and able to outmaneuver pretty much any competition he’s faced this season. It’s a tool that helps him at both ends of the rink and made him a solid puck carrier as well. He constantly gets himself into good positions to join attacks and get out of danger along the wall. As far as movement and placement goes, I don’t think there’s much to complain about in Boelius’ game. It’s quite good.

Where it all falls apart is in what comes after. Boelius is a puck-moving defencemen that struggles to move the puck outside of skating it himself. Something that has showed up regardless of the level of competition he’s at. I think his passing game is just really underdeveloped. He doesn’t seem to acknowledge the situations he’s placing the puck into at times. Defensive coverage, location, timing, these things are important to be an effective passer and they tend to come and go in Boelius’ reads. It’s strange how this transformed throughout the year too. At the start of the year, I found that Boelius had a panic button that procs quickly and let to him rushing his passes as a result. Towards the latter end, it’s a lack of urgency and not recognizing incoming pressure that hampers Boelius. Maybe there’s a happy middle but it begs the question: Is Boelius even a puck-moving defencemen? I don’t really think so, at least not at higher levels. Things are a bit more optimistic when he is in the offensive zone, where Boelius provides value again through his good positioning to extend plays. He takes a large amount of shots but the selection has been consistently questionable in my viewings, but it’s a decent shot to have. He just doesn’t push the needle enough himself to have that impact. He’s shown ability to skate the puck, he doesn’t translate that into zone entries, often looking to move off the puck once he hits the neutral zone.

For Boelius to be an NHL option, I think focusing on the defensive side of things will be critical. And to be fair, his defensive game has had flashes of being better then he lets on. Maybe if a team can re-orient his focus towards a more stay-at-home style you can find yourself a strong two-way defencemen that can stand his own doing a bit of everything on a bottom pair? It’s an optimistic projection, sure, but it’s a fair bit more realistic then quite a few of the other defencemen in this class.

Leo Sundqivst - F - Byrnas IF (SHL, Sweden)

I love Sundqvist, and taking him off this list physically pained me. His speed is such a defined, separating skill even at the SHL level. Off the puck, Sundqvist put the fear of God in SHL defenders, nipping at their heels like a rabid dog, forcing them into quick plays with a disgusting regularity. He’s a genuine force at the defensive end too, pushing defenders off their lines and closing gaps and lanes with remarkable quickness. On the puck, Sundqvist still blazes, utilizing east-west movement to create space and using his quick movements deceptively to create small pockets of space to allow him to take plays low, all the while constantly scanning for options. Not much has translated offensively, but Sunqvist really looks like a bonafide pro.

Therein lies the problem; I just don’t know how confident I am in his scoring upside. For Sundqvist to make the NHL, he has to add an offensive dimension to separate himself, or worse yet, be so amazing off the puck that an NHL coach would dare run a 5’9 forward in their bottom six. The odds are totally stacked against him, and I don’t know if he’s got enough gas in the tank to get him over the hump, but I really, really, really hope I am hanging my head in shame for not having him ranked. I had considered him as high as 50 at one point and will be kicking myself if he works out.

Maddox Labre - LD - Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL)

I will never forgive Hadi Kalakeche for making me watch the 2024-25 Victoriaville Tigres, but ya, Labre was pretty good. He has some exciting elements and was able to create in transition, run give-and-goes, and showcase some impressive ideas. I don’t know if there’s an NHL bet to be made here; I would need to see how Labre can perform when he’s not doing… well, basically everything. His environment does definitely drag him down by virtue of not giving him much support, but it also paints him in an extremely positive light as the end-all and be-all for Victoriaville. Is Labre’s upside that high? Eh, I don’t think so, but there might be something interesting here yet.

Malte Vass - LD - Farjestad BK J20 (J20 Nationell, Sweden)

Vass was a defensively leaning, physical, smooth-skating defender that checked out across the board as fine. I feel like there are always 3/4 of these Swedish defensemen that everyone can agree on as being “fine” and move on. While he’s definitely in that tier of dudes, Vass stood out sufficiently to warrant some props here.

Mason Moe - C - Madison Capitals (USHL)

It took me a long time to come around on Mason Moe. I was not very impressed with him at the Hlinka-Gretzky, and his brief stint with the NTDP was “fine,” albeit none too revealing. It was only around the 3rd or 4th visit with Madison that Moe’s skills really started to win me over. He was clearly much more comfortable at the USHL than any other level, and while I hope to see that translate to more offensive ability next year, I’m not all too worried about it.

Moe is just a complementary player through and through at the moment. He strictly provides value through his skating and defensive mindset but still has the skill and finishing you’d want out of someone playing those elevated minutes with your team’s top player. The issue is I find Moe struggles to maintain that pace when the game around him is moving faster than he is thinking. Losing assignments and occasional lapses of spatial awareness have me believing Moe lacks the super high-end hockey sense that his role demands he have to play his style at a high level.

Still, I think the tools are here for a decent check forward. Moe has the size, skating ability, defensive gearing, and motor to make that work. All I think he’s missing is some added physicality; he doesn’t assert himself as much as I would like, but it has shown in moments, and I do believe that’s something you can develop. Moe is not the most skilled player on the ice, but he surely has enough to hang on for now. There’s enough here to take him as a low-risk/low-reward option, but I think Moe will only really be tested when he’s in the NCAA. Does he really have the gas to make UoMinnesota’s top 6? I think it’s debatable. If my list went to 97, Moe would probably be the next guy up.

Matej Pekar - F - Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

Well, this one didn’t age super well. Pekar was a player that really impressed me with his early viewings, peaking at 35th on my list back in November. The Hlinka tape showed some signs of real impressive skating ability and slippery playmaking. He played at a really high pace and was constantly pushing defenders on their heels, and when pressure came, he made quick, timely plays to alleviate that pressure. Players of this type at his size aren’t exactly rare, but what made Pekar stand out for me was his ability to protect himself. He was especially good at absorbing contact along the wall and then using his feet to carry himself out of the defenders range after impact to ensure he doesn’t get pinned. It wasn’t perfect, but it was definitely something that noticeably improved as he got more comfortable during that tournament. The thought process of the time was, “He’ll need to adjust to the NA game when he gets to Seattle, but surely a player this skilled figures it all out.”

Nailed the first part; the second one never really came. Pekar still had flashes of the really high-end playmaker that I saw, but he struggled to settle in and was very come-and-go all year. He still was a very important player for Czechia at the U18s and looked fine, but I have slowly talked myself off of him as the year went on. I still think there’s an interesting player here. Pekar is one of the youngest players in the draft class and is showing that promise at times, but is it really enough to land himself in an NHL top 6 or top 9? I don’t know. I need convincing, but Pekar has the runway to do so.

Matus Lisy - LD - HK Nitra (Slovakia)

Yet another defensively leaning, smooth-skating physical player, but Lisy stands out a bit as having put up quite good results in the Slovak men’s league while also being an anchor for Slovakia internationally throughout the season. He’s “fine” for now, but there were definitely sparks of high-end ideas that made Lisy drag my attention a good deal more than a handful of defenders I haven’t ranked. He’s neat.

Michael Pradel - G - Tri-City Storm (USHL)

Speaking of last-second additions, I don’t think there’s a player I regret not having watched earlier in the year more than Michael Pradel. Standing at a Ravensburgian 6’5, Pradel is similarly huge in his net and really knows how to make use of that size. In the little I’ve seen, he’s shown to be great on his pivots but can be a bit leaky when facing shooters that can target his holes. His issues with rebound control and play down low are not unique to him, but they are areas I think can see serious improvement quickly, as the foundations for it are there if he can just be a smidge quicker on his reactions. I believe there’s some serious breakout potential here.

Mikhail Fyodorov - W - Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk (MHL, Russia)

Fyodorov was an early candidate for my “Russian of the year” before the draft sort of emerged around him. He’s a very solid off-puck player who plays the game at remarkable speed. However, he’s definitely a junior player if there ever was one. Not a lot of foresight in his actions, and he ends up killing the majority of the plays he gets. His late-season stints in the VHL and KHL both confirmed my fears of Fyodorov really lacking pretty much everything he needs to compete at the men’s level at the moment. However, there’s some flash in his game and some creativity to work with here. He’s a super long shot, but he may just reward a team patient enough. If nothing else, he was fun to watch.

Nathan Quinn - C - Quebec Remparts (QMJHL)

Quinn has been a lock for this spot since I first watched him back in January. A remarkably detailed two-way forward who’s not afraid to use every inch and pound he has. Driving the net, battling in scrums, outworking every defender he comes across. Not to say he’s all guts, Quinn is remarkably intelligent too. Fantastic understanding of playing and applying pressure, plays to the middle with some added sneakiness, and regularly responsible for neutral zone stops. A very appealing combination that is rightly due for some attention.

If Quinn were over 6’, I think he would be a consensus top 64 (maybe even a late first) option with a very easy bottom 6 projection, but that’s just a hard sell on someone who lacks the physical attributes and who doesn’t have his body of work against what some of the tougher junior leagues provide. The odds aren’t in his favor historically, but he’s one growth spurt away from being a solid NHL option and might just beat the odds regardless.

Ondrej Stebetak - G - Portland Winterhawks (WHL)

Stebetak barely hit my radar for most of the year, but his campaign in the WHL playoffs was nothing short of exemplary. He definitely knows how to play to his outs and has the athleticism and size to cover huge swathes of the net with his reach. The highlight reel genuinely speaks for itself. I do think he can stand to be a bit more technically sound. His puck-tracking ability is a bit behind that of his peers, and he can sink into his crease a little too easily. Still, I would be shocked to see him get passed up on, despite being a relatively recent revelation. It was too little too late to get onto my board, but I imagine people who have had their eye on him throughout the year are sure to be very positive on him.

Owen Griffin - F - Oshawa Generals (OHL)

Griffin’s been a bit of a revelation in the OHL playoffs. He’s abundantly skilled and plays a strong 200-foot game to facilitate teammates. I love his work rate, and his rush game saw a bit of evolution as the season went along. The primary concern regarding his projection has always been his reliance on operating in open space. However, if he has managed to score points against teams that are typically adept at eliminating that space, it could suggest that he has made significant progress.

Richard Gallant - LW - U18 USNTDP

A small, chippy winger that consistently rose above play, Gallant was the classic undersized workhorse of the NTDP. It’s a tried and true archetype to win people like me over. Gallant consistently impressed with his remarkably good lower body strength to protect the puck, find quick passes, and just play some good ol’ grind-it-out hockey. The lack of size means that he’s unlikely to realize that game as an NHLer, but the work rate was definitely enough to warrant consideration. There were whole games where Gallant was the best player on this NTDP team.

Tomas Poletin - LW - Pelicans (Liiga, Finland)

Poletin is … a guy. And he knows it. So he makes up for it with a lot of hard work. He’s a pest down low, and at the net, he battles; he goes to the net, and when he’s done that, he battles some more.

I think we saw Poletin’s best as he dressed up for Czechia internationally. Being the muscle for Adam Benak let him play to his strengths. Which is going to the boards and going to the net and then going to the boards some more. To do that, Poletin had to showcase respectable speed and anticipation, and they are there in his game. He reads opponents well and can devastate them in open ice if he gives them the chance. Outside of that, blocking shots, playing the PK, typical guy stuff. Useful stuff. But very “guy”-esque.

For the longest time I was confident that Poletin was going to be able to translate this to the pro game and be a physical 4th line option for an NHL team. But oh me oh my, I don’t know what to think after watching Poletin in his home league. The games I caught of him were mostly the relegation series between Jukurit and Pelicans, and those games were not very good. Expectedly so, but still amazing to see. Regardless, even in this context, where play was sloppy and disorganized, Poletin still faded into the background. I couldn’t help but wonder, if Poletin can’t stick out, even in a set of games like this, where and when does he?

The thoughts that question brought about never really went away, and I have soured on Poletin heavily since. I still think there’s a floor to work with here, and it’s a chance worth taking, but expectations need to be properly adjusted.

Tyler Hopkins - C - Kingston Frontenacs

Hopkins brings the speed and energy to consistently pull attention. He covers ice really well and brings solid off-puck habits to strong playmaking ability. He’s been a noticeable forechecker during his time too. My main issue with Hopkins is that I find him too honest. He’s not so fast that he’s able to separate consistently, and his puck skills leave a bit to be desired. There may be a bottom-six forward here; Hopkins is smart enough to realize that, but I’d like to see more bite in his game before staking a flag.

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That concludes the ranking! Thanks for making it this far!

As a reward, here’s another fun tool to play with. In case you missed the tweet, I have been keeping track of my rankings monthly and made a quick visualisation for everyone who has been in my first round at some point this year. I found it was a good way to show the ebbs and flows of the draft year and I found it to be pretty neat! Go take a look by clicking >here!<

This year was a massive undertaking that saw me touch base with 250 players, a new personal high and I’m glad to have been able to put it all together in time for the draft (albeit, a bit too close for my liking.) Definitely learned a lot in how to min/max my time, something that I will be using to mix up my approach going into next year so as to make my yearly proceedings a bit more methodical. I sort of just chose who to watch at random this year and set my sights a little too wide for what I was reasonably able to cover as a result.

Still, it was a ton of fun that saw me learn a lot, egnage with a bunch of new people and have a ton of inspiring conversations. I’ve still got stuff in the oven and will hope to show it all soon, but stay tuned for the time being! Next year promises to be an insanely exciting draft and I can’t wait to dive into it.

Thanks again for your attention and the support, you’re the best, you’re the best, you’re the best (yes, specifically you). I’ll see you guys in September! Maybe!